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Marshall Burke, Stanford University, Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, USA, Stanford University, Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, USA, National Bureau of Economic Research, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, USA, Mustafa Zahid, Stanford University, Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, USA, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Stanford University, Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, USA, Solomon Hsiang, Stanford University, Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University, Stanford, USA, National Bureau of Economic Research, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, USA
Climate change is causing measurable harm globally1,2. Political and legal efforts seek to link these damages with specific emissions, including in discussions of loss and damage (L&D)3,4; however, no quantitative definition of L&D exists5,6, nor is there a framework to link past and future emissions from specific sources to monetized, location-specific damages. Here we develop such a framework, which is integrated with recent efforts to estimate the social cost of carbon7. Using empirical estimates of the non-linear relationship between temperature and aggregate economic output, we show that future damages from past emissions—one component of L&D—are at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions. For instance, one tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 caused US$180 in discounted global damages by 2020 ($40–530) and will cause an additional $1,840 through 2100 ($500–5,700). Thus, settling debts for past damages will not settle debts for past emissions. In other illustrative esti
