.Contribution to (a) effective radiative forcing (ERF) and (b) global surface temperature change from component emissions for1750–2019based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and (c) net aerosol ERF for 1750–2014 from different lines of evidence.
Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves1,2, raising concerns about the future impacts of climate change and the associated socioeconomic costs3,4. Here we develop a disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological and hybrid input–output and computable general equilibrium global trade models to estimate the midcentury socioeconomic impacts of heat stress. We consider health costs related to heat exposure, the value of heat-induced labour productivity loss and indirect losses due to economic disruptions cascading through supply chains. Here we show that the global annual incremental gross domestic product loss increases exponentially from 0.03 ± 0.01 (SSP 245)–0.05 ± 0.03 (SSP 585) percentage points during 2030–2040 to 0.05 ± 0.01–0.15 ± 0.04 percentage points during 2050–2060. By 2060, the expected global economic losses reach a total of 0.6–4.6% with losses attributed to health loss (37–45%), labour productivity loss (18–37%) and i
Background Scientists have raised concerns about whether high-income countries, with their high per-capita CO2 emissions, can decarbonise fast enough to meet their obligations under the Paris Agreement if they continue to pursue aggregate economic growth. Over the past decade, some countries have reduced their CO2 emissions while increasing their gross domestic product (absolute decoupling). Politicians and media have hailed this as green growth. In this empirical study, we aimed to assess whether these achievements are consistent with the Paris Agreement, and whether Paris-compliant decoupling is within reach.
Mémoire de Fin d'Études présenté par DUPONT, Victor-Henry en vue de l'obtention du grade académique de Master en Sciences et Gestion de l'Environnement Finalité Gestion de l’Environnement M-ENVIG Année Académique : 2022-2023
L'élection du Bureau du GIEC en vue du 7e cycle de rédactions de rapport a lieu fin juillet 2023. Le bureau comporte 34 membres. Il est responsable de gérer le processus de rédaction de rapports et de conseiller l’assemblée des États membres dans la prise de décision, tout en supervisant la qualité des travaux scientifiques et de la communication. Jean-Pascal van Ypersele est candidat à la Présidence, avec le soutien de la Belgique. Nous lui avons demandé d’exposer ses motivations et sa vision pour le GIEC. L'interview a été réalisée par Alain Tondeur (Plateforme wallone pour le GIEC) et Soumaya Majdoub (Centre climat belge, membre de l’équipe de campagne de Jean-Pascal van Ypersele).
Although humans have long been predators with enduring nutritive and cultural relationships with their prey, seldom have conservation ecologists considered the divergent predatory behavior of contemporary, industrialized humans. Recognizing that the number, strength and diversity of predator-prey relationships can profoundly influence biodiversity, here we analyze humanity’s modern day predatory interactions with vertebrates and estimate their ecological consequences. Analysing IUCN ‘use and trade’ data for ~47,000 species, we show that fishers, hunters and other animal collectors prey on more than a third (~15,000 species) of Earth’s vertebrates. Assessed over equivalent ranges, humans exploit up to 300 times more species than comparable non-human predators. Exploitation for the pet trade, medicine, and other uses now affects almost as many species as those targeted for food consumption, and almost 40% of exploited species are threatened by human use. Trait space analyses show that birds and mammals threaten
Terrestrial ecosystems have taken up about 32% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the past six decades1. Large uncertainties in terrestrial carbon–climate feedbacks, however, make it difficult to predict how the land carbon sink will respond to future climate change2. Interannual variations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) are dominated by land–atmosphere carbon fluxes in the tropics, providing an opportunity to explore land carbon–climate interactions3–6. It is thought that variations in CGR are largely controlled by temperature7–10 but there is also evidence for a tight coupling between water availability and CGR11. Here, we use a record of global atmospheric CO2, terrestrial water storage and precipitation data to investigate changes in the interannual relationship between tropical land climate conditions and CGR under a changing climate. We find that the interannual relationship between tropical water availability and CGR became increasingly negative during 1989–2018 compared to 1960–1989
Flash drought, characterized by unusually rapid drying, can have substantial impact on many socioeconomic sectors, particularly agriculture. However, potential changes to flash drought risk in a warming climate remain unknown. In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model simulations. We find that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel usage. Flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America (change in annual risk from 32% in 2015 to 49% in 2100) and Europe (32% to 53%) in the most extreme emissions scenario. Following low-end and medium scenarios compared to high-end scenarios indicates a notable reduction in annual flash drought risk over cropland. Flash droughts are projected to become more frequent unde
WMO's annual State of the Climate in Europe report explores changes in climate indicators, extreme events and climate policy.
Potential external cost savings associated with the reduction of animal-sourced foods remain poorly understood. Here we combine life cycle assessment principles and monetarization factors to estimate the monetary worth of damage to human health and ecosystems caused by the environmental impacts of food production. We find that, globally, approximately US$2 of production-related external costs were embedded in every dollar of food expenditure in 2018—corresponding to US$14.0 trillion of externalities. A dietary shift away from animal-sourced foods could greatly reduce these ‘hidden’ costs, saving up to US$7.3 trillion worth of production-related health burden and ecosystem degradation while curbing carbon emissions. By comparing the health effects of dietary change from the consumption versus the production of food, we also show that omitting the latter means underestimating the benefits of more plant-based diets. Our analysis reveals the substantial potential of dietary change, particularly in high and upper-
La Niña is present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. La Niña is expected to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023. In February-April 2023, there is a 71% chance of ENSO-neutral.*
Global CO2 emissions for 2022 increased by 1.5% relative to 2021 (+7.9% and +2.0% relative to 2020 and 2019, respectively), reaching 36.1 GtCO2. These 2022 emissions consumed 13%–36% of the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5 °C, suggesting permissible emissions could be depleted within 2–7 years (67% likelihood).
Emmanuel Todd analyse les rouages méconnus de la guerre en Ukraine, qui s'étend de plus en plus vite au monde entier....
The summary for policymakers (SPM) and the chapters of the Methodological assessment regarding the diverse conceptualization of multiple values of nature and its benefits, including biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services (referred to as the “assessment of the diverse values and valuation of nature”), were approved and accepted respectively by the IPBES Plenary during its ninth session, held from 3 to 9 July 2022 in Bonn, Germany. The background of this assessment dates to 2013, when at its second session (IPBES 2) in Antalya, Turkey, the IPBES Plenary approved the initiation of scoping for a methodological assessment. During the third session of the IPBES plenary, in Bonn, Germany in 2015, the expert group established for scoping the methodological assessment and developing a preliminary guide, was requested to revise the scoping report for the methodological assessment based on comments received following an open review by Governments and stakeholders. At IPBES 4, in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in 2016
Energy return on investment (EROI) is a biophysical and ecological economics concept that is useful to think about how organisms, ecosystems and societies must obtain enough surplus energy returned from energy gathering activities to live, reproduce, and thrive. EROI can help us overcome the false dualism between nature and society. EROI is a useful metric for economics because it is based on immutable physical laws rather than sometimes arbitrary human preferences. It is essential for assessing useful power, energy trade-offs, efficiencies (and inefficiencies), resource depletion trends, resource quality, and surplus potentials of different fuels and technologies that power, or might power, our socio-economic systems. Apparent inconsistencies in the literature can generally be reduced or eliminated by paying careful attention and explicitly stating boundaries and definitions. We argue that proper use of EROI is critical to understand the interconnections among the environment, energy, and socio-economic deve
Le réchauffement climatique au cinéma. Le nouvel enseignement de spécialité en Première et Terminale offre de nombreuses possibilités pédagogiques. L’utilisation du cinéma permet ainsi de poser un double regard sur les problématiques climatiques, à l’image du chef-d’œuvre de Richard Fleisher, Soleil Vert (1973).
L’urgence climatique, le dépassement des limites planétaires et l’accroissement des inégalités sociales nécessitent d’interroger nos besoins et nos usages actuels en ressources énergétiques fossiles et en matières premières. Pour répondre à ces défis, une transition profonde et rapide de notre système énergétique carboné, non renouvelable et dispendieux vers un modèle fondé sur la sobriété et des ressources renouvelables est nécessaire. La sobriété constitue la pierre angulaire d’une transition énergétique et écologique socialement juste. Elle peut devenir une véritable boussole pour la mise en place de politiques publiques robustes favorisant la qualité de vie tout en répondant aux défis énergétiques, économiques et démocratiques du XXIe siècle. Les collectivités ont un rôle clé à jouer pour accompagner ces évolutions à l’échelle locale et construire des projets de territoires sobres et résilients. Coordonnée et élaboré par Virage Énergie en partenariat avec le Cédis (centre de formation), cet ouvrage a pour
Persistent heat extremes can have severe impacts on ecosystems and societies, including excess mortality, wildfires, and harvest failures. Here we identify Europe as a heatwave hotspot, exhibiting upward trends that are three-to-four times faster compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes over the past 42 years. This accelerated trend is linked to atmospheric dynamical changes via an increase in the frequency and persistence of double jet stream states over Eurasia. We find that double jet occurrences are particularly important for western European heatwaves, explaining up to 35% of temperature variability. The upward trend in the persistence of double jet events explains almost all of the accelerated heatwave trend in western Europe, and about 30% of it over the extended European region. Those findings provide evidence that in addition to thermodynamical drivers, atmospheric dynamical changes have contributed to the increased rate of European heatwaves, with implications for risk management and potent
Conference: Doctorales 2022 de la Société Française des Sciences de l'Information et de la Communication (SFSIC)At: Dijon
The publication provides a summary on the state of the climate indicators in 2021 including global temperatures trends and its distribution around the globe; most recent finding on Green House Gases concentration, Ocean indicators; Cryosphere with a particular emphasis on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice, greenland ice sheet and glaciers and snow cover; Stratospheric Ozone; analysis of major drivers of inter-annual climate variability during the year including the El Niño Souther Oscillation and other Ocean and Atmshperic indices; global precipitation distribution over land; extreme events including those related to tropical cyclones and wind storms; flooding, drought and extreme heat and cold events. The publication also provides most recent finding on climate related risks and impacts including on food security, humanitarian and population displacement aspects and impact on ecosystems.
Researchers must try to resolve a dispute on the best way to use and care for Earth’s resources. Fifty years ago this month, the System Dynamics group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge had a stark message for the world: continued economic and population growth would deplete Earth’s resources and lead to global economic collapse by 2070. This finding was from their 200-page book The Limits to Growth, one of the first modelling studies to forecast the environmental and social impacts of industrialization.
Plateforme wallonne pour le GIEC - Lettre n°24 - Édition spéciale - Février 2022 - Aperçu du Résumé pour les décideurs
The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond.
Emerging ice-sheet modeling suggests once initiated, retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) can continue for centuries. Unfortunately, the short observational record cannot resolve the tipping points, rate of change, and timescale of responses. Iceberg-rafted debris data from Iceberg Alley identify eight retreat phases after the Last Glacial Maximum that each destabilized the AIS within a decade, contributing to global sea-level rise for centuries to a millennium, which subsequently re-stabilized equally rapidly.
As a leading climate scientist, Paola Arias doesn’t need to look far to see the world changing. Shifting rain patterns threaten water supplies in her home city of Medellín, Colombia, while rising sea levels endanger the country’s coastline. She isn’t confident that international leaders will slow global warming or that her own government can handle the expected fallout, such as mass migrations and civil unrest over rising inequality. With such an uncertain future, she thought hard several years ago about whether to have children.
An extreme technologically adapted future has not been defined in the literature. Such a future could be argued to be morally justifiable.However, a highly technologically mediated relationship with the biosphere introduces unique risks. These are likely to endanger humanity and future Earth-originating life-forms as well as creating moral hazard. An extreme technologically adapted future is therefore undesirable compared to restabilising the biosphere.
Il a pour objectif de fournir des éléments pour l’action permettant de construire des stratégies locales de résilience.
This Summary for Policymakers (SPM) presents key findings of the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)1 on the physical science basis of climate change. The report builds upon the 2013 Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the 2018–2019 IPCC Special Reports2 of the AR6 cycle and incorporates subsequent new evidence from climate science3.
The Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is the approved version from the 14th session of Working Group I and 54th Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and remains subject to final copy-editing and layout.
Plants should be flourishing in these ocean waters with plenty of nutrients and inorganic carbon in the form carbonic acid. It could be possible the phytoplankton are missing key nutrients such as ferric, but why should this be happening now?
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