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Tipping
Delegates made minimal headway on timetable for replacing oil and gas or on firm commitments to reducing carbon emissions
Les récifs coralliens ont franchi un "point de basculement" climatique
It looked like snow under water: white, endless, and still. The reef, my friend Lisbeth said, was “the most beautiful thing she’d ever seen.” For a second, I almost agreed. Then, I stared at it for a long time before replying. She wasn’t wrong about its beauty. But she was also showing me death. Bleached coral isn’t a kind of coral. It’s the moment just after the funeral, what’s left when life is gone. A cathedral of bone-white skeletons stretching over an empire of calcified death. From above, it glows like marble. Up close, it’s a graveyard.
GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS REPORT 2025 - Summary
GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS REPORT - 2025
Avec l'agonie des récifs coralliens, le premier point de basculement climatique a été franchi. C'est ce qu'annoncent lundi 160 scientifiques dans le Global Tipping Points Report.
L’humanité a trop déstabilisé le climat, au point de l’avoir rapproché de « points de bascule » au potentiel cataclysmique, alertent 160 scientifiques dans un nouveau rapport.
Unless global heating is reduced to 1.2C ‘as fast as possible’, warm water coral reefs will not remain ‘at any meaningful scale’, a report by 160 scientists from 23 countries warns
Four key parts of the Earth’s climate system are destabilising, according to a new study with contributions from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Researchers analysed the interconnections of four major tipping elements: the Greenland ice sheet, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the South American monsoon system. All four show signs of diminished resilience, raising the risk of abrupt and potentially irreversible changes.
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important tipping element in the climate system. There is a large uncertainty whether the AMOC will start to collapse during the century under future climate change, as this requires long climate model simulations which are not always available. Here, we analyze targeted climate model simulations done with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the aim to develop a physics-based indicator for the onset of an AMOC tipping event. This indicator is diagnosed from the surface buoyancy fluxes over the North Atlantic Ocean and is performing successfully under quasi-equilibrium freshwater forcing, freshwater pulse forcing, climate change scenarios, and for different climate models. An analysis consisting of 25 different climate models shows that the AMOC could begin to collapse by 2063 (from 2026 to 2095, to percentiles) under an intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), or by 2055 (from 2023 to 2076, to percentiles) under a high-end emission scenar
There is rising concern that several parts of the Earth system may abruptly transition to alternative stable states in response to anthropogenic climate and land-use change. Key candidates of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the South American monsoon system and the Amazon rainforest. Owing to the complex dynamics and feedbacks between them via oceanic and atmospheric coupling, the levels of anthropogenic forcing at which transitions to alternative states can be expected remain uncertain. Here we demonstrate how such interactions can generate spurious signals and potentially mask genuine signs of destabilization. We further review and present observation-based evidence that the stability of these four tipping elements has declined in recent decades, suggesting that they have moved towards their critical thresholds, which may be crossed within the range of unmitigated anthropogenic warming. Our results call for better monitoring of these ti
Les vagues de chaleur marine pourraient avoir conduit les océans de la planète à un point de basculement critique. Les scientifiques craignent que le réchauffement prolongé des océans ne devienne la "nouvelle normalité".
EN
‘This is a fight for life’: climate expert on tipping points, doomerism and using wealth as a shield
- Jonathan Watts,Genevieve Guenther,Economic assumptions about risks of the climate crisis are no longer relevant, says the communications expert Genevieve Guenther
The world has been too optimistic about the risk to humanity and planet – but devastation can still be avoided, says Timothy Lenton
Despite working on polar science for the British Antarctic Survey for 20 years, Louise Sime finds the magnitude of potential sea-level rise hard to comprehend
Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics os the Ocean at the University of Potsdam since 2000, presents a colloquium on the risks associated with the destabilization of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its potential consequences for the global climate.
Recent simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) indicate that a tipping event of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would cause Europe to cool by several degrees. This AMOC tipping event was found under constant pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing, while global warming likely limits this AMOC-induced cooling response. Here, we quantify the European temperature responses under different AMOC regimes and climate change scenarios. A strongly reduced AMOC state and intermediate global warming (C, Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) has a profound cooling effect on Northwestern Europe with more intense cold extremes. The largest temperature responses are found during the winter months and these responses are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic sea-ice extent. Enhanced North Atlantic storm track activity under an AMOC collapse results in substantially larger day-to-day temperature fluctuations. We conclude that the (far) future European temperatures are dependent o
The planet is edging close to irreversible change, according to the most comprehensive probability analysis yet of climate “tipping points.”
We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and how they are altered by including the additional carbon emissions that could arise from tipping points within the Earth's carbon cycle. The crossing of a climate tipping point at a threshold level of global mean surface temperature (threshold temperature) would commit the affected subsystem of the Earth to abrupt and largely irreversible changes with negative impacts on human well-being. However, it remains unclear which tipping points would be triggered under the different SSPs due to uncertainties in the climate sensitivity to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the threshold temperatures and timescales of climate tipping points, and the response of tipping points within the Earth's carbon cycle to global warming. We include those uncertainties in our analysis to derive probabilities of triggering for 16 previously identified climate tipping points within the Earth system.
Tipping elements within the Earth system are increasingly well understood. Scientists have identified more than 25 parts of the Earth’s climate system that are likely to have “tipping points” – thresholds where a small additional change in global warming will cause them to irreversibly shift into a new state. The “tipping” of these systems – which include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the Greenland ice sheet – would have profound consequences for both the biosphere and people. More recent research suggests that triggering one tipping element could cause subsequent changes in other tipping elements, potentially leading to a “tipping cascade”. For example, a collapsed AMOC could lead to dieback of the Amazon rainforest and hasten the melt of the Greenland ice sheet.
Lenton, the founding director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, was the lead author of the 2008 paper that formally introduced the idea of tipping points in the Earth’s climate system.
Global risk management for human prosperity
Thousands of Greenland's crystal-clear blue lakes have turned a murky brown thanks to global warming — and the worst part is that they've started emitting carbon dioxide. Record heat and rain in 2022 pushed the lakes of West Greenland past a tipping point, so rather than absorbing carbon dioxide (CO₂), they began to emit it into the atmosphere, according to a new study.
The year 2024 wasn’t just another chapter in the unfolding climate saga; it felt like the plot twist no one wanted to believe. For decades, climate scientists warned of ifs — if we pass this tipping…
De metafoor van het 'tipping point' of 'kantelpunt' is contraproductief in de context van de klimaatopwarming, argumenteert een groep wetenschappers in het vakblad Nature. Het concept kan mensen in verwarring brengen en actie in de weg staan, denken de onderzoekers.
Franchir les points de bascule écologiques aurait un coût économique gigantesque, selon plusieurs études scientifiques récentes. Des données qui rappellent l’urgence d’atténuer la crise écologique avant d’être face à des conséquences irréversibles en cascade.
Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why Amoc breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life
We're nearly halfway through the 2020s, dubbed the most decisive decade for action on climate change. Where exactly do things stand? Climate impact scholar Johan Rockström offers the most up-to-date scientific assessment of the state of the planet and explains what must be done to preserve Earth's resilience to human pressure.
Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements.
Nous voici arrivés à la moitié de la décennie 2020, celle qui est censée être décisive pour l'action contre le changement climatique. Mais où en sommes-nous exactement ? Johan Rockström est un universitaire spécialisé dans l'impact climatique. Il nous présente l'évaluation scientifique la plus récente sur l'état de notre planète et explique ce que nous devons faire pour préserver la résilience de la Terre face à la pression humaine.
Traduction(s) terminée(s) :
filtre:
Tipping
22 novembre 2025
Delegates made minimal headway on timetable for replacing oil and gas or on firm commitments to reducing carbon emissions
22 octobre 2025
Les récifs coralliens ont franchi un "point de basculement" climatique
16 octobre 2025
It looked like snow under water: white, endless, and still. The reef, my friend Lisbeth said, was “the most beautiful thing she’d ever seen.” For a second, I almost agreed. Then, I stared at it for a long time before replying. She wasn’t wrong about its beauty. But she was also showing me death. Bleached coral isn’t a kind of coral. It’s the moment just after the funeral, what’s left when life is gone. A cathedral of bone-white skeletons stretching over an empire of calcified death. From above, it glows like marble. Up close, it’s a graveyard.
13 octobre 2025
GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS REPORT 2025 - Summary
GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS REPORT - 2025
Avec l'agonie des récifs coralliens, le premier point de basculement climatique a été franchi. C'est ce qu'annoncent lundi 160 scientifiques dans le Global Tipping Points Report.
12 octobre 2025
L’humanité a trop déstabilisé le climat, au point de l’avoir rapproché de « points de bascule » au potentiel cataclysmique, alertent 160 scientifiques dans un nouveau rapport.
Unless global heating is reduced to 1.2C ‘as fast as possible’, warm water coral reefs will not remain ‘at any meaningful scale’, a report by 160 scientists from 23 countries warns
01 octobre 2025
Four key parts of the Earth’s climate system are destabilising, according to a new study with contributions from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Researchers analysed the interconnections of four major tipping elements: the Greenland ice sheet, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the South American monsoon system. All four show signs of diminished resilience, raising the risk of abrupt and potentially irreversible changes.
24 août 2025
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important tipping element in the climate system. There is a large uncertainty whether the AMOC will start to collapse during the century under future climate change, as this requires long climate model simulations which are not always available. Here, we analyze targeted climate model simulations done with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the aim to develop a physics-based indicator for the onset of an AMOC tipping event. This indicator is diagnosed from the surface buoyancy fluxes over the North Atlantic Ocean and is performing successfully under quasi-equilibrium freshwater forcing, freshwater pulse forcing, climate change scenarios, and for different climate models. An analysis consisting of 25 different climate models shows that the AMOC could begin to collapse by 2063 (from 2026 to 2095, to percentiles) under an intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), or by 2055 (from 2023 to 2076, to percentiles) under a high-end emission scenar
05 août 2025
There is rising concern that several parts of the Earth system may abruptly transition to alternative stable states in response to anthropogenic climate and land-use change. Key candidates of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the South American monsoon system and the Amazon rainforest. Owing to the complex dynamics and feedbacks between them via oceanic and atmospheric coupling, the levels of anthropogenic forcing at which transitions to alternative states can be expected remain uncertain. Here we demonstrate how such interactions can generate spurious signals and potentially mask genuine signs of destabilization. We further review and present observation-based evidence that the stability of these four tipping elements has declined in recent decades, suggesting that they have moved towards their critical thresholds, which may be crossed within the range of unmitigated anthropogenic warming. Our results call for better monitoring of these ti
29 juillet 2025
Les vagues de chaleur marine pourraient avoir conduit les océans de la planète à un point de basculement critique. Les scientifiques craignent que le réchauffement prolongé des océans ne devienne la "nouvelle normalité".
29 juin 2025
EN
‘This is a fight for life’: climate expert on tipping points, doomerism and using wealth as a shield
- Jonathan Watts,Genevieve Guenther,Economic assumptions about risks of the climate crisis are no longer relevant, says the communications expert Genevieve Guenther
28 juin 2025
The world has been too optimistic about the risk to humanity and planet – but devastation can still be avoided, says Timothy Lenton
27 juin 2025
Despite working on polar science for the British Antarctic Survey for 20 years, Louise Sime finds the magnitude of potential sea-level rise hard to comprehend
24 juin 2025
Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics os the Ocean at the University of Potsdam since 2000, presents a colloquium on the risks associated with the destabilization of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its potential consequences for the global climate.
11 juin 2025
Recent simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) indicate that a tipping event of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would cause Europe to cool by several degrees. This AMOC tipping event was found under constant pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing, while global warming likely limits this AMOC-induced cooling response. Here, we quantify the European temperature responses under different AMOC regimes and climate change scenarios. A strongly reduced AMOC state and intermediate global warming (C, Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) has a profound cooling effect on Northwestern Europe with more intense cold extremes. The largest temperature responses are found during the winter months and these responses are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic sea-ice extent. Enhanced North Atlantic storm track activity under an AMOC collapse results in substantially larger day-to-day temperature fluctuations. We conclude that the (far) future European temperatures are dependent o
28 avril 2025
The planet is edging close to irreversible change, according to the most comprehensive probability analysis yet of climate “tipping points.”
23 avril 2025
We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and how they are altered by including the additional carbon emissions that could arise from tipping points within the Earth's carbon cycle. The crossing of a climate tipping point at a threshold level of global mean surface temperature (threshold temperature) would commit the affected subsystem of the Earth to abrupt and largely irreversible changes with negative impacts on human well-being. However, it remains unclear which tipping points would be triggered under the different SSPs due to uncertainties in the climate sensitivity to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the threshold temperatures and timescales of climate tipping points, and the response of tipping points within the Earth's carbon cycle to global warming. We include those uncertainties in our analysis to derive probabilities of triggering for 16 previously identified climate tipping points within the Earth system.
15 avril 2025
Tipping elements within the Earth system are increasingly well understood. Scientists have identified more than 25 parts of the Earth’s climate system that are likely to have “tipping points” – thresholds where a small additional change in global warming will cause them to irreversibly shift into a new state. The “tipping” of these systems – which include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the Greenland ice sheet – would have profound consequences for both the biosphere and people. More recent research suggests that triggering one tipping element could cause subsequent changes in other tipping elements, potentially leading to a “tipping cascade”. For example, a collapsed AMOC could lead to dieback of the Amazon rainforest and hasten the melt of the Greenland ice sheet.
12 mars 2025
Lenton, the founding director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, was the lead author of the 2008 paper that formally introduced the idea of tipping points in the Earth’s climate system.
30 janvier 2025
Global risk management for human prosperity
24 janvier 2025
Thousands of Greenland's crystal-clear blue lakes have turned a murky brown thanks to global warming — and the worst part is that they've started emitting carbon dioxide. Record heat and rain in 2022 pushed the lakes of West Greenland past a tipping point, so rather than absorbing carbon dioxide (CO₂), they began to emit it into the atmosphere, according to a new study.
29 décembre 2024
The year 2024 wasn’t just another chapter in the unfolding climate saga; it felt like the plot twist no one wanted to believe. For decades, climate scientists warned of ifs — if we pass this tipping…
10 décembre 2024
De metafoor van het 'tipping point' of 'kantelpunt' is contraproductief in de context van de klimaatopwarming, argumenteert een groep wetenschappers in het vakblad Nature. Het concept kan mensen in verwarring brengen en actie in de weg staan, denken de onderzoekers.
01 décembre 2024
Franchir les points de bascule écologiques aurait un coût économique gigantesque, selon plusieurs études scientifiques récentes. Des données qui rappellent l’urgence d’atténuer la crise écologique avant d’être face à des conséquences irréversibles en cascade.
23 octobre 2024
Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why Amoc breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life
15 août 2024
We're nearly halfway through the 2020s, dubbed the most decisive decade for action on climate change. Where exactly do things stand? Climate impact scholar Johan Rockström offers the most up-to-date scientific assessment of the state of the planet and explains what must be done to preserve Earth's resilience to human pressure.
01 août 2024
Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements.
26 juillet 2024
Nous voici arrivés à la moitié de la décennie 2020, celle qui est censée être décisive pour l'action contre le changement climatique. Mais où en sommes-nous exactement ? Johan Rockström est un universitaire spécialisé dans l'impact climatique. Il nous présente l'évaluation scientifique la plus récente sur l'état de notre planète et explique ce que nous devons faire pour préserver la résilience de la Terre face à la pression humaine.
Propositions diverses :
filtre:
Tipping
22 novembre 2025
Delegates made minimal headway on timetable for replacing oil and gas or on firm commitments to reducing carbon emissions
22 octobre 2025
Les récifs coralliens ont franchi un "point de basculement" climatique
16 octobre 2025
It looked like snow under water: white, endless, and still. The reef, my friend Lisbeth said, was “the most beautiful thing she’d ever seen.” For a second, I almost agreed. Then, I stared at it for a long time before replying. She wasn’t wrong about its beauty. But she was also showing me death. Bleached coral isn’t a kind of coral. It’s the moment just after the funeral, what’s left when life is gone. A cathedral of bone-white skeletons stretching over an empire of calcified death. From above, it glows like marble. Up close, it’s a graveyard.
13 octobre 2025
GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS REPORT 2025 - Summary
GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS REPORT - 2025
Avec l'agonie des récifs coralliens, le premier point de basculement climatique a été franchi. C'est ce qu'annoncent lundi 160 scientifiques dans le Global Tipping Points Report.
12 octobre 2025
L’humanité a trop déstabilisé le climat, au point de l’avoir rapproché de « points de bascule » au potentiel cataclysmique, alertent 160 scientifiques dans un nouveau rapport.
Unless global heating is reduced to 1.2C ‘as fast as possible’, warm water coral reefs will not remain ‘at any meaningful scale’, a report by 160 scientists from 23 countries warns
01 octobre 2025
Four key parts of the Earth’s climate system are destabilising, according to a new study with contributions from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Researchers analysed the interconnections of four major tipping elements: the Greenland ice sheet, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the South American monsoon system. All four show signs of diminished resilience, raising the risk of abrupt and potentially irreversible changes.
24 août 2025
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important tipping element in the climate system. There is a large uncertainty whether the AMOC will start to collapse during the century under future climate change, as this requires long climate model simulations which are not always available. Here, we analyze targeted climate model simulations done with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the aim to develop a physics-based indicator for the onset of an AMOC tipping event. This indicator is diagnosed from the surface buoyancy fluxes over the North Atlantic Ocean and is performing successfully under quasi-equilibrium freshwater forcing, freshwater pulse forcing, climate change scenarios, and for different climate models. An analysis consisting of 25 different climate models shows that the AMOC could begin to collapse by 2063 (from 2026 to 2095, to percentiles) under an intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), or by 2055 (from 2023 to 2076, to percentiles) under a high-end emission scenar
05 août 2025
There is rising concern that several parts of the Earth system may abruptly transition to alternative stable states in response to anthropogenic climate and land-use change. Key candidates of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the South American monsoon system and the Amazon rainforest. Owing to the complex dynamics and feedbacks between them via oceanic and atmospheric coupling, the levels of anthropogenic forcing at which transitions to alternative states can be expected remain uncertain. Here we demonstrate how such interactions can generate spurious signals and potentially mask genuine signs of destabilization. We further review and present observation-based evidence that the stability of these four tipping elements has declined in recent decades, suggesting that they have moved towards their critical thresholds, which may be crossed within the range of unmitigated anthropogenic warming. Our results call for better monitoring of these ti
29 juillet 2025
Les vagues de chaleur marine pourraient avoir conduit les océans de la planète à un point de basculement critique. Les scientifiques craignent que le réchauffement prolongé des océans ne devienne la "nouvelle normalité".
29 juin 2025
EN
‘This is a fight for life’: climate expert on tipping points, doomerism and using wealth as a shield
- Jonathan Watts,Genevieve Guenther,Economic assumptions about risks of the climate crisis are no longer relevant, says the communications expert Genevieve Guenther
28 juin 2025
The world has been too optimistic about the risk to humanity and planet – but devastation can still be avoided, says Timothy Lenton
27 juin 2025
Despite working on polar science for the British Antarctic Survey for 20 years, Louise Sime finds the magnitude of potential sea-level rise hard to comprehend
24 juin 2025
Stefan Rahmstorf, Professor of Physics os the Ocean at the University of Potsdam since 2000, presents a colloquium on the risks associated with the destabilization of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its potential consequences for the global climate.
11 juin 2025
Recent simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) indicate that a tipping event of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would cause Europe to cool by several degrees. This AMOC tipping event was found under constant pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing, while global warming likely limits this AMOC-induced cooling response. Here, we quantify the European temperature responses under different AMOC regimes and climate change scenarios. A strongly reduced AMOC state and intermediate global warming (C, Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) has a profound cooling effect on Northwestern Europe with more intense cold extremes. The largest temperature responses are found during the winter months and these responses are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic sea-ice extent. Enhanced North Atlantic storm track activity under an AMOC collapse results in substantially larger day-to-day temperature fluctuations. We conclude that the (far) future European temperatures are dependent o
28 avril 2025
The planet is edging close to irreversible change, according to the most comprehensive probability analysis yet of climate “tipping points.”
23 avril 2025
We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and how they are altered by including the additional carbon emissions that could arise from tipping points within the Earth's carbon cycle. The crossing of a climate tipping point at a threshold level of global mean surface temperature (threshold temperature) would commit the affected subsystem of the Earth to abrupt and largely irreversible changes with negative impacts on human well-being. However, it remains unclear which tipping points would be triggered under the different SSPs due to uncertainties in the climate sensitivity to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the threshold temperatures and timescales of climate tipping points, and the response of tipping points within the Earth's carbon cycle to global warming. We include those uncertainties in our analysis to derive probabilities of triggering for 16 previously identified climate tipping points within the Earth system.
15 avril 2025
Tipping elements within the Earth system are increasingly well understood. Scientists have identified more than 25 parts of the Earth’s climate system that are likely to have “tipping points” – thresholds where a small additional change in global warming will cause them to irreversibly shift into a new state. The “tipping” of these systems – which include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the Greenland ice sheet – would have profound consequences for both the biosphere and people. More recent research suggests that triggering one tipping element could cause subsequent changes in other tipping elements, potentially leading to a “tipping cascade”. For example, a collapsed AMOC could lead to dieback of the Amazon rainforest and hasten the melt of the Greenland ice sheet.
12 mars 2025
Lenton, the founding director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, was the lead author of the 2008 paper that formally introduced the idea of tipping points in the Earth’s climate system.
30 janvier 2025
Global risk management for human prosperity
24 janvier 2025
Thousands of Greenland's crystal-clear blue lakes have turned a murky brown thanks to global warming — and the worst part is that they've started emitting carbon dioxide. Record heat and rain in 2022 pushed the lakes of West Greenland past a tipping point, so rather than absorbing carbon dioxide (CO₂), they began to emit it into the atmosphere, according to a new study.
29 décembre 2024
The year 2024 wasn’t just another chapter in the unfolding climate saga; it felt like the plot twist no one wanted to believe. For decades, climate scientists warned of ifs — if we pass this tipping…
10 décembre 2024
De metafoor van het 'tipping point' of 'kantelpunt' is contraproductief in de context van de klimaatopwarming, argumenteert een groep wetenschappers in het vakblad Nature. Het concept kan mensen in verwarring brengen en actie in de weg staan, denken de onderzoekers.
01 décembre 2024
Franchir les points de bascule écologiques aurait un coût économique gigantesque, selon plusieurs études scientifiques récentes. Des données qui rappellent l’urgence d’atténuer la crise écologique avant d’être face à des conséquences irréversibles en cascade.
23 octobre 2024
Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why Amoc breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life
15 août 2024
We're nearly halfway through the 2020s, dubbed the most decisive decade for action on climate change. Where exactly do things stand? Climate impact scholar Johan Rockström offers the most up-to-date scientific assessment of the state of the planet and explains what must be done to preserve Earth's resilience to human pressure.
01 août 2024
Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements.
26 juillet 2024
Nous voici arrivés à la moitié de la décennie 2020, celle qui est censée être décisive pour l'action contre le changement climatique. Mais où en sommes-nous exactement ? Johan Rockström est un universitaire spécialisé dans l'impact climatique. Il nous présente l'évaluation scientifique la plus récente sur l'état de notre planète et explique ce que nous devons faire pour préserver la résilience de la Terre face à la pression humaine.
25 juin 2024
Small increase in temperature of intruding water could lead to very big increase in loss of ice, scientists say
11 juin 2024
For many of us the climate crisis mainly calls to mind rising global temperatures, but the crisis goes far beyond this – we are at risk of pushing our planet across climate ‘tipping points,’ critical thresholds where small changes can lead to abrupt and irreversible shifts in the Earth’s climate system. One major element in climate tipping is a huge system of ocean currents, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is responsible for Europe's relatively mild climate. Past climate patterns show that these currents can switch abruptly between today’s vigorous flow and a much weaker flow state. A future shutdown would have potentially devastating consequences in Europe and around the world.
25 mars 2024
An international team of scientists has warned against relying on nature providing straightforward 'early warning' indicators of a climate disaster, as new mathematical modeling shows new fascinating aspects of the complexity of the dynamics of climate. It suggests that the climate system could be more unpredictable than previously thought.
09 février 2024
RealClimate: A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: "Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course." The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals for approaching an AMOC tipping point (we discussed it here),
Scientists now have a better understanding of the risks ahead and a new early warning signal to watch for.
Collapse in system of currents that helps regulate global climate would be at such speed that adaptation would be impossible
07 décembre 2023
Cruciale kantelpunten in het klimaatsysteem van de aarde komen in sneltempo dichterbij. Dat blijkt uit het grootste onderzoek ooit naar “tipping points”. Meer dan tweehonderd wetenschappers werkten mee aan een tekst met waarschuwingen en aanbevelingen, die is gepresenteerd op de klimaattop in Dubai (COP28).
06 décembre 2023
Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass displacement and financial ruin as planet warms
20 septembre 2023
Take part in the new scientific discussion about looming abrupt changes in the Earth system. This new webinar series invites scientists interested in tipping elements and the broader public to attend.
27 juin 2023
Extreme milieufenomenen zoals bosbranden en droogtes zetten ecosystemen zodanig onder druk dat ze steeds moeilijker terug evenwicht vinden. Dat leidt dan tot een zogeheten tipping point voor ecologisch verval. En die kantelpunten komen steeds sneller, zegt een nieuwe studie in Nature.
22 juin 2023
Amazon rainforest and other ecosystems could collapse ‘very soon’, researchers warn
06 mars 2023
Vast releases of gas, along with future ‘methane bombs’, represent huge threat – but curbing emissions would rapidly reduce global heating
By replacing thousands of equations with just one, ecology modelers can more accurately assess how close fragile environments are to a disastrous “tipping point.”
02 février 2023
The Global Tipping Points Report was launched at COP28 on 6 December 2023. The report is an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society. Global Tipping Points is led by Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute with the support of more than 200 researchers from over 90 organisations in 26 countries.
20 janvier 2023
Three “super-tipping points” for climate action could trigger a cascade of decarbonisation across the global economy, according to a report. Relatively small policy interventions on electric cars, plant-based alternatives to meat and green fertilisers would lead to unstoppable growth in those sectors, the experts said. But the boost this would give to battery and hydrogen production would mean crucial knock-on benefits for other sectors including energy storage and aviation.
21 octobre 2022
Le rythme actuel de réchauffement pourrait déclencher plusieurs « points de bascule » planétaires : des changements abrupts et irréversibles du système climatique. Les chercheurs Aurélien Boutaud et Natacha Gondran nous expliquent pourquoi.
06 octobre 2022
A recent paper suggested damaging climate tipping points could be closer than first thought.
13 septembre 2022
Governments and businesses failing to change fast enough, says United in Science report, as weather gets increasingly extreme. Despite intensifying warnings in recent years, governments and businesses have not been changing fast enough, according to the United in Science report published on Tuesday. The consequences are already being seen in increasingly extreme weather around the world, and we are in danger of provoking “tipping points” in the climate system that will mean more rapid and in some cases irreversible shifts.
08 septembre 2022
Giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost regions may already have passed point of irreversible change
07 août 2022
As Nobel laureate Solow said to Congress when criticizingeconomicmodelsforfailingtoanticipatethe“GreatReces-sion,” “Every proposition has to pass a smell test: Does itreally make sense?” (2). The methods and conclusions inDietzetal.(1)donotmakesense. ...
27 juin 2022
Anthropogenic activities are increasingly affecting ecosystems across the globe. Meanwhile, empirical and theoretical evidence suggest that natural systems can exhibit abrupt collapses in response to incremental increases in the stressors, sometimes with dramatic ecological and economic consequences. These catastrophic shifts are faster and larger than expected from the changes in the stressors and happen once a tipping point is crossed.
25 mai 2022
Climate tipping points in the Antarctica, the Arctic and the Amazon are at risk of being reached before or at the current level of global warming of 1.2 degrees Celsius, requiring a “major rethink” of global climate goals and the action necessary to achieve them, according to a recent report.
08 mars 2022
More than three-quarters of the world's largest rainforest has become less resilient to drought since the early 2000s, with areas near humans and with lower rainfall being the worst hit
18 novembre 2021
Emerging ice-sheet modeling suggests once initiated, retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) can continue for centuries. Unfortunately, the short observational record cannot resolve the tipping points, rate of change, and timescale of responses. Iceberg-rafted debris data from Iceberg Alley identify eight retreat phases after the Last Glacial Maximum that each destabilized the AIS within a decade, contributing to global sea-level rise for centuries to a millennium, which subsequently re-stabilized equally rapidly.
10 novembre 2021
Five times in the last 500m years, more than three-fourths of marine animal species perished in mass extinctions. Each of these events is associated with a major disruption of Earth’s carbon cycle. How such catastrophes occur remains mysterious. But recent research increasingly points to the possibility that the Earth system – that is, life and the environment – may experience a cascade of disruptions when stressed beyond a tipping point.
09 septembre 2021
If there’s one thing we know about climate breakdown, it’s that it will not be linear, smooth or gradual. Just as one continental plate might push beneath another in sudden fits and starts, causing periodic earthquakes and tsunamis, our atmospheric systems will absorb the stress for a while, then suddenly shift. Yet, everywhere, the programmes designed to avert it are linear, smooth and gradual.
02 septembre 2021
Scientists have uncovered a fascinating new insight into what caused one of the most rapid and dramatic instances of climate change in the history of the Earth.
14 août 2021
Depuis 30 ans, la compréhension du climat terrestre dans sa globalité s’est donc terriblement améliorée, permettant le développement de nouveaux concepts. L’un d’entre eux suscite beaucoup d’intérêt auprès de la communauté scientifique : c’est celui des points de basculement (tipping point).
11 août 2021
Clarity on Climate Tipping Points and Feedbacks
07 août 2021
On les appelle les "tipping points" ; les points de rupture. A partir d'eux, le climat change de manière radicale et irréversible. Des événements considérés comme des points de rupture sont la fonte des glace rapide au Groenland, qui fait monter le niveau des eaux, le fait que la forêt amazonienne rejette plus de CO2 qu'elle n'en absorbe, et les canicules en Sibérie qui ont fait fondre le sol gelé (pergélisol), ce qui a fait relâcher d'énormes quantités de méthane dans l'air. Un effondrement du Gulf Stream serait également un point de rupture absolument catastrophique.
05 août 2021
Climate scientists have detected warning signs of the collapse of the Gulf Stream, one of the planet’s main potential tipping points. The research found “an almost complete loss of stability over the last century” of the currents that researchers call the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The currents are already at their slowest point in at least 1,600 years, but the new analysis shows they may be nearing a shutdown.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain.
31 juillet 2021
Abrupt disruptions to Earth's climate thousands of years ago that caused extreme sea-level rise and mass ice cap melting can serve as an early warning system for today's planetary tipping points, according to new research.
28 juillet 2021
Around 13,000 researchers have called for urgent action to slow down the climate emergency as extreme weather patterns shock the world. They listed three core measures.
23 juillet 2021
This is Why it Feels Like We Might Not Have a Future Anymore. The truth is that we’re probably way past the point of no return. Every thoughtful mind can see the writing on the wall. Experts, like me, can weight in with facts. Ecologists will tell you that mass annihilation is going to rip us apart, too. Climate scientists will tell you it hasn’t been this hot for millions of years, and every year, the temperature goes up by the equivalent in bio-geological time, of a few million years.
16 juillet 2021
It’s Beginning to Feel Like We’ve Finally Pushed the Planet Past its Final Tipping Point. We have “extreme events” the kind scientists have long feared. But they’ve even shocked scientists with how suddenly extreme and frequent they are. And “This is not a localised freak event, it is definitely part of a coherent global pattern.”
23 juin 2021
Climate scientists are increasingly concerned that global heating will trigger tipping points in Earth’s natural systems, which will lead to widespread and possibly irrevocable disaster, unless action is taken urgently. The impacts are likely to be much closer than most people realise, a a draft report from the world’s leading climate scientists suggests, and will fundamentally reshape life in the coming decades even if greenhouse gas emissions are brought under some control.
12 juin 2021
Un large ensemble de simulations réalisées à l’aide d’un modèle novateur permet de mieux quantifier le risque d’effet domino ou cascade climatique – une forme de réaction en chaine – pour différents niveaux de réchauffement global. Les résultats révèlent la dimension interconnectée des éléments pouvant bifurquer, tels l’inlandsis groenlandais, et l’importance de les étudier via une approche intégrée. L’étude paraît ce mois-ci dans la revue scientifique Earth System Dynamics.
03 juin 2021
Analysis shows significant risk of cascading events even at 2C of heating, with severe long-term effects. The new research examined the interactions between ice sheets in West Antarctica, Greenland, the warm Atlantic Gulf Stream and the Amazon rainforest. The scientists carried out 3m computer simulations and found domino effects in a third of them, even when temperature rises were below 2C, the upper limit of the Paris agreement.
17 mai 2021
Scientists say ice equivalent to 1-2 metres of sea level rise is probably already doomed to melt
07 mai 2021
A range of studies have long indicated that attention should be paid to the effects of climate change on subsystems such as the Amazon, Greenland ice or permafrost. These effects have been debated for more than 20 years. Since then, thousands of pages have been written describing their interrelationships, warning of a coming disaster. As in this article published in Nature by key figures in climate science, or this article published in National Geographic. However, despite the seriousness of the issue, mainstream media silence remains thunderous. With Ferran Puig Vilar
22 avril 2021
Sea ice land. 7 Tipping points are analysed here. Climate tipping points, elements of the Earth system in which small changes in global temperature can kick off reinforcing loops that ‘tip’ a system into a profoundly different state, accelerating heat waves, permafrost thaw, and coastal flooding — and, in some cases, fueling more warming.
09 avril 2020
The growing threat of abrupt and irreversible climate changes must compel political and economic action on emissions.
10 février 2020
The persistent march of a warming climate is seen across a multitude of continuous, incremental changes. CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Ocean heat content. Global sea level rise. Each creeps up year after year, fuelled by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
25 février 2019
If atmospheric CO2 levels exceed 1,200 parts per million (ppm), it could push the Earth’s climate over a “tipping point”, finds a new study. This would see clouds that shade large part of the oceans start to break up.
09 octobre 2018
The IPCC report sets out the world’s current knowledge of the impacts of 1.5C of warming and clearly shows the dangers of breaching such a limit. However, many scientists are increasingly worried about factors about which we know much less. These “known unknowns” of climate change are tipping points, or feedback mechanisms within the climate system – thresholds that, if passed, could send the Earth into a spiral of runaway climate change.