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Les limites planétaires sont les seuils que l’humanité ne devrait pas dépasser pour ne pas compromettre les conditions favorables dans lesquelles elle a pu se développer et pour pouvoir durablement vivre dans un écosystème sûr, c’est-à-dire en évitant les modifications brutales et difficilement prévisibles de l’environnement planétaire.
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Pierre Masselot, London School of Hygiene
Previous health impact assessments of temperature-related mortality in Europe indicated that the mortality burden attributable to cold is much larger than for heat. Questions remain as to whether climate change can result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality. In this study, we estimated how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European urban areas, under several climate, demographic and adaptation scenarios. We showed that, with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe. Under the lowest mitigation and adaptation scenario (SSP3-7.0), we estimate a net death burden due to climate change increasing by 49.9% and cumulating 2,345,410 (95% confidence interval = 327,603 to 4,775,853) climate change-related deaths between 2015 and 2099. This net effect would remain positive even under high adaptation scenarios, whereby a risk attenuation of 50%
