Justice & Paix

Abstract. We review how the international modelling community, encompassing integrated assessment models, global and regional Earth system and climate models, and impact models, has worked together over the past few decades to advance understanding of Earth system change and its impacts on society and the environment and thereby support international climate policy. We go on to recommend a number of priority research areas for the coming decade, a timescale that encompasses a number of newly starting international modelling activities, as well as the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) and the second UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Progress in these priority areas will significantly advance our understanding of Earth system change and its impacts, increasing the quality and utility of science support to climate policy. We emphasize the need for continued improvement in our understanding of, and ability to simulate, the coupled Earth system and the impacts of Earth system change. There is an urgent need to investiga

We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis. For many years, scientists, including a group of more than 15,000, have sounded the alarm about the impending dangers of climate change driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem change (Ripple et al. 2020).

Record emissions, temperatures and population mean more scientists are looking into possibility of societal collapse, report says

Subsurface Temperature Profiles

Het is vandaag Earth Overshoot Day: vanaf vandaag tot het einde van het jaar verbruikt de wereldbevolking meer dan onze planeet op een jaar aan grondstoffen en diensten kan leveren. Voor onze huidige levensstijl zijn eigenlijk 1,7 planeten aarde nodig, en dat kan uitdraaien op een ramp, waarschuwen experts. Earth Overshoot Day valt dit jaar ook een dag vroeger dan vorig jaar.

Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements.

A carbon bomb is any fossil fuel extraction project that will generate more than one gigatonne of carbon dioxide (1GtCO2) over its remaining life.

Le satellite EarthCARE de l'Agence spatiale européenne a pris son envol mardi depuis la base de Vandenberg en Californie, à bord d'une fusée Falcon 9 de SpaceX. Sa mission : explorer en détail les effets des nuages sur le climat, un phénomène encore mal compris.

Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves1,2, raising concerns about the future impacts of climate change and the associated socioeconomic costs3,4. Here we develop a disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological and hybrid input–output and computable general equilibrium global trade models to estimate the midcentury socioeconomic impacts of heat stress. We consider health costs related to heat exposure, the value of heat-induced labour productivity loss and indirect losses due to economic disruptions cascading through supply chains. Here we show that the global annual incremental gross domestic product loss increases exponentially from 0.03 ± 0.01 (SSP 245)–0.05 ± 0.03 (SSP 585) percentage points during 2030–2040 to 0.05 ± 0.01–0.15 ± 0.04 percentage points during 2050–2060. By 2060, the expected global economic losses reach a total of 0.6–4.6% with losses attributed to health loss (37–45%), labour productivity loss (18–37%) and i

Ontdek het 4,5 miljard jaar oude verhaal van de planeet die we onze thuis noemen: de aarde. Vandaag de dag is de aarde een planeet waarop 8 miljard mensen wonen, mensen die een grotere invloed hebben op de vormgeving van ons aardoppervlak dan de meeste natuurlijke processen. Dramatische wendingen in onze geschiedenis hebben gemaakt dat de mens controle heeft gekregen over de natuur. Maar het is noodzakelijk om hieruit ook de nodige lessen te trekken, voor het te laat is. Earth – een vijfdelige miniserie op Canvas Een erg goede reeks over natuurlijke transities in de geschiedenis van de aarde met schitterende beelden maar evenzo sterke wetenschappelijke onderbouwing. Momenteel werden reeds drie van de vijf afleveringen uitgezonden. In zijn geheel te bekijken via vrt max.

A UN meeting this week considered a motion on a suite of technologies known as ‘solar radiation modification’, but no consensus could be reached on the controversial topic.

The planetary boundaries concept presents a set of nine planetary boundaries within which humanity can continue to develop and thrive for generations to come

Juristen van ClientEarth hebben, samen met 14 ngo's, nieuwe juridische stappen ondernomen tegen INEOS, nu de petrochemiereus zijn plannen doorzet om Europa's grootste plasticproject te bouwen. De milieuorganisaties hebben vandaag een rechtszaak aangespannen tegen de Vlaamse overheid. Deze zaak markeert een nieuwe fase in de langdurige juridische strijd van de groep milieuorganisaties tegen 'Project One' van INEOS.

Even recapituleren. Op zondag 7 jan 2024 kreeg Ineos – na een verrassend positief advies van ANB – zijn huidige vergunning van de Vlaamse Regering. De vorige was onderuit gehaald op grond van de beroepsprocedure die de provincie Noord-Brabant had aangespannen. VlaReg werd toen door de Raad voor Vergunningenbetwistingen op de vingers getikt voor haar lossepolswerk aangaande de verwachte stikstofdepositie van Project One voorbij de Nederlandse grens. En al stond het in de sterren geschreven dat zowel de provincie Noord-Brabant als de provincie Zeeland opnieuw beroep zouden aantekenen en dat ook Client Earth opnieuw met een beroep ten gronde zou komen, toch startte Ineos op 8 januari full speed de constructiewerken in Lillo. Evident met de bedoeling om de weg van de voldongen feiten te kiezen en om de beroepsprocedures in snelheid te pakken. Mocht er een kink in de kabel komen, dan was er altijd nog de overheidswaarborg van een half miljard, waarvan overigens al 250 miljoen zijn geactiveerd. Poker à la Ratcliffe

Anthropogenic emissions drive global-scale warming yet the temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels is uncertain. Using 300 years of ocean mixed-layer temperature records preserved in sclerosponge carbonate skeletons, we demonstrate that industrial-era warming began in the mid-1860s, more than 80 years earlier than instrumental sea surface temperature records. The Sr/Ca palaeothermometer was calibrated against ‘modern’ (post-1963) highly correlated (R2 = 0.91) instrumental records of global sea surface temperatures, with the pre-industrial defined by nearly constant (<±0.1 °C) temperatures from 1700 to the early 1860s. Increasing ocean and land-air temperatures overlap until the late twentieth century, when the land began warming at nearly twice the rate of the surface oceans. Hotter land temperatures, together with the earlier onset of industrial-era warming, indicate that global warming was already 1.7 ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2020. Our result is 0.5 °C higher than IPCC estim

Overall losses from natural disasters in 2023: US$ 250bn; more than 74,000 fatalities Insured global losses of US$ 95bn close to five-year average (US$ 105bn) and above the ten-year average (US$ 90bn) Earthquake in Turkey and Syria was the year’s most devastating humanitarian disaster Thunderstorms in North America and Europe more destructive than ever before: overall losses of US$ 76bn; insured losses US$ 58bn 2023 was the hottest year ever, with a large number of regional records broken

An easy way to start a long, heated debate is to mention global population. Thomas Malthus famously ignited furious arguments in the eighteenth century when

Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass displacement and financial ruin as planet warms

Plastic waste in aquatic environments may be severely disrupting the reproductive behavior of marine animals. 

When Rishi Sunak granted 27 new North Sea licences this week, he wasn’t thinking about the survival of the living world, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot

September 2023 smashed the prior global temperature record. Hand-wringing about the magnitude of the temperature jump in September is not inappropriate, but it is more important to investigate the role of aerosol climate forcing – which we chose to leave unmeasured – in global climate change. Global temperature during the current El Nino provides a potential indirect assessment of change of the aerosol forcing. Global temperature in the current El Nino, to date, implies a strong acceleration of global warming for which the most likely explanation is a decrease of human-made aerosols as a result of reductions in China and from ship emissions. The current El Nino will probably be weaker than the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Ninos, making current warming even more significant. The current near-maximum solar irradiance adds a small amount to the major “forcing” mechanisms (GHGs, aerosols, and El Nino), but with no long-term effect. More important, the long dormant Southern Hemisphere polar amplification is probably com

Une fresque globale pour prendre du recul et comprendre ce qui rend notre planète habitable.

Ahead of the UN’s SDG Summit (18-19 September), ground-breaking analyses shows how by enacting five ‘extraordinary turnarounds’ SDGs implementation can be accelerated.

This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.

First complete ‘scientific health check’ shows most global systems beyond stable range in which modern civilisation emerged

La séquestration du CO2 dans les sols agricoles est présentée comme une excellente stratégie pour atténuer le changement climatique. Mais est-ce réellement le cas ? Plusieurs pédologues ont exprimé leurs doutes lors de la Conférence sur les sols de Wageningen le 29 août.

Bonn and Geneva, 6 September 2023 (ECMWF and WMO) - Earth just had its hottest three months on record, according to the European Union-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) implemented by ECMWF. Global sea surface temperatures are at unprecedented highs for the third consecutive month and Antarctic sea ice extent remains at a record low for the time of year.

Morgen, op 2 augustus, zullen alle hulpbronnen al opgebruikt zijn die de planeet in een jaar kan genereren. Als iedereen aan het tempo van de Belgen zou consumeren, zou “Earth Overshoot Day” zelfs al op 26 maart gevallen zijn, zegt het Wereldnatuurfonds.

Climate breakdown and crop losses threaten our survival, but the ultra-rich find ever more creative ways to maintain the status quo, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot

As the Arctic warms, shrinking glaciers are exposing bubbling groundwater springs which could provide an underestimated source of the potent greenhouse gas methane, finds new research published in Nature Geoscience. The study, led by researchers from the University of Cambridge and the University Center in Svalbard, Norway, identified large stocks of methane gas leaking from groundwater springs unveiled by melting glaciers.

Permafrost and glaciers in the high Arctic form an impermeable ‘cryospheric cap’ that traps a large reservoir of subsurface methane, preventing it from reaching the atmosphere. Cryospheric vulnerability to climate warming is making releases of this methane possible. On Svalbard, where air temperatures are rising more than two times faster than the average for the Arctic, glaciers are retreating and leaving behind exposed forefields that enable rapid methane escape. Here we document how methane-rich groundwater springs have formed in recently revealed forefields of 78 land-terminating glaciers across central Svalbard, bringing deep-seated methane gas to the surface. Waters collected from these springs during February–May of 2021 and 2022 are supersaturated with methane up to 600,000 times greater than atmospheric equilibration. Spatial sampling reveals a geological dependency on the extent of methane supersaturation, with isotopic evidence of a thermogenic source. We estimate annual methane emissions from prog

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and acc

If Nature were to draw a map of the world, what would it look like? One Earth presents a novel biogeographical framework called Bioregions 2023, which delineates 185 discrete bioregions organized within the world's major biogeographical realms.

Terrestrial ecosystems have taken up about 32% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the past six decades1. Large uncertainties in terrestrial carbon–climate feedbacks, however, make it difficult to predict how the land carbon sink will respond to future climate change2. Interannual variations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) are dominated by land–atmosphere carbon fluxes in the tropics, providing an opportunity to explore land carbon–climate interactions3–6. It is thought that variations in CGR are largely controlled by temperature7–10 but there is also evidence for a tight coupling between water availability and CGR11. Here, we use a record of global atmospheric CO2, terrestrial water storage and precipitation data to investigate changes in the interannual relationship between tropical land climate conditions and CGR under a changing climate. We find that the interannual relationship between tropical water availability and CGR became increasingly negative during 1989–2018 compared to 1960–1989

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1–3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are alrea

Going beyond climate disruption, the report by the Earth Commission group of scientists presents disturbing evidence that our planet faces growing crises of water availability, nutrient loading, ecosystem maintenance and aerosol pollution. These pose threats to the stability of life-support systems and worsen social equality.

Flash drought, characterized by unusually rapid drying, can have substantial impact on many socioeconomic sectors, particularly agriculture. However, potential changes to flash drought risk in a warming climate remain unknown. In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model simulations. We find that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel usage. Flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America (change in annual risk from 32% in 2015 to 49% in 2100) and Europe (32% to 53%) in the most extreme emissions scenario. Following low-end and medium scenarios compared to high-end scenarios indicates a notable reduction in annual flash drought risk over cropland. Flash droughts are projected to become more frequent unde

Earth Day - Dag van de Aarde - is één van de grootste milieu protestbewegingen ter wereld. Het begon in 1970 en vindt elk jaar plaats op 22 april. Ongeveer 1 miljard mensen uit meer dan 190 landen nemen deel aan demonstraties, projecten e...

Several nations plan to build new coal power plants, with China alone approving nearly 100 gigawatts. Each gigawatt is the equivalent of installing more than 3 million solar panels.

Une étude démographique commandée par le Club de Rome présente de nouvelles perspectives sur l’évolution de la population mondiale d’ici la fin du siècle. Cette étude réalisée par Earth4all revoit en effet à la baisse les projections sur le nombre d’habitants qui peupleront la Terre en 2100. Alors que les démographes de l’ONU estiment que, à ce moment-là, notre planète comptera 9,7 milliards d’humains, le rapport d’Earth4all avance un chiffre plus faible compris entre 6  et 7,3 milliards.