Sélection du moment:
Jumping into the future head first, blindfolded, handcuffed, and in darkness
In a previous post, I defined this graph as “the most amazing graph of the 21st century.” It shows how the US oil production restarted growing in 2010, picking up speed and surpassing the historical record of the “Hubbert Peak,” which took place in 1970. It overcame the dip caused by the Covid pandemic and, two years after my first post on this subject, it keeps growing.
You would think that we have more than sufficient troubles caused by global warming, pollution, resource depletion, biodiversity loss, ecosystem disruption and a few more. But there is a problem that’s not directly related to the natural world, but by a purely human construction: the financial market. Here is a discussion by Ian Schindler — maître de conference émérite (emeritus professor of mathematics) at the University of Toulouse 1, France, who proposes that we are close to a financial collapse.
A post for the anniversary of the execution of Sophie Scholl by the German Nazis in 1943
Hérauts de la colère agricole européenne, les paysans polonais mobilisés depuis le printemps 2023, multiplient les blocages à la frontière pour s’opposer à la surpression des droits de douane sur les produits ukrainiens.
The Goddess is said to be benevolent and merciful, but she may get angry and become cruel and ruthless. We are used to discussing major events that may destroy civilization, or even the whole humankind. Most are related to global warming: tipping points, “hothouse Earth,” famines, tsunamis, and all the rest. Then, there are other human-made disasters, including the nuclear holocaust and homemade exterminations that can be carried out with simple tools such as machetes. Recently, it became fashionable to cite artificial intelligence as a threat to human beings.
The new version of the “Seneca Effect” blog on Substack is doing reasonably well, so I thought it was time to prepare a page that explains what the Seneca Effect is and what it can teach us. (image by Dall-E) During the 1st Century AD, the Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca observed the start of the disintegration of the Roman Empire. It was a process that would take a few more centuries to complete, but that was already evident to those who were willing to look beyond the surface of the still powerful Empire.
Clément Sénéchal, expert des enjeux climatiques et ancien porte-parole chez Greenpeace, fustige le manque d’ambition des résultats de l’accord de la COP 28 à Dubaï.
La plainte cible les liens entre le papetier canadien et le « destructeur de forêts » APP, documentés au printemps par une enquête du « Monde » et de plusieurs médias internationaux.
« Fossil Finance » (1/2). Les banques ont aidé l’industrie fossile à trouver plus de 1 000 milliards d’euros de financements depuis 2016 sur le marché obligataire. Les établissements français sont impliqués dans une grande partie de ces opérations.
Pourquoi y a-t-il moins de neige ? Les animaux vont-ils disparaître ? A quoi les arbres servent-ils ? Découvrez nos fiches synthétiques, illustrées et téléchargeables pour expliquer le réchauffement et ses conséquences concrètes.
La loi demande depuis dix ans aux grandes entreprises de chiffrer leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre, mais la majorité des acteurs concernés ne la respectent pas.
Il est possible, au moins en partie, de jauger la crédibilité environnementale d’un placement sans être ingénieur financier.
Charbon, pétrole, gaz, aviation… Le contenu des placements censés être les plus écologiques est loin des promesses de façade, révèle une vaste enquête européenne dont « Le Monde » est partenaire.
Years ago, James Schlesinger noted that human beings have only two operational modes: complacency and panic. It is an observation that rings true and that we can generalize in terms of groups: some humans are catastrophists, and some are cornucopians. I tend to side with the catastrophists, to the point that I created the term "Seneca Effect" or "Seneca Cliff" to define the rapid decline that comes after that growth stops. Indeed, catastrophes are a common occurrence in human history, but it is also true that sometimes (rarely) a catastrophic decline can be reversed: I termed this effect the "Seneca Rebound."
Un trajet en jet privé émet-il plus qu’une année de repas carnés ? Quel est l’impact carbone d’un jean neuf ? Testez vos connaissances avec notre quiz.
L’empreinte carbone moyenne des Français s’établit environ à 9 tonnes, alors qu’il faudrait la ramener à 2 tonnes pour limiter le changement climatique. Des petits gestes, de vrais efforts et une remise en question du système économique et social actuel… Les objectifs de lutte contre le changement climatique appellent des décisions politiques fortes et de profonds bouleversements pour chacun.
Préserver le portefeuille des Français, se préparer à se passer du gaz russe, lutter contre le changement climatique… Si la nécessité de réduire la consommation d’énergie est une évidence, les enjeux sont multiples.
We have reviewed the first two chapters of the new book Limits and Beyond. The reviews can be found at The Yawning Gap (Chapter 1) and No More Growth (Chapter 2). In this post we take a look at the third chapter, written by Dennis Meadows, a co-author of the original Limits to Growth. Dr. Meadows reports that he has delivered over a thousand speeches to a very wide variety of audiences. In this chapter the author summarizes “19 of the most common questions, comments and objections” that he has received over the years. Some of his insights are as follows:
The book Limits and Beyond, edited by Ugo Bardi and Carlos Alwarez Pereira, provides a 50th anniversary review of the seminal report Limits to Growth (LtG). The following is from the back cover of the book. 50 years ago the Club of Rome commissioned a report: Limits to Growth. They told us that, on our current path, we are heading for collapse in the first half of the 21st century. This book, published in the year 2022, reviews what has happened in the intervening time period. It asks three basic questions:
Le déploiement de nouvelles fréquences a été repoussé aux États-Unis sur fond de risques de perturbations pour le trafic aérien.
What could bring down the industrial civilization? Would it be global warming (fire) or resource depletion (ice)? At present, it may well be that depletion is hitting us faster. But, in the long run, global warming may hit us much harder. Maybe the fall of our civilization will be Fire AND ice.
Le gouvernement polonais vient d’autoriser la reprise des coupes forestières à Bialowieza, dans la dernière forêt primaire de plaine en Europe. De quoi raviver les craintes des écologistes, qui gardent en mémoire l’épisode de déforestation amorcé en 2016.
Freshwater is a fundamental resource in our world, even more than crude oil. Without freshwater, it would be impossible to maintain the current agricultural production that manages to feed nearly 8 billion human beings. Most of the world's agriculture, nowadays, is based on irrigation. It means that production depends on water that has been stored somewhere, naturally or artificially. And once you start depending on a limited stock of resources, you face a problem. Even renewable, if you exploit it faster than it renews itself, you will eventually run out of it. It is the phenomenon called "overexploitation"
Don't you stumble, sometimes, into something that seems to make a lot of sense, but you can't say exactly why? For a long time, I had in mind the idea that when things start going bad, they tend to go bad fast. We might call this tendency the "Seneca effect" or the "Seneca cliff," from Lucius Annaeus Seneca who wrote that "increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid."