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Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10–90% range: 23–71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stabili
Huge patches of forest in Tasmania have rapidly turned brown over recent months, with many trees dying after a dry summer. As climate change causes hotter and drier weather, can we expect more tree deaths in the future?
Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons1–6. Here we use recent empirical findings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation, including daily variability and extremes7,8. Using an empirical approach that provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11–29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly through changes in average tempe
This report written by the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with Oliver Wyman, provides an in-depth economic analysis of how climate change will reshape health landscapes over the next two decades. It highlights increased risks from new pathogens, pollution and extreme weather events and shows how these will exacerbate current health inequities, disproportionately impacting the most vulnerable populations.
As space travel and lunar exploration becomes a near-future reality, we should consider the impact of human activities on the lunar environment.
A crucial system of ocean currents may already be on course to collapse, according to a new report, with alarming implications for sea level rise and global weather — leading temperatures to plunge dramatically in some regions and rise in others. Using exceptionally complex and expensive computing systems, scientists found a new way to detect an early warning signal for the collapse of these currents, according to the study published Friday in the journal Science Advances. And as the planet warms, there are already indications it is heading in this direction.
An independent think tank producing data-driven analysis on how business and finance are impacting the climate crisis
I'm an independent healthcare analyst with more than 24 years of experience analyzing healthcare and pharmaceuticals. Specifically, I analyze the value (costs and benefits) of biologics and pharmaceuticals, patient access to prescription drugs, the regulatory framework for drug development and reimbursement, and ethics with respect to the distribution of healthcare resources. I have approximately 110 publications in peer-reviewed journals, in addition to hundreds of articles in newspapers and periodicals. I have also presented my work at numerous trade, industry, and academic conferences. From 1999 to 2017 I was a research associate professor at the Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development. Prior to my Tufts appointment, I was a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Pennsylvania, and I completed my PhD in economics at the University of Amsterdam. Before pursuing my PhD I was a management consultant at Accenture in The Hague, Netherlands. Currently, and for the past 6 years, I work on a freelance ba
As we mark 100 days until the COP28 UN climate summit, the urgency of addressing the climate crisis has never been more palpable. Global failures to mitigate emissions and adapt to the impacts continue to wreak havoc on the planet, and we’re seeing this in a range of ways. Unprecedented extreme weather events have occurred with frightening regularity in 2023. In March, over 500 people lost their lives when Cyclone Freddy struck Malawi. Last month, flooding in the Philippines caused by Typhoons Doksuri and Khanun displaced more than 300,000 people, and the recent wildfires that ravaged Hawaii – in part exacerbated by climate change – continue to make for distressing headlines. This list is likely to become even longer by the end of the year, when COP28 gets underway in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Heat and cold are now established health risk factors, with several studies reporting important mortality effects in populations around the world.1, 2, 3 The associated health burden is expected to increase with climate change, especially under the most extreme scenarios of global warming.4, 5 However, robust estimates of excess mortality in the current and future periods are still challenging to obtain due to the numerous factors influencing vulnerability to heat and cold, including climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic conditions.6 These factors represent the main drivers of variation in mortality risks, which have been shown to differ geographically and across age groups.
Tiny plastic particles can travel worldwide, ending up in urban, rural, and remote areas. They take an even faster transport pathway than oceanic currents: the atmosphere.
We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pretrained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15%
A comprehensive new study led by Professor Gwen Robbins Schug at UNC Greensboro traces the impact of rapid climate change events on humans over the past 5,000 years and offers lessons for today's policymakers. The meta-analysis of approximately a decade's worth of bioarchaeology data was published today as a Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences perspective article by a team of 25 authors representing 21 universities.
This Southern Ocean warming and its associated impacts are effectively irreversible on human time scales, because it takes millennia for heat trapped deep in the ocean to be released back into the atmosphere. This means changes happening now will be felt for generations to come – and those changes are only set to get worse, unless we can stop carbon dioxide emissions and achieve net zero.
Urgenda has become synonymous with a particular kind of lawsuit brought against a state for inaction on climate change. What impact it has had both in the Netherlands and internationally?
The goal of our project is to compile in a systematic manner the evidence in support of transmittable diseases being aggravated by climate hazards. To ensure a systematic review, we scrutinized the first 200 references in Google Scholar that resulted from using as keywords each possible combination of ten climate hazards (i.e., warming, heatwaves, precipitation, floods, drought, fires, sea level, storms, natural cover change, ocean climate change) and “human diseases”. We selected papers that reported cases examples of diseases regardless of whether impacts were positive or negative. Selected papers were read and from them extracted any mention to cases examples ofdiseasesaggravated by climate hazards.
Carte interactive
Climate scientists are clear that it’s already too late to go back to the kind of weather we used to have, but can we stop things from getting a whole lot worse? Professor Michael E Mann – from Penn State university in the United States – and author of ‘The New Climate War’ explains the radical change needed to avert catastrophic temperature rises.
Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and the harms experienced on the ground by people, property, and nature. It therefore allows the disentangling of different drivers of extreme weather from human-induced climate change and hence provides valuable information to adapt to climate change and to assess loss and damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out of reach. This is due to limitations in attribution science, including the capacity for studying different types of events, as well as the geographical heterogeneity of both climate and impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge of the influences of climate change on five different extreme weather hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), the impacts of recent extreme weather events of each type, and thus the degree to which various impacts are attributable to climate change.
Deaths from exposure to emissions from vehicles, smoke stacks and wildfires have increased by more than 50 percent this century, with poorer countries bearing the brunt of the impacts.
Researchers have been able to cut their carbon footprint by jetting off to fewer international conferences, but physicists working on large-scale experiments may also have to consider the significant environmental impact of the computer power they require. Michael Allen investigates
The Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human communities at global and regional levels. It also reviews vulnerabilities and the capacities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt to climate change.
On 28 February, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations body solely dedicated to looking at the science behind climate change, will release a major report on the impacts of the climate crisis and why it is imperative that we act now to address the growing risks. The report, which focuses on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, is expected to detail how climate impacts are already wreaking havoc in every part of the world and how, without much bolder action, more lives will be lost and more livelihoods destroyed. The report will look at challenges and solutions for addressing these risks and minimizing vulnerability unique to the world’s regions, cities and other habitats.
Approval of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability in a virtual session (14-25 Feb). Press conference (virtual) at 10:00 a.m. CET (Berlin) on Monday, 28 February 2022 – 04.00 EDT (New York), 09:00 GMT (London), 12:00 EAT (Nairobi), 16:00 ICT (Bangkok) Information about media registration is available here. The deadline for registration is Friday, 18 February 2022.
It may take bees multiple generations to recover from being exposed to insecticides even just once, research shows. A new research, published in PNAS, shows that even a single exposure to insecticides in a bee’s first year of life affects offspring production, and since the effects of the pesticides are cumulative, this results in an overall decrease in population
And yet, their leaders continue to avoid making strong commitments on climate action. Heatwaves, droughts, fires and floods will increase in severity and frequency, creating risk and instability for today’s G20 growth models. Most G20 countries share one trait: long and densely populated coastlines, replete with vital infrastructure that will, over time, stand in the way of dangerous turbulence.
Technologies for the removal of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere (direct air capture, or DAC for short) are already in use, but neither their actual benefits for climate protection nor their other environmental impact have yet to be investigated.
Human rights council also appoints special rapporteur to monitor impact of climate crisis on rights
The world is dangerously off track to meet the Paris Agreement goals. The risks are compounding. Without immediate action the impacts will be devastating in the coming decades.
