No collapswashing

Un article de recherche du FMI remet en cause les fondements mêmes de la logique de transition écologique. Certes, les énergies propres progressent, mais sans qu’elles se substituent aux hydrocarbures, en raison d’une constante augmentation de la consommation énergétique. La démonstration des auteurs pulvérise la logique à l’œuvre depuis trois décennies.

In België zijn dit jaar al 117 natuurbranden geteld, al 2 meer dan in heel 2025. Vooral de provincie Limburg wordt zwaar getroffen. Dat blijkt uit cijfers van de UGent: "De impact van klimaatverandering beperkt zich niet tot de landen rond de Middellandse Zee. Ook in België stijgt het risico", waarschuwen de onderzoekers.

Global energy and materials are essential to the functioning of the economy and have significant implications for macroeconomics and the environment. At the same time, the world is not on track to meet Paris Agreement goals. This paper documents two stylized facts that connect these observations. First, the world economy is characterized by large embedded emissions and materials: different energies and materials are deeply entwined and interdependent. This has historically led to additive – rather than substitution – dynamics in energy and materials on a global scale. Second, historically there has been a strong positive correlation between efficiency in resource use and total resource use at a global scale. We synthesize these observations by introducing the Generalized Jevons Paradox (GJP). We argue that the GJP reflects the direct and indirect energy/material demand effects of long-term energy and material interdependencies, themselves shaped by market and geoeconomic power, trade arrangements, and financi

Na twintig jaar komt een einde aan het moratorium op soja uit het Amazonegebied, onder druk door wetgeving, de politiek en juridische stappen van de Braziliaanse agro-industrie. Daarmee dreigt jarenlange vooruitgang in de strijd tegen ontbossing tenietgedaan te worden, stelt een artikel in Science, en dat kan leiden tot ten minste 1,4 miljoen hectare extra ontbossing.

Exxon warns oil inventories will hit dangerously low levels in weeks, forcing prices to shoot higher. […]

Brutal El Nino, drought, war threatens food supply

We infer that 2026 is likely to be the warmest year in the period of instrumental data, based on a physics-based approach with identifiable assumptions. This approach may help us learn something in 2026 about the mechanisms of climate change. The figures in this post and our other current papers will be continually updated on our website,2 when they remain relevant. We are also now on Substack3.

Même sans grande marche pour le climat, même en période d’instabilité politique et militaire, le Belge garde une attention particulière aux problèmes climatiques. C’est ce qui ressort de la vaste enquête menée par le SPF Santé publique, enquête menée tous les quatre ans depuis 2005. Les gestes quotidiens d’économie d’énergie ou de tri des déchets sont rentrés dans les mœurs, mais les citoyens estiment que les autorités belges et européennes doivent maintenir ou accélérer la transition climatique. C’est un peu moins le cas quand on s’attaque à leur portefeuille.

De uitstap uit fossiele brandstoffen vergt meer dan technische klimaatmaatregelen. Op een conferentie in Colombia staat de vraag centraal of staten bereid zijn de macht van multinationals in te perken en de energietransitie te verankeren in mensenrechten.

Around 153 BCE, Cato the Elder, one of Rome’s most prominent senators, began ending every single one of his speeches with the same words: “Carthago delenda est”, or “Carthage must be destroyed”.

À l’occasion de la journée de la terre, l’Agence Média Palestine s’est entretenue avec William Mina, médiateur et animateur de collectifs auprès d’acteurs de l’économie sociale et solidaire, aussi impliqué dans des mouvements d’écologie politique et de solidarité avec la Palestine et le Liban.

We can’t know how long the war in the Middle East will last. Nor can we know who will “win” it, and in which terms. What we know is that the destruction already wreaked on things and people is immense, and it keeps escalating. The longer the war, the bleaker their perspectives in a region already plagued by all sorts of problems, including drought, soil degradation, ecosystem damage, scarce agricultural resources, declining fertility rates, and more.

Climate change is causing measurable harm globally1,2. Political and legal efforts seek to link these damages with specific emissions, including in discussions of loss and damage (L&D)3,4; however, no quantitative definition of L&D exists5,6, nor is there a framework to link past and future emissions from specific sources to monetized, location-specific damages. Here we develop such a framework, which is integrated with recent efforts to estimate the social cost of carbon7. Using empirical estimates of the non-linear relationship between temperature and aggregate economic output, we show that future damages from past emissions—one component of L&D—are at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions. For instance, one tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 caused US$180 in discounted global damages by 2020 ($40–530) and will cause an additional $1,840 through 2100 ($500–5,700). Thus, settling debts for past damages will not settle debts for past emissions. In other illustrative esti

Drie dagen lang was er in Brussel een grote wapenbeurs waar bezoekers volgens de organisatie zelf “een inspirerende uitstap” konden ervaren. Stop Militarisering organiseerde in hetzelfde weekend een conferentie om te wijzen op de destructieve wapenwedloop waar België zich in mengt. DeWereldMorgen was erbij.

Paul R. Ehrlich will be remembered as a scientist whose books about population and threats to the environment shaped the idea of limited growth in the modern era.

El Niño could fuel extreme weather and raise temperatures to record highs this year, but how sure can we be that it will return?

The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but we suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing, not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.

Na drie weken van keiharde repressie tellen de Iraanse demonstranten hun doden. Het exacte aantal is moeilijk na te gaan, maar getuigenissen en beelden van overvolle mortuaria, massagraven en doelgerichte moorden suggereren een duizelingwekkende dodentol. MO* sprak met mensen in Iran en in de diaspora om de ware omvang van de staatsterreur van de ayatollahs in kaart te brengen.

Exclusive: Ben Goldsmith will work on issues including fishing and green belt preservation to attract green Tories

New year, new acronym! The newly established Intergovernmental Science-Policy Panel on Chemicals, Waste and Pollution (ISP-CWP) will meet in its first Plenary session from February 2-6 in Geneva, Switzerland. The Panel is designed to provide scientific assessments on chemicals, waste, and pollution to inform policymakers at national, regional, and international levels.

Il y a quelques années, le gouvernement colombien avait tourné le dos à l’utilisation massive de l’herbicide pour détruire les cultures illégales des trafiquants de drogue. Depuis, il a changé d’avis : les épandages reprennent en ce mois de janvier, selon la volonté du président étasunien.

De eerste koude nachten zijn gevallen. In sommige straten worden dekens uitgedeeld aan mensen die nergens terechtkunnen, terwijl achter de ramen van regeringsgebouwen het licht nog brandt. Binnen wordt onderhandeld over cijfers, budgetten en opvangcapaciteit, maar zelden gaat het over de mensen zelf, vindt de Syrische Belg en opiniemaker Alaa Jbour.

Delegates made minimal headway on timetable for replacing oil and gas or on firm commitments to reducing carbon emissions

Watchdog’s flagship report says rise in low-carbon electricity will make transition ‘inevitable’, despite Trump’s calls to carry on drilling

Decision by international court of justice hailed as a gamechanger for climate justice and accountability

We already have plenty of evidence of what happens when things better left to governments — which in this case might decide to never flip the switch at all — are ceded to private industry.

The uniquely vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 5 meters. But when that will happen — and how fast — is anything but settled.

Unless global heating is reduced to 1.2C ‘as fast as possible’, warm water coral reefs will not remain ‘at any meaningful scale’, a report by 160 scientists from 23 countries warns

Four Prime Ministers in twelve months. Social protests in the streets. Extreme parties rising in the polls. President Macron, once seen as Europe's great reformer, seems politically finished. But what if France's paralysis is not an exception - what if it shows Europe's future?

Predictably, soon, most young people will reject extremist views. This will be none too soon because it is the essential step leading to global political leadership that appreciates the threat posed by climate’s delayed response to human-made changes of Earth’s atmosphere. Then the annual fraud of goals for future “net zero” emissions announced at United Nations COP (Conference of Parties) meetings might be replaced by realistic climate policies. It is important, by that time, that we have better knowledge of the degree and rate at which human-made forcing of the climate system must be decreased to avoid irreversible, unacceptable consequences.

The world will warm more than expected due to future changes in ozone, which protects the Earth from harmful sun rays but also traps heat as it is a greenhouse gas. While banning ozone-destroying gases such as CFCs has helped the ozone layer to recover, when combined with increased air pollution the impact of ozone could warm the planet 40% more than originally thought.

In an analysis of the best available Earth systems models, Northeastern researchers found that by the turn of the next century, 850 million people will feel the effects of declining runoff from the world's major rivers.

The Environmental Protection Agency said on Friday that it would eliminate its scientific research arm and begin firing hundreds of chemists, biologists, toxicologists and other scientists, after denying for months that it intended to do so. The move underscores how the Trump administration is forging ahead with efforts to slash the federal work force and dismantle federal agencies after the Supreme Court allowed these plans to proceed while legal challenges unfold. Government scientists have been particular targets of the administration’s large-scale layoffs.

Au moment où le continent fait face à des températures extrêmes, la Commission européenne a entrepris d’affaiblir plusieurs politiques écologiques majeures, sous la pression conjointe des Etats membres, de la droite et de l’extrême droite.

Forever chemicals have polluted the water supply of 60,000 people, threatening human health, wildlife and the wider ecosystem. But activists say this is just the tip of the Pfas iceberg

Een rechtvaardig grondstoffenbeleid is een voorwaarde voor duurzame vrede in Congo, weet Wies Willems die als expert natuurlijke rijkdommen werkt voor Broederlijk Delen. Ook de EU moet daarin haar verantwoordelijkheid opnemen, benadrukt hij.

Identifying the socio-economic drivers behind greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to design mitigation policies. Existing studies predominantly analyze short-term CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, neglecting long-term trends and other GHGs. We examine the drivers of all greenhouse gas emissions between 1820–2050 globally and regionally. The Industrial Revolution triggered sustained emission growth worldwide—initially through fossil fuel use in industrialized economies but also as a result of agricultural expansion and deforestation. Globally, technological innovation and energy mix changes prevented 31 (17–42) Gt CO2e emissions over two centuries. Yet these gains were dwarfed by 81 (64–97) Gt CO2e resulting from economic expansion, with regional drivers diverging sharply: population growth dominated in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while rising affluence was the main driver of emissions elsewhere. Meeting climate targets now requires the carbon intensity of GDP to decline 3 times faster than the global

Back in 2018, Yale economist William Nordhaus won the Nobel Prize for his work on his Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model. The idea was to set up a picture of the global economy, add on some estimates of the economic costs of warming with a “damage function,” plus estimates of what climate policy would cost, and all adjusted with a discount term to account for how people value current production more than future production (according to economists, at least). That way you can calculate an “optimal” climate policy in the form of a carbon tax that would precisely compensate for warming damages without burdening the economy too much.

I am writing this message to the millions of people who have been involved in the climate movement over the past several years. This movement has been an incredible force, thanks to your courage, passion and commitment. It has created a new public consciousness and a powerful sense of popular will. These are major achievements. And yet it is clear that we have now reached an impasse and a new path is needed.

The Ocean is essential to life on Earth, regulates the climate, supports rich biodiversity, sustains livelihoods, and inspires cultures and societies. However, unregulated human impacts are putting the Ocean and its ability to contribute to humanity at risk. The Starfish Barometer is a new initiative launched on World Ocean Day (8 June 2025) to provide a concise, science-based annual overview of the multiple dimensions of the Ocean through the lens of its interdependence with humanity. Each year, the Starfish Barometer will present a carefully curated selection of Ocean-related developments, chosen for their global significance and grounded in the most up-to-date scientific evidence, intended for a broad non-specialist audience. Rather than offering an exhaustive review, it will spotlight key aspects, robust, evidence-based, and reflective of major developments of the year. The Starfish Barometer emphasizes the two-way relationship between humanity and the Ocean: we impact its future, and it shapes ours. Its