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A deal is welcome after talks nearly collapsed but the final agreement contains small steps rather than leaps

There is rising concern that several parts of the Earth system may abruptly transition to alternative stable states in response to anthropogenic climate and land-use change. Key candidates of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the South American monsoon system and the Amazon rainforest. Owing to the complex dynamics and feedbacks between them via oceanic and atmospheric coupling, the levels of anthropogenic forcing at which transitions to alternative states can be expected remain uncertain. Here we demonstrate how such interactions can generate spurious signals and potentially mask genuine signs of destabilization. We further review and present observation-based evidence that the stability of these four tipping elements has declined in recent decades, suggesting that they have moved towards their critical thresholds, which may be crossed within the range of unmitigated anthropogenic warming. Our results call for better monitoring of these ti

Unless global heating is reduced to 1.2C ‘as fast as possible’, warm water coral reefs will not remain ‘at any meaningful scale’, a report by 160 scientists from 23 countries warns

GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS REPORT - 2025

GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS REPORT 2025 - Summary

Global risk management for human prosperity

The planet is edging close to irreversible change, according to the most comprehensive probability analysis yet of climate “tipping points.”

Economic assumptions about risks of the climate crisis are no longer relevant, says the communications expert Genevieve Guenther

The world has been too optimistic about the risk to humanity and planet – but devastation can still be avoided, says Timothy Lenton

Despite working on polar science for the British Antarctic Survey for 20 years, Louise Sime finds the magnitude of potential sea-level rise hard to comprehend

Lenton, the founding director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, was the lead author of the 2008 paper that formally introduced the idea of tipping points in the Earth’s climate system.

Tipping elements within the Earth system are increasingly well understood. Scientists have identified more than 25 parts of the Earth’s climate system that are likely to have “tipping points” – thresholds where a small additional change in global warming will cause them to irreversibly shift into a new state. The “tipping” of these systems – which include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the Greenland ice sheet – would have profound consequences for both the biosphere and people. More recent research suggests that triggering one tipping element could cause subsequent changes in other tipping elements, potentially leading to a “tipping cascade”. For example, a collapsed AMOC could lead to dieback of the Amazon rainforest and hasten the melt of the Greenland ice sheet.

If despair is the most unforgivable sin, then hope is surely the most abused virtue. That observation feels particularly apposite as we enter the Cop season, that time of United Nations megaconferences at the end of every year, when national leaders feel obliged to convince us the future will be better, despite growing evidence to the contrary.

For many of us the climate crisis mainly calls to mind rising global temperatures, but the crisis goes far beyond this – we are at risk of pushing our planet across climate ‘tipping points,’ critical thresholds where small changes can lead to abrupt and irreversible shifts in the Earth’s climate system. One major element in climate tipping is a huge system of ocean currents, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is responsible for Europe's relatively mild climate. Past climate patterns show that these currents can switch abruptly between today’s vigorous flow and a much weaker flow state. A future shutdown would have potentially devastating consequences in Europe and around the world.

The Global Tipping Points Report was launched at COP28 on 6 December 2023. The report is an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society. Global Tipping Points is led by Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute with the support of more than 200 researchers from over 90 organisations in 26 countries.

A recent paper suggested damaging climate tipping points could be closer than first thought.

An international team of scientists has warned against relying on nature providing straightforward 'early warning' indicators of a climate disaster, as new mathematical modeling shows new fascinating aspects of the complexity of the dynamics of climate. It suggests that the climate system could be more unpredictable than previously thought.

Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass displacement and financial ruin as planet warms

Take part in the new scientific discussion about looming abrupt changes in the Earth system. This new webinar series invites scientists interested in tipping elements and the broader public to attend.

Amazon rainforest and other ecosystems could collapse ‘very soon’, researchers warn