Sismique

Earth’s climate system is moving deeper into uncharted territory. We present the 2026 update of planetary vital signs that track the state of Earth’s climate system, alongside indicators of the human activities driving ongoing change. Of 16 climate-related indicators, seven are currently at record extremes. Several indicators also show evidence of accelerating trends or abrupt shifts, raising concerns about increasing climate instability, interacting feedbacks, and the growing risk of crossing critical tipping points. Human activities, particularly fossil fuel combustion, remain the dominant drivers of these changes. Despite the worsening trends, encouraging signs of societal changes are emerging, including the rapid expansion of renewable electricity and battery storage, although progress remains far below the scale and speed needed to stabilize Earth’s climate system. Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, effective adaptation, ecosystem protection, and transformative societal change remain essential

Let’s be clear: the risk to humanity is unprecedented. Without an urgent public debate and robust use of international law, we will lose control of the future

Nous vivons une époque étrange. Jamais l’humanité n’a disposé d’autant de connaissances, de technologies, de capacités de calcul et de moyens d’action sur le monde. Et pourtant, rarement avons-nous semblé aussi démunis lorsqu’il s’agit de décider collectivement où nous voulons aller.

Si notre pays est capable de mobiliser des ressources considérables contre le RISQUE de guerre, il doit être en mesure d’appréhender la CERTITUDE du dérèglement climatique et d’investir massivement dans la transition. Les contraintes de l’économie sont essentielles, mais celles du climat sont devenues vitales. Il appartient à la puissance publique et à tous nos dirigeants de les assumer toutes de front, sans concession.

Climate models simulate a wide range of 21st century warming for a given forcing scenario. Constraining this uncertainty is a central challenge in climate science because of its implications for climate policy and adaptation. The transient climate response (TCR) is a key idealized metric used to quantify future warming in response to an exponentially increasing CO2 concentration. Climate models span a range of 1.3–3 K for TCR. In attempts to constrain this range, emergent constraints on TCR based on historical temperature trends consistently pointed toward TCR values at the lower end of the range of models. However, recent evidence from trends in the short-wave and long-wave components of Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) at the top-of-atmosphere suggests that models with higher TCR lie closer to the observed EEI trends. Here, we reconcile this discrepancy and provide a revised range for TCR of 1.9–2.6 K. Using a statistical variability-filtering approach, we show that previous temperature-based constraints wer

Le président russe Vladimir Poutine pourrait tenter, dans les années à venir, de tester la détermination de l'alliance militaire en lançant une attaque de faible ampleur contre un pays membre de l'OTAN. C'est ce qu'indiquent de nouveaux rapports des services de renseignement américains, rapporte le Wall Street Journal.

Global energy and materials are essential to the functioning of the economy and have significant implications for macroeconomics and the environment. At the same time, the world is not on track to meet Paris Agreement goals. This paper documents two stylized facts that connect these observations. First, the world economy is characterized by large embedded emissions and materials: different energies and materials are deeply entwined and interdependent. This has historically led to additive – rather than substitution – dynamics in energy and materials on a global scale. Second, historically there has been a strong positive correlation between efficiency in resource use and total resource use at a global scale. We synthesize these observations by introducing the Generalized Jevons Paradox (GJP). We argue that the GJP reflects the direct and indirect energy/material demand effects of long-term energy and material interdependencies, themselves shaped by market and geoeconomic power, trade arrangements, and financi

The concepts of Green Growth and Degrowth represent two major narratives in the public and academic debate on socio-ecological transformation. . . Using a comparative analysis of the two research fields, we confirm several findings from previous reviews, including that Green Growth research is highly policy oriented, focuses on practical implementation and builds on empirical research methods, while Degrowth research is highly theory-driven, focuses on the analysis of complex human-nature interrelationships and builds on a sound theoretical and conceptual foundation. Our analysis further reveals that Green Growth and Degrowth are two rather isolated fields of research with little exchange and mutual reference on related topics. However, the topic of social change and transition represents an intersecting and promising future research area. . . .

Members of parliament have demanded full publication of an explosive report by the UK’s spy leaders that found the collapse of ecosystems overseas would have catastrophic consequences for the UK’s national security, warning that the UK has “no future” if the findings are not urgently acted on.

La Conférence interministérielle (CIM) Santé, réunie ce mercredi, "tire les leçons" de la dernière vague de chaleur qu’a connue la Belgique et propose de nouvelles mesures prioritaires pour mieux affronter les futurs épisodes de ce type. L’instance qui rassemble les différents ministres de la Santé l’a annoncé mercredi dans un communiqué.