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Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10–90% range: 23–71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stabili

Le Shift Project présente son rapport intermédiaire "Pour une agriculture bas carbone, résiliente et prospère"

A new record high, but is there light at the end of the tunnel?

Anthropogenic emissions drive global-scale warming yet the temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels is uncertain. Using 300 years of ocean mixed-layer temperature records preserved in sclerosponge carbonate skeletons, we demonstrate that industrial-era warming began in the mid-1860s, more than 80 years earlier than instrumental sea surface temperature records. The Sr/Ca palaeothermometer was calibrated against ‘modern’ (post-1963) highly correlated (R2 = 0.91) instrumental records of global sea surface temperatures, with the pre-industrial defined by nearly constant (<±0.1 °C) temperatures from 1700 to the early 1860s. Increasing ocean and land-air temperatures overlap until the late twentieth century, when the land began warming at nearly twice the rate of the surface oceans. Hotter land temperatures, together with the earlier onset of industrial-era warming, indicate that global warming was already 1.7 ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2020. Our result is 0.5 °C higher than IPCC estim

Financité ... éclairer le débat par des analyses chiffrées et documentées mais aussi le guider, en réaffirmant des principes non pas moraux mais juridiques fondamentaux, à commencer par les droits humains les plus élémentaires). Le présent document s’inscrit pleinement dans ce rôle de force de propositions démocratiques qui est le nôtre.

The State of the Cryosphere 2023 – Two Degrees is Too High report shows that all of the Earth’s frozen parts will experience irreversible damage at 2°C of global warming, with disastrous consequences for millions of people, societies, and nature. Confirming that just 2°C of global warming will trigger irreversible loss to Earth’s ice sheets, mountain glaciers and snow, sea ice, permafrost, and polar oceans, it updates the latest science and highlights the global impacts from cryosphere loss.

This Research Plan was prepared in response to a requirement in the joint explanatory statement accompanying Division B of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2022, directing the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), with support from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to provide a research plan for “solar and other rapid climate interventions.”

Terrestrial ecosystems have taken up about 32% of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the past six decades1. Large uncertainties in terrestrial carbon–climate feedbacks, however, make it difficult to predict how the land carbon sink will respond to future climate change2. Interannual variations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) are dominated by land–atmosphere carbon fluxes in the tropics, providing an opportunity to explore land carbon–climate interactions3–6. It is thought that variations in CGR are largely controlled by temperature7–10 but there is also evidence for a tight coupling between water availability and CGR11. Here, we use a record of global atmospheric CO2, terrestrial water storage and precipitation data to investigate changes in the interannual relationship between tropical land climate conditions and CGR under a changing climate. We find that the interannual relationship between tropical water availability and CGR became increasingly negative during 1989–2018 compared to 1960–1989

This paper catalogues current efforts to address climate change within multilateral economic and financial institutions and related organizations. It also proposes a minimum set of policy measures that need to be prioritized by such institutions to support climate change mitigation and adaptation. The proposals include expanding public climate finance via multilateral development banks, doing more to mobilize private investment, mainstreaming climate considerations across institutional operations, making climate disclosures mandatory, and addressing sovereign debt distress to unlock private climate finance.

Les douze leviers pour intervenir dans un système ont été proposés par la scientifique et analyste des systèmes américaine Donella Meadows au sujet des limites environnementales à la croissance économique.

En septembre 2022, Laurent Lievens annonçait dans une longue lettre son choix de quitter la Louvain School of Management (LSM), l’école de gestion rattachée à l’UCL.

Loss and damage from climate change is already costing vulnerable communities dearly. These communities have played almost no role in causing the climate crisis, yet they are now paying for it with damaged and destroyed homes and schools, lost crops and livelihoods, and the loss of loved ones.

The IPBES #PandemicsReport is one of the most scientifically robust examinations of the evidence and knowledge about links between pandemic risk and nature since the COVID-19 pandemic began - with 22 of the world's leading experts from fields as diverse as epidemiology, zoology, public health, disease ecology, comparative pathology, veterinary medicine, pharmacology, wildlife health, mathematical modelling, economics, law, and public policy as authors of the report. The expertise of the 22 authors was further augmented by contributions and knowledge resources from the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, and the World Health Organization - as well as a peer review process.

Enseignant dans une grande école d’Ingénieurs en Suisse, très engagé dans la sensibilisation des étudiant·e·s à la crise écologique et aux immenses défis du XXIème siècle, Dominique a également co-organisé – avec la Maison du Dessin de Presse à Morges – un événement de sensibilisation à l’urgence écologique à partir de dessins de presse du monde entier et de grands tableaux historiques co-réalisés avec son équipe pour présenter les Événements et catastrophes ; les livres clés, rapports et lois ; les sommets, réunions, conventions et manifestations ; et enfin les organisations engagées.

The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond.

La question sous-jacente des politiques de transport est celle de la mobilité et de l’accessibilité désirables pour nos sociétés et des moyens de les assurer de manière durable. La voiture a pris un rôle prépondérant dans nos pratiques de mobilité (tant « physiquement » que dans l’imaginaire collectif). Aujourd’hui plus que jamais, ce rôle doit être questionné. C’est pour aider à la réflexion qu’IEW a mis à jour son dossier « L’automobile en questions ».

Métaux rares, substances indispensables à la transition, exploitation zéro émission, techniques minières modernes, technologies intelligentes, impacts positifs sur la biodiversité, standards internationaux contraignants, nouvelles frontières extractives... Ces nouveaux concepts sont de plus en plus mis en avant tant dans l'espace public que dans les espaces plus spécialisés des géosciences et de l'industrie minérale. Pourtant sur le terrain, rien ne change.

As a leading climate scientist, Paola Arias doesn’t need to look far to see the world changing. Shifting rain patterns threaten water supplies in her home city of Medellín, Colombia, while rising sea levels endanger the country’s coastline. She isn’t confident that international leaders will slow global warming or that her own government can handle the expected fallout, such as mass migrations and civil unrest over rising inequality. With such an uncertain future, she thought hard several years ago about whether to have children.

This report introduces an analytical framework to better understand the drivers, triggers and impacts of internal displacement in the context of climate change.

Des pôles à l’équateur, de la Sibérie au Canada, le constat est là : la planète brûle, fond, le climat se délite. Retrouvez dans notre atlas du réchauffement climatique des cartes et des infographies, et toujours les reportages et les points de vue de la presse étrangère pour comprendre le processus. Et surtout pour agir.