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Darrell Kaufman, Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, USA, Nicholas McKay, Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, USA, Cody Routson, Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, USA, Michael Erb, Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, School of Earth and Sustainability, Flagstaff, USA, Christoph Dätwyler, University of Bern, Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland, Philipp S. Sommer, University of Lausanne, Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Institute of Earth Surface Dy
An extensive new multi-proxy database of paleo-temperature time series (Temperature 12k) enables a more robust analysis of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and associated uncertainties than was previously available. We applied five different statistical methods to reconstruct the GMST of the past 12,000 years (Holocene). Each method used different approaches to averaging the globally distributed time series and to characterizing various sources of uncertainty, including proxy temperature, chronology and methodological choices. The results were aggregated to generate a multi-method ensemble of plausible GMST and latitudinal-zone temperature reconstructions with a realistic range of uncertainties. The warmest 200-year-long interval took place around 6500 years ago when GMST was 0.7 °C (0.3, 1.8) warmer than the 19th Century (median, 5th, 95th percentiles). Following the Holocene global thermal maximum, GMST cooled at an average rate −0.08 °C per 1000 years (−0.24, −0.05). The multi-method ensembles and th
