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Projections of near-term climate change are a potential research tool. However, for that tool to be most useful, the physical basis for a prediction must be made clear. The basis for our projection of record 2026 global temperature is high climate sensitivity, with its implication that aerosol cooling was still increasing during the period 1970-2005. One consequence, global sea surface warming, already has important effects. Causes of climate change must be understood for policy purposes. Figures in this post and our recent papers are continually updated on our website.[1] We are also now on Substack[2].
And why when we do see it, we fail to act.
Weather cycle threatens harvests worldwide, adding to inflation already fuelled by the Iran war
Members of parliament have demanded full publication of an explosive report by the UK’s spy leaders that found the collapse of ecosystems overseas would have catastrophic consequences for the UK’s national security, warning that the UK has “no future” if the findings are not urgently acted on.
Daily Sea Surface Temperature
A vast system of Atlantic currents that delivers warmth to northern Europe is at risk of collapse, according to a growing body of research. The latest study to warn of its demise finds there is at least a 10 percent chance that a collapse may already be “locked in.”
The fluoropolymer industry is at it again. The industry’s most notable products are non-stick industrial coatings such as Teflon, made using forever chemicals (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances: PFAS). But as the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) starts to wind up its second public consultation on the proposed EU PFAS ban, the fluoropolymer industry is once again mobilising its customers to criticise alternatives to their products.
New research shows major lenders are accelerating their investment in Big Oil as the industry turns toward plastics and petrochemicals.
Closed-door talks over the World Bank’s climate agenda have stalled, as the US pushes to scrap green targets and expand support for fossil fuels
European scientists warn of consequences for weather patterns, the global climate and marine life
For most of the modern era, capitalism justified itself through growth. Industrial societies converted vast amounts of fossil energy into production, wealth, and rising living standards. Roads, bridges, power grids, schools, and public institutions expanded alongside the economy. Inequality and exploitation remained deeply embedded in the system, but they were partly obscured by a broader story of material progress.
Drug-resistant bacteria are no longer confined to hospital settings but are spreading into communities in every country
The climate and nature crisis threatens all aspects of British life, from national security to the food supply. Despite the scale of the risks now facing the UK, there has been no comprehensive national emergency briefing delivered to the public by the Government.
Climate scientists warn of unprecedented Antarctic heatwave, with temperatures 20C above normal. Loss of sea ice threatens marine life and penguins.
Study also finds high humidity means people in hundreds of cities are enduring their worst ever heat stress
A new report has uncovered the many risks of participating in climate and environmental protests across the world – and how more countries are criminalising and repressing this activity in a bid to keep it in check.
Some Western nations are using old legislation or enacting harsh new laws to restrict the right to peaceful protest and impose disproportionate penalties, a report warns. Governments in democratic countries in Europe and the global north are using overly punitive measures to crack down on environmental activists, according to a new report.
Environmental defenders across Europe, South Caucasus and Central Asia are increasingly facing legal pressure, intimidation and attempts to restrict their work. Non-governmental organisations warn about a steady rise in SLAPP lawsuits (1), defamation cases, claims for compensation for alleged damages and other tactics intended to discourage public scrutiny of industrial, mining and development projects with a negative impact on environment. Civic oversight is becoming more difficult, especially for those who challenge powerful economic or political interests.
Yet, as the climate crisis worsens, the civic space for climate protests is shrinking. Instead of focusing on meeting their commitments to reduce climate change, governments are threatening environmental protectors—from Indigenous communities defending their ancestral lands to young activists protesting the expansion of fossil fuels—with intimidation, legal harassment, and at times deadly violence. New forms of attacks are emerging, like the use of counterterrorism laws against climate activists, who are vilified in public and political discourse. And governments have been ratcheting-up their repression of such protests.
The criminalization and repression of climate and environmental activists have intensified globally in the past few years.1 These are forms of backlash against often impactful social movements. The repressive wave has sparked major concerns in many quarters, with the UN secretary general, the UN special rapporteur on environmental defenders, and many nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), politicians, and social movements speaking out against it.2 In this article I will draw on findings from a University of Bristol project that I led on this topic.3 Driven by a combination of state and corporate actors, the repression of climate and environmental protest is a truly worldwide phenomenon that takes place across the Global North and South.
