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Economic growth allows the few to grow ever-wealthier. Ending poverty and environmental catastrophe demands fresh thinking
À la veille des élections, des scientifiques mènent des actions dans la capitale pour alerter sur les risques climatiques. Les rapports alarmants sur le climat se multiplient, mais le monde politique n’en tient pas suffisamment compte aux yeux des scientifiques. Pour mieux se faire entendre, des chercheurs et académiques belges et internationaux ont donc décidé, en cette veille d’élections, d’opter pour la désobéissance civile.
Ce matin une vingtaine de scientifiques ont bloqué les entrées de la Commission européenne afin de réclamer la décroissance vue comme “la seule option pour sortir de l’impasse sociale et environnementale”
La crise écologique est une menace existentielle pour la vie sur Terre. Le GIEC estime que, sur notre trajectoire actuelle, il est très probable que nous dépassions même la limite des 2 degrés ¹ et que plusieurs points de basculement soient franchis ², au-delà desquels le réchauffement climatique s’accélérera de manière incontrôlée et les phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes deviendront la norme, ce qui conduira à une extinction massive.³ En outre, avec l’effondrement de la biodiversité et les pollutions de toutes sortes, 6 des 9 limites planétaires ont été franchies ⁴, causant des dommages irréversibles à la vie sur Terre et mettant en péril la sécurité alimentaire et hydrique. Face au plus grand défi jamais posé à l’humanité, nous devons prendre des mesures immédiates pour limiter cette catastrophe en cours.
Dangers of wildfires, extreme weather and other factors outgrowing preparedness, European Environment Agency says
After 50 years, there is still an ongoing debate about the Limits to Growth (LtG) study. This paper recalibrates the 2005 World3-03 model. The input parameters are changed to better match empirical data on world development. An iterative method is used to compute and optimize different parameter sets. This improved parameter set results in a World3 simulation that shows the same overshoot and collapse mode in the coming decade as the original business as usual scenario of the LtG standard run. The main effect of the recalibration update is to raise the peaks of most variables and move them a few years into the future. The parameters with the largest relative changes are those related to industrial capital lifetime, pollution transmission delay, and urban-industrial land development time.
Op woensdag 15 november om 15 uur verstoorden activisten van het GrowthKills-collectief [1] het "re-use v. recycle"-panel op de jaarlijkse Sustainability Future Week van Politico in Brussel, een evenement waar verslaggevers en redacteuren belangrijke politici, wetenschappers, campagnevoerders en bedrijfsleiders interviewen over het energie- en klimaatbeleid van de EU [2].
We beginnen de sociale en ecologische crises steeds meer te voelen, en dus valt “degrowth” of ‘ontgroei’ niet langer weg te denken uit het debat. Maar helaas circuleren er hardnekkige misverstanden over die ontgroei. Hoog tijd om die definitief uit de wereld te helpen, vindt econoom Jonas Van der Slycken.
Scientists have raised concerns about whether high-income countries, with their high per-capita CO2 emissions, can decarbonise fast enough to meet their obligations under the Paris Agreement if they continue to pursue aggregate economic growth. Over the past decade, some countries have reduced their CO2 emissions while increasing their gross domestic product (absolute decoupling). Politicians and media have hailed this as green growth. In this empirical study, we aimed to assess whether these achievements are consistent with the Paris Agreement, and whether Paris-compliant decoupling is within reach.
Background Scientists have raised concerns about whether high-income countries, with their high per-capita CO2 emissions, can decarbonise fast enough to meet their obligations under the Paris Agreement if they continue to pursue aggregate economic growth. Over the past decade, some countries have reduced their CO2 emissions while increasing their gross domestic product (absolute decoupling). Politicians and media have hailed this as green growth. In this empirical study, we aimed to assess whether these achievements are consistent with the Paris Agreement, and whether Paris-compliant decoupling is within reach.
Lancet study finds 'green growth' policies fall far short of what's needed to prevent dangerous change…
Met zo’n 2.500 waren ze, de deelnemers aan de Beyond Growth Conferentie in het Europees Parlement, en tel daarbij nog eens bijna het dubbele aantal deelnemers online. Hiermee was de conferentie het grootste evenement ooit over ‘de groei voorbij’, en zelfs het grootste evenement ooit in het Europees Parlement. Het initiatief lag bij een groep van 20 parlementsleden uit 5 grote fracties, met Philippe Lamberts (Ecolo) als stuwende kracht.
Na de coronapandemie, de oorlog in Oekraïne en de steeds sluimerende opstoten van migratiecrises, komt stilaan weer de meest omvangrijke van alle crises, de klimaatproblematiek, bovenaan de belangstelling van de media.
Wat wensen ouders hun pasgeboren kind? Dat het gezond is, dat het opgroeit tot een fijne tiener en uitgroeit tot een volwassen persoon. Er zijn geen ouders bekend die verlangen dat hun kind groeit en blijft groeien, en dus steeds groter wordt. Dat lijkt eerder iets voor een sprookje of beter een griezelverhaal. En toch is dit laatste verlangen de overheersende wens als het over onze economie gaat. Die moet groeien, en blijven groeien. Een land gaat zogezegd achteruit als het bruto binnenlands product niet groeit, als we niet steeds, jaar na jaar na jaar, meer producten en diensten produceren. En terwijl we ons goed kunnen voorstellen hoe onwezenlijk het zou als een kind zou blijven groeien – het huis, de stoelen, het eten, het zou allemaal te klein of te weinig zijn – lukt dat dus niet als het over de groei van de economie gaat in het huis van de mens, onze aarde. Terwijl die ook niet groeit. Sterker nog, ons leven gedijt enkel in die dunne laag boven en net in de aardkorst, de kwetsbare zone van de biosfeer,
Tijdens de legendarische coronalente van 2020 herontdekte MO*columniste Virginie Platteau de weldaden van tuinieren. Het voelde aan als een welgekomen pauze, maar niet op de manier zoals eerste minister De Croo dat ziet.
Terrestrial ecosystems have taken up about 32% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the past six decades1. Large uncertainties in terrestrial carbon–climate feedbacks, however, make it difficult to predict how the land carbon sink will respond to future climate change2. Interannual variations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) are dominated by land–atmosphere carbon fluxes in the tropics, providing an opportunity to explore land carbon–climate interactions3–6. It is thought that variations in CGR are largely controlled by temperature7–10 but there is also evidence for a tight coupling between water availability and CGR11. Here, we use a record of global atmospheric CO2, terrestrial water storage and precipitation data to investigate changes in the interannual relationship between tropical land climate conditions and CGR under a changing climate. We find that the interannual relationship between tropical water availability and CGR became increasingly negative during 1989–2018 compared to 1960–1989
Beyond Growth : quand la décroissance s’invite au parlement européen pour 3 jours de conférences Questionner les experts, les scientifiques et les décideurs politiques sur ce qu’il y aurait derrière le mythe de la croissance économique infinie, c’est ce qu’il s’est passé le lundi 15 mai et pour 3 jours au Parlement européen. Et plus …
Klimaatactiviste Anuna De Wever en filosoof Maarten Boudry mochten met elkaar in discussie gaan in De Afspraak afgelopen dinsdagavond (23 mei) op Eén. Mocht je Maarten niet kennen, moet je je nu niet schuldig voelen. In tegenstelling tot Anuna die haar mening verkondigt aan iedereen en dit op een vurige manier ter harte neemt, zal je Maarten niet tegenkomen op de straat.
Wie vandaag vasthoudt aan de achterhaalde logica dat “groene groei” het klimaatprobleem zal oplossen, staat buiten de vakgebieden van de ecologische economie en klimaatwetenschap, schrijft onderzoeker Nick Meynen. ‘Toch nodigt VRT zulke “experts” uit. Het resultaat? Erudiet verpakte desinformatie.’
Ondanks alle IPCC-rapporten over de klimaatcrisis stevenen we tegen 2100 nog steeds af op een opwarming van de aarde van 3 graden Celsius. Volgens de degrowth-beweging kan alleen een ander economisch model het tij keren. Ng Sauw Tjhoi praat hierover met economen Irma Emmery en Jonas Van der Slycken.
We’re sharing the open letter published to accompany the start of the “Beyond Growth” conference at the European Parliament, and signed by members of the Zagreb Degrowth Conference team.
À l’heure où Emmanuel Macron reçoit à Versailles les 200 dirigeants des plus grandes multinationales dont Elon Musk, pour leur rendez-vous annuel Choose France, le Parlement européen organise un évènement intitulé Beyond growth (au-delà de la croissance) pour alimenter l’engagement autour du Green deal. Négligé politiquement, cet ambitieux programme européen peut offrir une véritable sécurité climatique, économique et financière d’ici 2030 aux investisseurs et aux industriels selon une étude publiée ce mardi 16 mai.
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Terwijl politieke leiders bijeenkomen voor een tweede conferentie in het Europese Parlement over hoe we “voorbij groei” gaan, pleit een groep academici en maatschappelijke organisaties om de geopolitieke crisis aan te grijpen als een kans om in Europa van onze groeiafhankelijkheid los te komen.
Op 15 mei organiseert Denktank Oikos in samenwerking met Kunstencentrum 404 in Gent een debat met de belangrijkste 'degrowth'-denker van het moment, Jason Hickel. Oikos-hoofdredacteur Dirk Holemans daarover: “'Ontgroei' (degrowth) is een filosofisch concept: het toont dat we een heel ander maatschappelijk verhaal nodig hebben dan het blinde groeidenken.”
An open-access academic journal on degrowth
Tien jaar na Rana Plaza is er het boek “Kleerkastvasten” van journaliste en fairfashionexperte Sarah Vandoorne. Het is een wereldwijde zoektocht naar de processen, impact en verduurzaming van de kledingindustrie.
Beyond Growth – Pathways towards Sustainable Prosperity in the EU. Programme de la conférence
Misguided policies are hurting the poorest in society; our focus should be on reducing inequality not increasing GDP
Letters: I risked prison to stand up against an system that will lead to ecological and societal collapse – we must look for alternative economic models, writes Zoe Cohen
Concerns about climate change shrank across the world last year, with fewer than half of those questioned in a new survey believing it posed a “very serious threat” to their countries over the next 20 years.
conférence de Dennis Meadows, analyste des systèmes, initiateur et co-auteur du rapport Les limites de la croissance, Club de Rome, 1972 lundi 19 septembre 2022 ENS de Lyon, amphithéâtre Mérieux
Leestip van deze zomerse week: de Britse archeoloog David Wengrow bundelde, samen met de intussen overleden antropoloog David Graeber, de jongste antropologische en archeologische kennis en inzichten in Het begin van alles. Het is een vuistdik boek, dat internationaal een hype werd nog voor het verscheen. De auteurs nemen afstand van de speculatieve en deterministische geschiedenissen van de mensheid, bedacht door filosofen uit de 16de en 17de eeuw, die tot vandaag ons denken blijven bepalen.
Le rapport Meadows est le livre fondateur des actions de transition écologique. En voici un résumé destiné aux lycéens.
The 1972 book "The Limits to Growth" shared a somber message for humanity: the Earth's resources are finite and probably cannot support current rates of economic and population growth to the end of the 21st century, even with advanced technology. Although disparaged by economists at the time, it turns out that, 50 years later, the message still deserves our attention.
We need to break free from the capitalist economy. Degrowth gives us the tools to bend its bars.
Degrowth offers perspectives that should be integrated into the Green New Deal, argue the authors of a new book, The Future Is Degrowth.
Drought blighting country’s longest waterway continues as economic hub battles climate crisis
Degrowth is a radical economic theory born in the 1970s. It broadly means shrinking rather than growing economies, to use less of the world’s dwindling resources. Detractors of degrowth say economic growth has given the world everything from cancer treatments to indoor plumbing. Supporters argue that degrowth doesn’t mean “living in caves with candles” – but just living a bit more simply.
On degrowth in general
Jan Rotmans wist een halve eeuw geleden al dat er een klimaatcrisis op til was. En dat die heftig zou worden. Maar er is hoop. ‘De gedragsverandering kan heel snel gaan als het moet.’
In 1972, a book changed the world. The Club of Rome commissioned a report that shifted how we see what humans are doing to the planet. Looking back five decades later, what happened next, what did we do and not do, what did we learn, and what happens now? In The Limits to Growth, a team from MIT studied the way humans were using the resources of the earth. Using sophisticated computer modelling, the researchers developed scenarios to map out possible paths for humanity, the global economy and the impact on the planet.
Presentation of the book "Beyond the Limits," a new report to the Club of Roma edited by Ugo Bardi and Carlos Alvarez Pereira. It tells the story of the 1972 study "The Limits to Growth" and its relevance 50 years later.
Previous studies show that city metrics having to do with growth, productivity and overall energy consumption scale superlinearly, attributing this to the social nature of cities. Superlinear scaling results in crises called ‘singularities’, where population and energy demand tend to infinity in a finite amount of time, which must be avoided by ever more frequent ‘resets’ or innovations that postpone the system's collapse. Here, we place the emergence of cities and planetary civilizations in the context of major evolutionary transitions. With this perspective, we hypothesize that once a planetary civilization transitions into a state that can be described as one virtually connected global city, it will face an ‘asymptotic burnout’, an ultimate crisis where the singularity-interval time scale becomes smaller than the time scale of innovation. If a civilization develops the capability to understand its own trajectory, it will have a window of time to affect a fundamental change to prioritize long-term homeosta
Centraal in dit boek staat de vaststelling dat het kapitalisme niet in staat is de klimaatverandering en ecologische ineenstorting op te lossen. Het schetst een duidelijke weg naar een postkapitalistische economie.
Hans Demeyer las 'Minder is Meer' van Jason Hickel en vergeleek dit boek met 'Waarom ons klimaat niet naar de knoppen gaat (als we het hoofd koel houden)' van Maarten Boudry.
It took me a while but I finally digested the 107 pages of Chapter 5: Demand, services and social aspects of mitigation in the last IPCC report on Mitigation of climate change. This chapter is worth the read if only because it’s the first one fully dedicated to demand-side strategies. What I find remarkable is its conceptual width, including a few ideas that are usually considered too radical in these kind of venues. But just like the rest of the report, it is long and – as academic writing too often is – full of abstract jargon and somnolent prose. What I want to do in this article is to explain why Chapter 5 is more radical (in the good sense of the term) that you may think.
Au début des années 1970, le club de Rome1 s’interroge sur la pérennité de la croissance dans un mode fini. Il confie une étude au Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Une équipe de recherche, emmenée par Dennis Meadows2, conçoit une modélisation du système socio-économique humain et de ses interactions avec la planète : le modèle World3. En 1972 paraît The Limits to Growth (Les limites à la croissance). Ce rapport, qui montre que la croissance a des limites, et que sa poursuite au-delà conduirait à l’effondrement du système, fait grand bruit.
Capitalism isn’t what it used to be. Since 2008, critics of the world’s dominant economic system have been lamenting its imperviousness to change. And for good reason. In earlier epochs, financial crises and pandemics wrought economic transformation. In our own, they seem to have yielded more of the same. Before the 2008 crash, global capitalism was characterized by organized labor’s weakness, rising inequality within nations, and a growth model that offset mediocre wage gains with asset-price appreciation. All of these have remained features of the world’s economic order.
Researchers must try to resolve a dispute on the best way to use and care for Earth’s resources. Fifty years ago this month, the System Dynamics group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge had a stark message for the world: continued economic and population growth would deplete Earth’s resources and lead to global economic collapse by 2070. This finding was from their 200-page book The Limits to Growth, one of the first modelling studies to forecast the environmental and social impacts of industrialization.
The war in Ukraine and surging oil prices are other factors that could prompt PBOC action when it announces its policy loan rates Tuesday, as the nation aims to achieve a growth target of 5.5% for the year. The Hong Kong and China stocks sold off Monday, led by losses in technology shares, due to risks from Beijing’s close relationship with Russia and regulatory concerns.
En 1972 paraissait un rapport scientifique qui fit l’effet d’une bombe. Le rapport Meadows, intitulé « The limits to growth », annonçait pour la première fois au monde les limites physiques de la croissance économique. Sa conclusion est formelle : la persistance du modèle de société actuel et l’épuisement des ressources qui en découle conduit inévitablement à un « crash » dramatique au cours du XXIe siècle. Pourtant, 50 ans plus tard rien ne semble avoir changé. Dans le podcast Dernières Limites, la journaliste Audrey Boehly fait le point en interrogeant des experts et des scientifiques de la question. Quelle marge de manœuvre nous reste-il pour inverser la tendance ? Quel avenir est encore possible à la lumière des ressources disponibles et des enjeux écologiques à venir ? Entretien.
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Only rarely does a book truly change the world. In the nineteenth century, such a book was Charles Darwin’s On the Origin of Species. For the twentieth century, it was The Limits to Growth. Not only did this best-selling 1972 publication help spur the environmental movement, but it showed that the underlying dynamics of the modern industrial world are unsustainable on the timescale of a couple of human lifetimes. This was profoundly important information, and it was delivered credibly and clearly, so that every policy maker could understand it.
During the last shale oil boom when producers were racing to see who could pump the most the fastest, some experts warned that shale oil had a flaw that would come to haunt these producers: wells were quick to start producing but also quick to deplete. Now, industry data suggests that the depletion is advancing. The Wall Street Journal’s Colin Eaton cited reserve inventory data from the shale patch in a recent analysis that pointed to a stable decline that may be irreversible. Eaton also quoted industry executives as making plans for such an irreversible development.
There’s a new horse race in 2022. It’s one that we would rather lose than win. If our analysis is right, the world will probably blow through the 1.5°C global warming ceiling this decade; if we’re wrong, it could be delayed a decade. We argue[1],[2] that the apparent acceleration of global warming in the past decade is driven by an acceleration in the growth rate of human-made climate forcings, especially reduced human-made aerosol cooling – an effect that is not going away and may grow.
Infinite growth on a finite planet has pushed us into crisis, and this forum tackles the difficult questions and taboo topics: Bursting the fantasy of sustainability based on clean energy transition and arguing for equitable approaches to global population. Pathways forward include a deliberate contraction of the human enterprise and a planned collapse.
In het vlijmscherpe essay ‘Consumeren als konijnen’ veegt Soumaya Majdoub (VUB) de hardnekkige mythe van de aardbol dat overbevolking de motor van de klimaatverstoring is. Green Growth en geboortebeperking zijn slechts schijnoplossingen, gestoeld op verkeerde veronderstellingen en bangmakerij.
The fundamental assumption underlying these beliefs is that economic growth can be “decoupled” from resource and ecological demands and impacts. That is, it is claimed that the rate of production and consumption can continue to increase while the resources needed to do this can be reduced to sustainable levels, along with the environmental damage it causes. It is disturbing that this tech-fix faith persists despite the mountain of evidence that it is wrong.
Intensive agriculture’s insatiable thirst for water is turning wetland to wasteland, draining rivers and polluting groundwater
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Some economists have long argued that to really save the planet – and ourselves – from the climate crisis, we need a fundamental overhaul of the way our economies work. In this episode of The Conversation Weekly, we explore the ideas of the degrowth movement and their calls for a contraction in the world’s consumption of energy and resources. We also compare degrowth to other post-growth proposals for governments to reduce their fixation with economic growth.
Il y a 50 ans Dennis Meadows co-publiait le rapport « Meadows ». Ce rapport est aussi appelé rapport du Club de Rome, ou « limits to growth ». Il dit en bref qu’une croissance infinie dans un monde fini n’est pas possible et que tôt ou tard, nous allons atteindre des limites physiques et commencer à décroître. Et d’après les modélisations de l’époque, ce « tôt ou tard » arrive autour de 2030…
Pledges to plant trees fall from politicians’ lips like leaves in the autumn, especially during elections and climate summits. Yet ambitious government planting targets are likely to be missed because there are not enough trees or people to plant them, leading forestry figures have warned.
The second draft of the IPCC Group III report, focused on mitigation strategies, states that we must move away from the current capitalist model to avoid surpassing planetary boundaries and climate and ecological catastrophe). It also confirms our previous reports, covered by CTXT and The Guardian, that “greenhouse gas emissions must peak in the next four years”. The new leak acknowledges that there is little or no room for further economic growth.
in a new study, we discovered that secondary forests across the Amazon are absorbing just 9.7% of the emissions created by the destruction of old-growth forests in the region. That’s despite these regrowing habitats occupying 28.8% of all deforested land.
one-third of all food produced each year is squandered or spoiled before it can be consumed. Research also suggests that high-income countries waste as much food as sub-Saharan Africa produces. This food waste then ends up in landfills to rot – which releases greenhouse gases. And when this is combined with the amount of energy it takes to produce, manufacture, transport and store this food, it contributes a staggering 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide to our planet.
A group of leading international researchers have issued a stark new warning to governments that relying on technology alone will not be enough to address the growing climate emergency, saying that presumptions that economic growth can continue unchecked should be challenged.
The “degrowth” movement to fight the climate crisis offers a romantic, utopian vision. But it’s not a policy agenda.
Dans une Amérique à peine sortie des Golden Sixties et pas encore tout à fait dans la première crise pétrolière, ce livre, également connu sous le nom de "Rapport Meadows", fut d’abord taxé de catastrophiste et fit l’objet de nombreuses controverses (ce qui ne l’empêcha pas de devenir un best-seller). Les projections présentes dans "The limits to growth" étaient pourtant loin des prédictions apocalyptiques ésotériques très en vogue à l’époque. Ces projections étaient le résultat d’une modélisation tout ce qu’il y a de plus scientifique et sérieux.
In the 1972 bestseller Limits to Growth(LtG), the authors concluded that if humanity kept pursuing economic growth without regard for environmental and socialcosts, global society would experience as harpdecline(i.e.,collapse) in economic, social, and environmental conditions within thetwenty-firstcentury.
Ces dernières décennies sont marquées par la crainte d’un déclin de notre civilisation telle que nous la connaissons, alors même que les progrès technologiques et industriels semblent exponentiels. La surpopulation et la surconsommation placent les générations actuelles dans une véritable impasse. En 1972, une équipe de scientifiques du MIT a publié une étude prédisant la fin de ce que l’on appelle la « civilisation industrielle » au cours du 21e siècle, et ces prédictions semblent aujourd’hui totalement en phase avec la réalité, selon une nouvelle étude.
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MIT Predicted in 1972 That Society Will Collapse This Century. New Research Shows We’re on Schedule.
(14/07) - Nafeez AhmedA 1972 MIT study predicted that rapid economic growth would lead to societal collapse in the mid 21st century. A new paper shows we’re unfortunately right on schedule.
The massive and growing ‘forever chemicals’ scandal in Belgium marks the culmination and possible endpoint of the endless growth logic, not to mention the privatising of profit and the socialising of costs. This was reflected in the leaked secret settlement, reached in 2018, between a Flemish government-owned company (Lantis) and a mega-multinational (3M), which leaves the taxpayers footing the bill, currently estimated at €63 million, for just a small part of the enormous PFOS pollution that seeped into the soil and water around the 3M plant in Zwijndrecht.
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Even “sustainable” technologies such as electric vehicles and wind turbines face unbreachable physical limits and exact grave environmental costs
New research suggests social transformations that prompt “degrowth” could cut humanity’s climate footprint in time to meet the Paris climate agreement target.
In our latest study, scientists from France, Germany, Netherlands, and the UK collaborated to examine whether and to what extent human-induced climate change had a part to play in the cold early April following a very warm March 2021 that led to large scale frost damages in grapevines and fruit trees in central France.
A new report, published on 14 March, 2021 in the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences’ journal Ambio, points out that humanity is hurtling towards destruction unless we have the collective wisdom to change course quickly.
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