English references

Emerging climate extremes should draw public attention to human-caused climate change. We expect unusual sea surface temperature (SST) and global warming the rest of this year to make 2026 hotter than 2024, despite 2024 being a peak El Nino year, while 2026 is only the lead-in year of an emerging El Nino. Beware the “surprise” record high being blamed on an extreme El Nino on top of global warming otherwise consistent with IPCC estimates. Instead, record warmth provides additional evidence of high climate sensitivity and increased net climate forcing in the past decade. These two factors are driving an unusual increase in global SSTs with major consequences. If you bear with our discussion to the end, you will find some possible good news. Figures in this post are continually updated on our website.[2] We are now on Substack[3].

Weather cycle threatens harvests worldwide, adding to inflation already fuelled by the Iran war

Daily Sea Surface Temperature

Projections of near-term climate change are a potential research tool. However, for that tool to be most useful, the physical basis for a prediction must be made clear. The basis for our projection of record 2026 global temperature is high climate sensitivity, with its implication that aerosol cooling was still increasing during the period 1970-2005. One consequence, global sea surface warming, already has important effects. Causes of climate change must be understood for policy purposes. Figures in this post and our recent papers are continually updated on our website.[1] We are also now on Substack[2].

Terms such as El Nino, La Nina and ENSO are thrown around a lot in relation to Australian weather, but what do they actually mean for us and the rest of the world?

Brutal El Nino, drought, war threatens food supply

You may have heard the rumors of a "monster El Niño." It's not the first time we've heard forecasts like this in Australia, but this time, they aren't coming out of nowhere. Early signs in the Pacific have been building for months and forecasts now point to a high likelihood of a moderate to strong El Niño developing in 2026.

A fire fighter tackles a wildfire

Beneath the surface of the Pacific, a massive pool of heat is preparing to reshape global weather patterns. Time is running out to prepare for a climate shock of unprecedented scale. As 2026 unfolds, the Pacific Ocean is priming a catastrophic El Niño that threatens to cripple global food systems, trigger widespread economic instability, and shatter planetary temperature records.

Environment News: UNITED NATIONS: Vanuatu will renew its climate justice fight at the United Nations General Assembly with a draft resolution that was watered down afte.

Vanuatu is asking two questions to the ICJ: what are the legal obligations of states in regard to climate justice, and what are the legal consequences for states that do not meet these obligations.