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Environmental Science
Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10–90% range: 23–71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stabili
Anthropogenic emissions drive global-scale warming yet the temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels is uncertain. Using 300 years of ocean mixed-layer temperature records preserved in sclerosponge carbonate skeletons, we demonstrate that industrial-era warming began in the mid-1860s, more than 80 years earlier than instrumental sea surface temperature records. The Sr/Ca palaeothermometer was calibrated against ‘modern’ (post-1963) highly correlated (R2 = 0.91) instrumental records of global sea surface temperatures, with the pre-industrial defined by nearly constant (<±0.1 °C) temperatures from 1700 to the early 1860s. Increasing ocean and land-air temperatures overlap until the late twentieth century, when the land began warming at nearly twice the rate of the surface oceans. Hotter land temperatures, together with the earlier onset of industrial-era warming, indicate that global warming was already 1.7 ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2020. Our result is 0.5 °C higher than IPCC estim
Permafrost and glaciers in the high Arctic form an impermeable ‘cryospheric cap’ that traps a large reservoir of subsurface methane, preventing it from reaching the atmosphere. Cryospheric vulnerability to climate warming is making releases of this methane possible. On Svalbard, where air temperatures are rising more than two times faster than the average for the Arctic, glaciers are retreating and leaving behind exposed forefields that enable rapid methane escape. Here we document how methane-rich groundwater springs have formed in recently revealed forefields of 78 land-terminating glaciers across central Svalbard, bringing deep-seated methane gas to the surface. Waters collected from these springs during February–May of 2021 and 2022 are supersaturated with methane up to 600,000 times greater than atmospheric equilibration. Spatial sampling reveals a geological dependency on the extent of methane supersaturation, with isotopic evidence of a thermogenic source. We estimate annual methane emissions from prog
Flash drought, characterized by unusually rapid drying, can have substantial impact on many socioeconomic sectors, particularly agriculture. However, potential changes to flash drought risk in a warming climate remain unknown. In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model simulations. We find that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel usage. Flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America (change in annual risk from 32% in 2015 to 49% in 2100) and Europe (32% to 53%) in the most extreme emissions scenario. Following low-end and medium scenarios compared to high-end scenarios indicates a notable reduction in annual flash drought risk over cropland. Flash droughts are projected to become more frequent unde
Human activity is putting the Earth on a trajectory towards environmental collapse. The SDGs were adopted in2015 to reconcile human activity with planetary boundaries. So far, the SDGs have not lived up to their promise in European Union member states. Most EU countries have seen socioeconomic development alongside environmental degradation. Progress towards environmental sustainability only occurs in countries with slow or negative socioeconomic trends.
Selon des recherches américaines publiées mercredi dans la revue scientifique Environmental Science & Technology, divers produits pour enfants - des vêtements aux housses de meubles et aux taies d'oreiller - contiennent des substances per- et polyfluoroalkylées (PFAS).
We submit that the safe operating space of the planetary boundary of novel entities is exceeded since annual production and releases are increasing at a pace that outstrips the global capacity for assessment and monitoring. The novel entities boundary in the planetary boundaries framework refers to entities that are novel in a geological sense and that could have large-scale impacts that threaten the integrity of Earth system processes. We review the scientific literature relevant to quantifying the boundary for novel entities and highlight plastic pollution as a particular aspect of high concern. An impact pathway from production of novel entities to impacts on Earth system processes is presented.
Le glyphosate fait encore parler de lui. Le pesticide le plus utilisé dans le monde, et particulièrement en France, est au centre d’une nouvelle recherche. L’étude publiée mercredi dans la revue Environmental Science and Pollution Research et menée sur 6 848 personnes partout en France métropolitaine et à la Réunion est sans équivoque : la quasi-totalité des urines analysées sont contaminées au glyphosate.
Des sommets aux profondeurs. Après les microplastiques découverts mardi sur le Pic du Midi, dans les Pyrénées, voilà ces minuscules particules détectées dans nos selles. Et particulièrement lorsque l’on est atteint de troubles intestinaux. Comme le révèle le Guardian, une étude publiée dans la revue Environmental Science & Technology montre que les personnes atteintes d’une maladie inflammatoire de l’intestin (MII) présentent 50% de microplastiques en plus dans leurs selles.
La colère risque de faire tache d’huile. Total avait connaissance des conséquences néfastes de ses activités pour le climat dès 1971 mais a entretenu le doute à la fin des années 1980 et cherché ensuite à contrecarrer les efforts pour limiter le recours à ces énergies fossiles, selon un article scientifique paru mercredi dans la revue Global Environmental Change. Christophe Bonneuil, directeur de recherche au CNRS, Pierre-Louis Choquet, sociologue à Sciences po, et Benjamin Franta, chercheur en histoire à l’université américaine de Stanford, ont étudié les archives du groupe pétrolier, devenu TotalEnergies, ainsi que des revues internes et des interviews.
Total a sciemment minimisé son rôle dans la menace du changement climatique, selon des scientifiques
(20/10) - AfpChristophe Bonneuil, directeur de recherche au CNRS, Pierre-Louis Choquet, sociologue à Sciences po, et Benjamin Franta, chercheur en histoire à l'université américaine de Stanford, ont étudié les archives du groupe pétrolier, devenu TotalEnergies, ainsi que des revues internes et des interviews, selon cet article publié dans la revue Global Environmental Change.
After a century of wielding extraordinary economic and political power, America’s petroleum giants face a reckoning for driving the greatest existential threat of our lifetimes. An unprecedented wave of lawsuits, filed by cities and states across the US, aim to hold the oil and gas industry to account for the environmental devastation caused by fossil fuels – and covering up what they knew along the way.
Agricultural pesticide use and its associated environmental harms is widespread throughout much of the world. Efforts to mitigate this harm have largely been focused on reducing pesticide contamination of the water and air, as runoff and pesticide drift are the most significant sources of offsite pesticide movement. Yet pesticide contamination of the soil can also result in environmental harm.
En tant qu'intellectuels et citoyens engagés, et juchés sur les épaules de géants -ces dizaines de milliers de citoyens et décideurs engagés depuis plus de 6 mois-, il est de notre devoir de contribuer à ce que les partis et candidats expriment leur programme politique et que les citoyens votent en âme et conscience.
Conceptual frameworks in the realm of climate-related policy, attitudes and behavior frequently argue that moral emotions play a crucial role in mobilizing pro-environmental action. Yet, little is known about the direct impact of moral emotions on environmental attitudes and behavior. Drawing on emotion research in the context of intergroup relations, the current paper investigates the role of guilty conscience (guilt and shame) as well as other emotions (anger, sadness, pride, and emotional coldness) in motivating pro-environmental behavior intentions and actual behavior as a specific form of reparative action. When confronted with human-caused (vs. seemingly natural) environmental damages, participants (N=114) reported significantly more guilty conscience. Importantly, participants in the humancaused condition were significantly more likely to spontaneously display actual proenvironmental behavior (sign a petition addressing environmental issues). Highlighting its psychological significance in motivating pr