Le secteur des assurances fait face à des défis croissants liés aux risques climatiques. Les données assurantielles des dernières décennies témoignent d’une aggravation des événements climatiques, tels que les tempêtes, les inondations et les sécheresses. Cette situation soulève plusieurs questions majeures pour le secteur. La soutenabilité financière : L’augmentation des coûts des sinistres liés aux risques climatiques met en question la viabilité à long terme du régime d’indemnisation des catastrophes naturelles. L’assurabilité des risques : Certains assureurs sont tentés de se désengager des zones les plus à risques. Enfin L’adaptation des modèles d’évaluation : Les assureurs doivent revoir leurs stratégies et leurs modèles d’évaluation des risques pour mieux intégrer et gérer les risques climatiques.
Assurances et risques climatiques
... An “acid” test of our interpretation will be provided by the 2025 global temperature: unlike the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Ninos, which were followed by global cooling of more than 0.3°C and 0.2°C, respectively, we expect global temperature in 2025 to remain near or above the 1.5°C level. Indeed, the 2025 might even set a new record despite the present weak La Nina. There are two independent reasons. First, the “new” climate forcing due to reduction of sulfate aerosols over the ocean remains in place, and, second, high climate sensitivity (~4.5°C for doubled CO2) implies that the warming from recently added forcings is still growing significantly.
Breathless reporting on when the present global heat anomaly will begin to fall is understandable, given heat suffering around the world. However, fundamental issues are in question and a reflection on time scales is in order, for the sake of understanding ongoing climate change and actions that need to be taken.
Global temperature (12-month mean) is still rising at 1.56°C relative to 1880-1920 in the GISS analysis through April (Fig. 1). [Robert Rohde reports that it is 1.65°C relative to 1850-1900 in the BerkeleyEarth analysis.[3]] Global temperature is likely to continue to rise a bit for at least a month, peak this summer, and then decline as the El Nino fades toward La Nina. Acceleration of global warming is now hard to deny. The GISS 12-month temperature is now 0.36°C above the 0.18°C/decade trend line, which is 3.6 times the standard deviation (0.1°C). Confidence in global warming acceleration thus exceeds 99%, but we need to see how far temperature falls with the next La Nina before evaluating the post-2010 global warming rate.