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2024
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the main driver of northward heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean today, setting global climate patterns. Whether global warming has affected the strength of this overturning circulation over the past century is still debated: observational studies suggest that there has been persistent weakening since the mid-twentieth century, whereas climate models systematically simulate a stable circulation. Here, using Earth system and eddy-permitting coupled ocean–sea-ice models, we show that a freshening of the subarctic Atlantic Ocean and weakening of the overturning circulation increase the temperature and salinity of the South Atlantic on a decadal timescale through the propagation of Kelvin and Rossby waves. We also show that accounting for upper-end meltwater input in historical simulations significantly improves the data–model agreement on past changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, yielding a slowdown of 0.46 sverdrups per decade since 1950
The idea that the AMOC is headed to collapse is very controversial, but it is clearly weakening. If the circulation did collapse, the consequences on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean would be immense—including large changes in temperature and a spike in weather-related disasters.
The Atlantic Ocean's most vital ocean current is showing troubling signs of reaching a disastrous tipping point. Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf tells Live Science what the impacts could be.
The network of Atlantic ocean currents keeping the Earth's climate stable are far closer to collapse than first estimated, scientists warn.
AMOC collapse would bring severe global climate repercussions, with Europe bearing the brunt of the consequences.
Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why Amoc breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life
Several studies in recent years have suggested the crucial system — the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC — could be on course for collapse, weakened by warmer ocean temperatures and disrupted saltiness caused by human-induced climate change. But the new research, which is being peer-reviewed and hasn’t yet been published in a journal, uses a state-of-the-art model to estimate when it could collapse, suggesting a shutdown could happen between 2037 and 2064.
There is increasing concern that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may collapse this century with a disrupting societal impact on large parts of the world. Preliminary estimates of the probability of such an AMOC collapse have so far been based on conceptual models and statistical analyses of proxy data. Here, we provide observationally based estimates of such probabilities from reanalysis data. We first identify optimal observation regions of an AMOC collapse from a recent global climate model simulation. Salinity data near the southern boundary of the Atlantic turn out to be optimal to provide estimates of the time of the AMOC collapse in this model. Based on the reanalysis products, we next determine probability density functions of the AMOC collapse time. The collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be 59±17%.
A new study suggests that the Gulf Stream was stronger during the last ice age due to more powerful winds, indicating that future changes in wind patterns could weaken the Gulf Stream, affecting European climate and North American sea levels. This research enhances our understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its vulnerability to climate change.
Scientists now have a better understanding of the risks ahead and a new early warning signal to watch for.
