Intempéries

CEOBS was launched in 2018 with the primary goal of increasing awareness and understanding of the environmental and derived humanitarian consequences of conflicts and military activities. In this, we seek to challenge the idea of the environment as a ‘silent victim of armed conflict’. Download our ‘About us‘ summary.

This Contemplation is the result of my beginning to put together a different one that’s focussing upon an academic article I’ve been reading (Collapse, Environment, and Society) but that got me thinking about the academic ‘debate’ regarding what ‘societal collapse’ is, how it may–or may not–unfold for our current experiment in large, complex societies, and how things are perceived in the moment by those experiencing societal change. The ‘debate’ (centred more-or-less on the question: Do societies actually ‘collapse’ or are they ‘merely’ shifting/transforming/adapting to changing conditions?) is rather ‘academic’ in that in the grand scheme of things it’s intellectually interesting but doesn’t have much to do with the on-the-ground, real-life experiences and concerns of most humans in a society–especially if they are experiencing some of the more ‘problematic’ consequences of collapse/transformation.

The world's largest polluters are also the safest from the environmental damage they help create—while the countries least to blame face the greatest threats, including the increased possibility of violent conflict.

Anti-environmentalism is gaining ground. Attacks on the net zero goal and hostility to conservation measures and anti-pollution targets are becoming more common. And, as recent election results have shown, these tactics are reshaping politics in Britain and across the west.

Microplastics have been found for the first time in human ovary follicular fluid, raising a new round of questions about the ubiquitous and toxic substances’ potential impact on women’s fertility. The new peer-reviewed research published in Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety checked for microplastics in the follicular fluid of 18 women undergoing assisted reproductive treatment at a fertility clinic in Salerno, Italy, and detected them in 14.

While NGOs and Members of the European Parliament are calling for a ban on so-called "forever chemicals" in pesticides, only a few kilometres from Brussels, in Flanders, contamination is in full swing, even affecting organic farmers. PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) are chemicals used mainly for their water-repellent properties. Recent studies suggest that pesticide products may contain PFAS and that some active ingredients may meet the definition of a PFAS. This group of chemicals is a known threat to human health. Once in the environment, they are extremely persistent, earning them the nickname "forever chemicals".

Countries must move rapidly to slash CO2 emissions from homes, offices, shops and other buildings—a sector that accounts for a third of global greenhouse gas pollution, the United Nations said Monday. Carbon dioxide emissions from the building sector rose around 5% in the last decade when they should have fallen 28%, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).

Donald Trump’s administration is to reconsider the official finding that greenhouse gases are harmful to public health, a move that threatens to rip apart the foundation of the US’s climate laws, amid a stunning barrage of actions to weaken or repeal a host of pollution limits upon power plants, cars and waterways.

As fossil fuel interests attack climate accountability litigation, environmental advocates have sounded a new warning that they are pursuing a path that would destroy all future prospects for such cases. Nearly 200 advocacy groups have urged Democratic representatives to “proactively and affirmatively” reject potential industry attempts to obtain immunity from litigation.

A rule known as the endangerment finding requires the E.P.A. to regulate greenhouse gases. It has proved resilient against earlier attacks.

Previous health impact assessments of temperature-related mortality in Europe indicated that the mortality burden attributable to cold is much larger than for heat. Questions remain as to whether climate change can result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality. In this study, we estimated how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European urban areas, under several climate, demographic and adaptation scenarios. We showed that, with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe. Under the lowest mitigation and adaptation scenario (SSP3-7.0), we estimate a net death burden due to climate change increasing by 49.9% and cumulating 2,345,410 (95% confidence interval = 327,603 to 4,775,853) climate change-related deaths between 2015 and 2099. This net effect would remain positive even under high adaptation scenarios, whereby a risk attenuation of 50%

The only publication for climate action, covering the environment, biodiversity, net zero, renewable energy and regenerative approaches. It’s time for The New Climate.

Emerging infectious diseases, biodiversity loss, and anthropogenic environmental change are interconnected crises with massive social and ecological costs. In this Review, we discuss how pathogens and parasites are responding to global change, and the implications for pandemic prevention and biodiversity conservation. Ecological and evolutionary principles help to explain why both pandemics and wildlife die-offs are becoming more common; why land-use change and biodiversity loss are often followed by an increase in zoonotic and vector-borne diseases; and why some species, such as bats, host so many emerging pathogens. To prevent the next pandemic, scientists should focus on monitoring and limiting the spread of a handful of high-risk viruses, especially at key interfaces such as farms and live-animal markets. But to address the much broader set of infectious disease risks associated with the Anthropocene, decision-makers will need to develop comprehensive strategies that include pathogen surveillance across s

British police arrest environmental protesters at nearly three times the global average rate, research has found, revealing the country as a world leader in the legal crackdown on climate activism.

Hastened reviews of compounds as industry ramps up could increase pollution from likely toxic chemicals. The Environmental Protection Agency is quietly fast tracking approval of new PFAS “forever chemicals” for use by the semiconductor industry at the same time the agency is publicly touting increased scrutiny of new PFAS and other chemicals.

Microplastics are ubiquitous environmental contaminants for which there are documented human exposures, but there is a paucity of research evaluating their impacts on human health. We conducted a rapid systematic review using the “Navigation Guide” systematic review method. We searched four databases in July 2022 and April 2024 with no restriction on the date.

In this article, we’ll see why cascading disruptions of environmental and political systems are entangled and mutually reinforcing. We’ll also try to identify the next stages of global collapse, and explore the options for individuals and communities seeking to survive and to prevent as much harm and suffering as possible.

A short definition of the polycrisis, including global environmental, geopolitical, and economic aspects.

Trump could reverse the nation’s progress on climate change, but rolling back the Biden administration’s significant climate successes could be a low, slow and difficult process...

As climate impacts intensify globally, the Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please! finds that nations must deliver dramatically stronger ambition and action in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions or the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal will be gone within a few years. The report is the 15th edition in a series that brings together many of the world’s top climate scientists to look at future trends in greenhouse gas emissions and provide potential solutions to the challenge of global warming.

The EU is being sued for failing to set ambitious climate targets in sectors that contribute more than half of the bloc’s total greenhouse gas emissions.

De grootste cruiseschepen zijn vandaag dubbel zo groot als in 2000, zegt mobiliteitsorganisatie Transport & Environment (T&E) in een nieuw rapport. “Als ze aan dit tempo blijven groeien, kunnen de grootste cruiseschepen in 2050 bijna acht keer zo groot zijn als de Titanic.” Dat gaat gepaard met een aanzienlijke milieukost.

Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements.

Unesco joint research dating back 15 years found violence and intimidation against about 750 reporters and 44 murders

Weak government climate policies violate fundamental human rights, the European court of human rights has ruled

Dr Sarah Benn has long been concerned about the climate crisis, diligently recycling until she was “blue in the face”. But the rise of the climate activist group Extinction Rebellion in 2019 inspired her and her husband to go further. “We thought: well, if we don’t do it then who else is going to?”

Le débat sur les nouveaux OGM est biaisé par les lobbies qui défendent toute une série d’intérêts économiques. A la faveur de sa présidence européenne, la Belgique doit se positionner dans ce dossier en facilitant l’élaboration d’une politique européenne qui donne la priorité à l’équité, à l’autonomie des agriculteur.e.s, à la santé publique et à l’environnement.

Anthropogenic emissions drive global-scale warming yet the temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels is uncertain. Using 300 years of ocean mixed-layer temperature records preserved in sclerosponge carbonate skeletons, we demonstrate that industrial-era warming began in the mid-1860s, more than 80 years earlier than instrumental sea surface temperature records. The Sr/Ca palaeothermometer was calibrated against ‘modern’ (post-1963) highly correlated (R2 = 0.91) instrumental records of global sea surface temperatures, with the pre-industrial defined by nearly constant (<±0.1 °C) temperatures from 1700 to the early 1860s. Increasing ocean and land-air temperatures overlap until the late twentieth century, when the land began warming at nearly twice the rate of the surface oceans. Hotter land temperatures, together with the earlier onset of industrial-era warming, indicate that global warming was already 1.7 ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2020. Our result is 0.5 °C higher than IPCC estim

Last year I was fortunate enough to be joined by four remarkable women in the British environmental movement. We were speaking at a Deep Adaptation conference in Glastonbury. The way the discussion…

Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass displacement and financial ruin as planet warms

Daily atmospheric carbon dioxide data from Hawaiian volcano more than double last decade’s annual average

Finance needs of developing countries now 10-18 times as big as international public finance flows Growing gap results from rising adaptation needs and faltering adaptation finance Failure to enhance adaptation has huge implications for losses and damages

UK has led the way, with countries across the continent making mass arrests, passing draconian new laws and labelling activists as eco-terrorists

Human activity has caused species groups to go extinct 35 times faster than they have over the past 500 years

Colombia was the deadliest country and a fifth of the 177 recorded killings took place in the Amazon rainforest, says Global Witness

Link to climate activism is seven times stronger for anger than it is for hope, say Norwegian researchers

A 1972 MIT study predicted that rapid economic growth would lead to societal collapse in the mid 21st century. A new paper shows we’re unfortunately right on schedule.

Permafrost and glaciers in the high Arctic form an impermeable ‘cryospheric cap’ that traps a large reservoir of subsurface methane, preventing it from reaching the atmosphere. Cryospheric vulnerability to climate warming is making releases of this methane possible. On Svalbard, where air temperatures are rising more than two times faster than the average for the Arctic, glaciers are retreating and leaving behind exposed forefields that enable rapid methane escape. Here we document how methane-rich groundwater springs have formed in recently revealed forefields of 78 land-terminating glaciers across central Svalbard, bringing deep-seated methane gas to the surface. Waters collected from these springs during February–May of 2021 and 2022 are supersaturated with methane up to 600,000 times greater than atmospheric equilibration. Spatial sampling reveals a geological dependency on the extent of methane supersaturation, with isotopic evidence of a thermogenic source. We estimate annual methane emissions from prog

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and acc

Emmanuel Macron’s government is at least doing the bare minimum to avert the planetary crisis – and putting the UK to shame, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot

World Bank says subsidies costing as much as $23m a minute must be repurposed to fight climate crisis...

Hoe kunnen we, in het licht van toenemende droogte, overstromingen en de snelle bevolkingsgroei de toegang tot voldoende zuiver water garanderen? Wetenschappers Jim Saiers en Shimi Anisfeld denken na over de toekomst van ons water en geven oplossingen op korte en lange termijn.

Hoe kunnen we, in het licht van toenemende droogte, overstromingen en de snelle bevolkingsgroei de toegang tot voldoende zuiver water garanderen? Want ook vanuit de landbouw, de industrie en de energiesector is de vraag naar water groeiend. Professor Hydrologie Jim Saiers en hoofddocent en onderzoekswetenschapper Water en Milieuchemie Shimi Anisfeld van de Yale School of the Environment denken na over de toekomst van ons water en geven oplossingen op korte en lange termijn.

Going beyond climate disruption, the report by the Earth Commission group of scientists presents disturbing evidence that our planet faces growing crises of water availability, nutrient loading, ecosystem maintenance and aerosol pollution. These pose threats to the stability of life-support systems and worsen social equality.

Flash drought, characterized by unusually rapid drying, can have substantial impact on many socioeconomic sectors, particularly agriculture. However, potential changes to flash drought risk in a warming climate remain unknown. In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model simulations. We find that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel usage. Flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America (change in annual risk from 32% in 2015 to 49% in 2100) and Europe (32% to 53%) in the most extreme emissions scenario. Following low-end and medium scenarios compared to high-end scenarios indicates a notable reduction in annual flash drought risk over cropland. Flash droughts are projected to become more frequent unde

This report examines the economic and business models needed to address the impacts of the plastics economy.

The total concentration of greenhouse gases and other forcing agents, including cooling aerosols, reached 465 parts per million CO2 equivalents in 2020. This is around the peak level that the International Panel on Climate Change states 'should not be exceeded if — with a 67% likelihood and not allowing a temperature overshoot — the global temperature increase is to be limited to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels'. When allowing for a temperature overshoot, the peak level could be exceeded in 2024. The peak concentrations corresponding to a temperature increase of 2oC by 2100 could be exceeded between 2027 and 2030.

Tiny plastic particles can travel worldwide, ending up in urban, rural, and remote areas. They take an even faster transport pathway than oceanic currents: the atmosphere.

Protecting and enhancing populations of key wildlife species across the world could significantly enhance natural carbon capture and storage and play a critical role mitigating climate change, according to new YSE-led research.

Global CO2 emissions for 2022 increased by 1.5% relative to 2021 (+7.9% and +2.0% relative to 2020 and 2019, respectively), reaching 36.1 GtCO2. These 2022 emissions consumed 13%–36% of the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5 °C, suggesting permissible emissions could be depleted within 2–7 years (67% likelihood).

Major mapping project reveals PFAS have been found at high levels at thousands of sites across Europe. EURACTIV's media partner, The Guardian, reports. Pollutants known as “forever chemicals”, which don’t break down in the environment, build up in the body and may be toxic, have been found at high levels at thousands of sites across the UK and Europe, a major mapping project has revealed.

Beware of these three false solutions to climate change: carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS), hydrogen and offsets.

Humanity is now a ‘geological superpower’ and declaring a new epoch is critical to tackling its impact, scientists say

Overall, however, the climate crisis is bleaker than it has ever been. In October, a slew of reports laid bare how close the planet had neared to irreversible climate breakdown, with one UN study stating there was “no credible pathway in place to 1.5C”, the internationally agreed limit for global heating, and that progress on cutting carbon emissions was “woefully inadequate”.

Climate change is landing blow after blow upon humanity and the planet, an onslaught that will only intensify in the coming years even if the world begins to bring down greenhouse gas emissions. UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report 2022: Too Little, Too Slow – Climate adaptation failure puts world at risk finds that the world must urgently increase efforts to adapt to these impacts of climate change.

A large majority of the UK public supports nonviolent direct action to protect the environment, according to an opinion poll. People also strongly backed solar power on farmland and opposed fracking. The poll indicates the unpopularity of a recent swathe of government policies, with more than twice as many people saying they trusted Labour to protect the environment as said they trusted the Conservatives.

Campaigners say protesters arrested for blocking roads getting ‘lost in prison system’ while on remand. Speaking from inside the jail, he said: “The only good thing about my situation is that it seems to give an extra platform for my views. I spend most afternoons writing speeches and they have been read out all over the world – Italy, Sweden, Canada.”

A beauty company has appointed a director to represent nature on its board, giving the natural world a legal say in its business strategy. Faith In Nature, which sells soap and haircare products, as well as household cleaners and shampoo for dogs, says it is the first company in the world to give nature a formal vote on corporate decisions that might affect it

As Nobel laureate Solow said to Congress when criticizingeconomicmodelsforfailingtoanticipatethe“GreatReces-sion,” “Every proposition has to pass a smell test: Does itreally make sense?” (2). The methods and conclusions inDietzetal.(1)donotmakesense. ...

Thames Head is now more than 2 miles downstream as forecasters warn of further high temperatures to come

Cancer affects the lives of many Europeans. Environmental and occupational exposure to air pollution, radon, UV radiation, chemical carcinogens, asbestos and other risks contributes significantly to the high burden of cancer in Europe. However, all environmental and occupational cancer risk factors are largely preventable. This web report provides a brief overview of the evidence on the environmental and occupational determinants of cancer in Europe and of EU policy responses.

An investor’s rant gives an insight into the City’s short-termist view of the environment crisis

Human activity is putting the Earth on a trajectory towards environmental collapse. The SDGs were adopted in2015 to reconcile human activity with planetary boundaries. So far, the SDGs have not lived up to their promise in European Union member states. Most EU countries have seen socioeconomic development alongside environmental degradation. Progress towards environmental sustainability only occurs in countries with slow or negative socioeconomic trends.

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The world’s leading energy economist has warned against investing in large new oil and gas developments, which would have little impact on the current energy crisis and soaring fuel prices but spell devastation to the planet.

A liquified natural gas (LNG) crisis is brewing for European countries dealing with energy insecurity in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as demand will outstrip supply by the end of this year, Rystad Energy research shows. Although soaring demand has spurred the greatest rush of new LNG projects worldwide in more than a decade, construction timelines mean material relief is unlikely only after 2024. Global LNG demand is expected to hit 436 million tonnes in 2022, outpacing the available supply of just 410 million tonnes. A perfect winter storm may be forming for Europe as the continent seeks to limit Russian gas flows. The supply imbalance and high prices will set the scene for the most bullish environment for LNG projects in more than a decade, although supply from these projects will only arrive and provide relief from after 2024 The European Union’s REPowerEU plan has set an ambitious target to reduce dependence on Russian gas by 66% within this year – an aim that will clash with the EU’s goal of

Selon des recherches américaines publiées mercredi dans la revue scientifique Environmental Science & Technology, divers produits pour enfants - des vêtements aux housses de meubles et aux taies d'oreiller - contiennent des substances per- et polyfluoroalkylées (PFAS).

Rapid decarbonization of energy is non-negotiable if we are to avert catastrophic global heating, says the latest UN climate report.

Researchers from the Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and their collaborators published a high-accuracy and high-resolution permafrost map over the Northern Hemisphere.

L’ONG Transport & Environment dénonce le recours aux biocarburants à base d’huiles végétales ou de céréales en Europe compte tenu de la menace qui pèse sur la sécurité alimentaire mondiale depuis le début de la guerre en Ukraine.

Réduire les taxes sur les carburants pour soutenir les conducteurs face à l’envolée des prix causée par la guerre en Ukraine ? Cette mesure profite surtout aux plus riches, alerte une étude de l’ONG Transport & Environment publiée mardi 22 mars.

Following record-level declines in 2020, near-real-time data indicate that global CO2 emissions rebounded by 4.8% in 2021, reaching 34.9 GtCO2. These 2021 emissions consumed 8.7% of the remaining carbon budget for limiting anthropogenic warming to 1.5 °C, which if current trajectories continue, might be used up in 9.5 years at 67% likelihood.

Researchers have been able to cut their carbon footprint by jetting off to fewer international conferences, but physicists working on large-scale experiments may also have to consider the significant environmental impact of the computer power they require. Michael Allen investigates

Only rarely does a book truly change the world. In the nineteenth century, such a book was Charles Darwin’s On the Origin of Species. For the twentieth century, it was The Limits to Growth. Not only did this best-selling 1972 publication help spur the environmental movement, but it showed that the underlying dynamics of the modern industrial world are unsustainable on the timescale of a couple of human lifetimes. This was profoundly important information, and it was delivered credibly and clearly, so that every policy maker could understand it.

The Belgian Institute for Sustainable IT is a think and do tank founded in 2020, based on its French equivalent the INR. Our aim is to bring together Belgian companies, organizations and individuals, and help them succeed their digital transition while reducing the environmental and social footprint of their IT services and usages. Thanks to the support of our members and of public authorities, we promote digital technologies and services that are more sustainable, inclusive and ethical.

Le port d'Anvers est le deuxième plus polluant d'Europe après celui de Rotterdam, écrit jeudi De Morgen sur base d'une nouvelle recherche menée par l'ONG Transport & Environment.

Egypt’s Minister of Environment Yasmine Fouad and Minister of Agriculture and Land Reclamation El-Sayed El-Kosayer met on Sunday to discuss preparations for the Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP 27), which Egypt will be hosting in Sharm El-Sheikh this year.

Wealthy companies are using the facade of ‘nature-based solutions’ to enact a great carbon land grab

De nouveaux travaux ont retracé l’entièreté du cycle de vie de l’iceberg A-68, l’un des plus grands jamais observés et dont les pérégrinations se sont déroulées de juillet 2017 à avril 2021. Les résultats ont récemment été publiés dans la revue scientifique Remote Sensing of Environment.

We submit that the safe operating space of the planetary boundary of novel entities is exceeded since annual production and releases are increasing at a pace that outstrips the global capacity for assessment and monitoring. The novel entities boundary in the planetary boundaries framework refers to entities that are novel in a geological sense and that could have large-scale impacts that threaten the integrity of Earth system processes. We review the scientific literature relevant to quantifying the boundary for novel entities and highlight plastic pollution as a particular aspect of high concern. An impact pathway from production of novel entities to impacts on Earth system processes is presented.