Résultats pour:
Jordan I. Christian, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA, Elinor R. Martin, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA, Jeffrey B. Basara, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA, University of Oklahoma, School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA, Jason C. Furtado, University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, USA, Jason A. Otkin, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, USA, Lauren E. L. Lowman, Wake Forest University, Department of Engineering, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, USA, Eric D. Hunt, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, USA, Vimal Mishra, Indian Institute of Technol
2023
Flash drought, characterized by unusually rapid drying, can have substantial impact on many socioeconomic sectors, particularly agriculture. However, potential changes to flash drought risk in a warming climate remain unknown. In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model simulations. We find that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel usage. Flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America (change in annual risk from 32% in 2015 to 49% in 2100) and Europe (32% to 53%) in the most extreme emissions scenario. Following low-end and medium scenarios compared to high-end scenarios indicates a notable reduction in annual flash drought risk over cropland. Flash droughts are projected to become more frequent unde
