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Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10–90% range: 23–71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stabili

Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves1,2, raising concerns about the future impacts of climate change and the associated socioeconomic costs3,4. Here we develop a disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological and hybrid input–output and computable general equilibrium global trade models to estimate the midcentury socioeconomic impacts of heat stress. We consider health costs related to heat exposure, the value of heat-induced labour productivity loss and indirect losses due to economic disruptions cascading through supply chains. Here we show that the global annual incremental gross domestic product loss increases exponentially from 0.03 ± 0.01 (SSP 245)–0.05 ± 0.03 (SSP 585) percentage points during 2030–2040 to 0.05 ± 0.01–0.15 ± 0.04 percentage points during 2050–2060. By 2060, the expected global economic losses reach a total of 0.6–4.6% with losses attributed to health loss (37–45%), labour productivity loss (18–37%) and i

A new record high, but is there light at the end of the tunnel?

Wind and solar reached a record 12% of global electricity in 2022, and power sector emissions may have peaked.

This study evaluates how Europe can fulfil its goal of “achieving resource security” and “reducing strategic dependencies” for its energy transition metals, through a demand, supply, and sustainability assessment of the Green Deal and its resource needs.

Energy return on investment (EROI) is a biophysical and ecological economics concept that is useful to think about how organisms, ecosystems and societies must obtain enough surplus energy returned from energy gathering activities to live, reproduce, and thrive. EROI can help us overcome the false dualism between nature and society. EROI is a useful metric for economics because it is based on immutable physical laws rather than sometimes arbitrary human preferences. It is essential for assessing useful power, energy trade-offs, efficiencies (and inefficiencies), resource depletion trends, resource quality, and surplus potentials of different fuels and technologies that power, or might power, our socio-economic systems. Apparent inconsistencies in the literature can generally be reduced or eliminated by paying careful attention and explicitly stating boundaries and definitions. We argue that proper use of EROI is critical to understand the interconnections among the environment, energy, and socio-economic deve

L'Allemagne s'est fixé l'objectif ambitieux d'atteindre la neutralité carbone d'ici à 2045, en misant essentiellement sur le développement des énergies renouvelables et des gains d'efficacité énergétique. Dans l'analyse ci-après (en anglais) publiée le 30 juin par l'Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Ralf Dickel(1) « montre pourquoi, pour l'Allemagne, une approche entièrement renouvelable et principalement électrique pour atteindre zéro émission nette d'ici 2045 ne fonctionnera pas, et ne permettra pas de maintenir un approvisionnement énergétique fiable ». Il souligne à ce titre le rôle essentiel du captage et de la séquestration du CO2 dans le cas allemand. L'auteur s'interroge en particulier sur les possibilités et infrastructures nécessaires pour exporter le CO2 capté sur le territoire allemand vers la Norvège.

En novembre 2020, la Commission européenne a présenté une stratégie visant à développer massivement l'éolien offshore dans l'UE, avec un objectif non contraignant de 300 GW cumulés au sein des différents États membres à l'horizon 2050 (et un objectif intermédiaire de 60 GW éoliens offshore en 2030)(1). En l'état des politiques actuelles et du cadre juridique, l'UE ne pourra toutefois porter la puissance installée potentielle de son parc éolien offshore qu'à 90 GW d'ici la moitié du XXIe siècle, selon les estimations de la Commission. Cette dernière réfléchit ainsi aux moyens de faciliter ce déploiement de l'éolien en mer, en « mettant davantage de pression sur les États membres », expliquent Elin Akinci et Siddarth Iyer dans l'analyse ci-après (en anglais) publiée le 9 juin par l'Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Les auteurs y évoquent « les défis politiques et réglementaires » auxquels est actuellement confrontée l'industrie éolienne offshore et les moyens pour les entreprises du secteur de sur

Metals will play a central role in successfully building Europe’s clean technology value chains and meeting the EU’s 2050 climate-neutrality goal. In the wake of supply disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s lack of resilience for its growing metals needs has become a strategic concern. This study evaluates how Europe can fulfil its goal of “achieving resource security” and “reducing strategic dependencies” for its energy transition metals, through a demand, supply, and sustainability assessment of the EU Green Deal and its resource needs . It concludes that Europe has a window of opportunity to lay the foundation for a higher level of strate- gic autonomy and sustainability for its strategic metals through optimised recycling, domestic value chain investment, and more active global sourcing. But firm action is needed soon to avoid bottlenecks for several materials that risk being in global short supply at the end of this decade.

The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond.

Meeting human needs at sustainable levels of energy use is fundamental for avoiding catastrophic climate change and securing the well-being of all people. In the current political-economic regime, no country does so. Here, we assess which socio-economic conditions might enable societies to satisfy human needs at low energy use, to reconcile human well-being with climate mitigation.

Humans have amazing strengths, but also significant weaknesses. Chief among them, perhaps, is our collective difficulty in grasping the mathematical consequences of exponential growth. Alternative energy technologies have trouble preserving expectations. Human psychology and political/economic institutions turn a technically difficult predicament into a nearly hopeless trap. We are lamentably ill-equipped to appreciate the abnormality of our time and assess a more accurate picture of what long-term “normal” must look like.

La thèse s’intitule « Les transports face au défi de la transition énergétique. Explorations entre passé et avenir, technologie et sobriété, accélération et ralentissement ». Elle a été soutenue le 23 novembre 2020 en visioconférence. En voici les principaux rendus :

A novel methodology is developed to dynamically assess the energy and material investments required over time to achieve the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources in the electricity sector. The obtained results indicate that a fast transition achieving a 100% renewable electric system globally by 2060 consistent with the Green Growth narrative could decrease the EROI of the energy system from current ~12:1 to ~3:1 by the mid-century, stabilizing thereafter at ~5:1. These EROI levels are well below the thresholds identified in the literature required to sustain industrial complex societies. Moreover, this transition could drive a substantial re-materialization of the economy, exacerbating risk availability in the future for some minerals. Hence, the results obtained put into question the consistence and viability of the Green Growth narrative.

THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY CHARTER CONSOLIDATED ENERGY CHARTER TREATY

xcept for specialized resource economics models, economics pays little attention to the role of energy in growth. This paper highlights basic difficulties behind the mainstream analytical arguments for this neglect, and provides an empirical reassessment of this role. We use an error correction model in order to estimate the long-run dependency ratio of output with respect to primary energy use in 33 countries between 1970 and 2011