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Emerging climate extremes should draw public attention to human-caused climate change. We expect unusual sea surface temperature (SST) and global warming the rest of this year to make 2026 hotter than 2024, despite 2024 being a peak El Nino year, while 2026 is only the lead-in year of an emerging El Nino. Beware the “surprise” record high being blamed on an extreme El Nino on top of global warming otherwise consistent with IPCC estimates. Instead, record warmth provides additional evidence of high climate sensitivity and increased net climate forcing in the past decade. These two factors are driving an unusual increase in global SSTs with major consequences. If you bear with our discussion to the end, you will find some possible good news. Figures in this post are continually updated on our website.[2] We are now on Substack[3].
Exclusive: Global investigation reveals 235 lawsuits have been brought against governments in five countries since 2010
Increasing instability of the ocean, ice and atmosphere threatens farming, finance and society. We all need to wake up to that fact.
Exclusive: High-level documents show how Copa Cogeca worked to weaken legislation to protect climate and wildlife
Projections of near-term climate change are a potential research tool. However, for that tool to be most useful, the physical basis for a prediction must be made clear. The basis for our projection of record 2026 global temperature is high climate sensitivity, with its implication that aerosol cooling was still increasing during the period 1970-2005. One consequence, global sea surface warming, already has important effects. Causes of climate change must be understood for policy purposes. Figures in this post and our recent papers are continually updated on our website.[1] We are also now on Substack[2].
And why when we do see it, we fail to act.
Weather cycle threatens harvests worldwide, adding to inflation already fuelled by the Iran war
Members of parliament have demanded full publication of an explosive report by the UK’s spy leaders that found the collapse of ecosystems overseas would have catastrophic consequences for the UK’s national security, warning that the UK has “no future” if the findings are not urgently acted on.
Daily Sea Surface Temperature
A vast system of Atlantic currents that delivers warmth to northern Europe is at risk of collapse, according to a growing body of research. The latest study to warn of its demise finds there is at least a 10 percent chance that a collapse may already be “locked in.”
The fluoropolymer industry is at it again. The industry’s most notable products are non-stick industrial coatings such as Teflon, made using forever chemicals (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances: PFAS). But as the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) starts to wind up its second public consultation on the proposed EU PFAS ban, the fluoropolymer industry is once again mobilising its customers to criticise alternatives to their products.
New research shows major lenders are accelerating their investment in Big Oil as the industry turns toward plastics and petrochemicals.
Closed-door talks over the World Bank’s climate agenda have stalled, as the US pushes to scrap green targets and expand support for fossil fuels
European scientists warn of consequences for weather patterns, the global climate and marine life
For most of the modern era, capitalism justified itself through growth. Industrial societies converted vast amounts of fossil energy into production, wealth, and rising living standards. Roads, bridges, power grids, schools, and public institutions expanded alongside the economy. Inequality and exploitation remained deeply embedded in the system, but they were partly obscured by a broader story of material progress.
Drug-resistant bacteria are no longer confined to hospital settings but are spreading into communities in every country
The climate and nature crisis threatens all aspects of British life, from national security to the food supply. Despite the scale of the risks now facing the UK, there has been no comprehensive national emergency briefing delivered to the public by the Government.
Climate scientists warn of unprecedented Antarctic heatwave, with temperatures 20C above normal. Loss of sea ice threatens marine life and penguins.
Study also finds high humidity means people in hundreds of cities are enduring their worst ever heat stress
A new report has uncovered the many risks of participating in climate and environmental protests across the world – and how more countries are criminalising and repressing this activity in a bid to keep it in check.
