Veille 2.1

Jumping into the future head first, blindfolded, handcuffed, and in darkness

In a previous post, I defined this graph as “the most amazing graph of the 21st century.” It shows how the US oil production restarted growing in 2010, picking up speed and surpassing the historical record of the “Hubbert Peak,” which took place in 1970. It overcame the dip caused by the Covid pandemic and, two years after my first post on this subject, it keeps growing.

You would think that we have more than sufficient troubles caused by global warming, pollution, resource depletion, biodiversity loss, ecosystem disruption and a few more. But there is a problem that’s not directly related to the natural world, but by a purely human construction: the financial market. Here is a discussion by Ian Schindler — maître de conference émérite (emeritus professor of mathematics) at the University of Toulouse 1, France, who proposes that we are close to a financial collapse.

A post for the anniversary of the execution of Sophie Scholl by the German Nazis in 1943

Hérauts de la colère agricole européenne, les paysans polonais mobilisés depuis le printemps 2023, multiplient les blocages à la frontière pour s’opposer à la surpression des droits de douane sur les produits ukrainiens.

The Goddess is said to be benevolent and merciful, but she may get angry and become cruel and ruthless. We are used to discussing major events that may destroy civilization, or even the whole humankind. Most are related to global warming: tipping points, “hothouse Earth,” famines, tsunamis, and all the rest. Then, there are other human-made disasters, including the nuclear holocaust and homemade exterminations that can be carried out with simple tools such as machetes. Recently, it became fashionable to cite artificial intelligence as a threat to human beings.

The new version of the “Seneca Effect” blog on Substack is doing reasonably well, so I thought it was time to prepare a page that explains what the Seneca Effect is and what it can teach us. (image by Dall-E) During the 1st Century AD, the Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca observed the start of the disintegration of the Roman Empire. It was a process that would take a few more centuries to complete, but that was already evident to those who were willing to look beyond the surface of the still powerful Empire.

Clément Sénéchal, expert des enjeux climatiques et ancien porte-parole chez Greenpeace, fustige le manque d’ambition des résultats de l’accord de la COP 28 à Dubaï.

La plainte cible les liens entre le papetier canadien et le « destructeur de forêts » APP, documentés au printemps par une enquête du « Monde » et de plusieurs médias internationaux.

« Fossil Finance » (1/2). Les banques ont aidé l’industrie fossile à trouver plus de 1 000 milliards d’euros de financements depuis 2016 sur le marché obligataire. Les établissements français sont impliqués dans une grande partie de ces opérations.

Pourquoi y a-t-il moins de neige ? Les animaux vont-ils disparaître ? A quoi les arbres servent-ils ? Découvrez nos fiches synthétiques, illustrées et téléchargeables pour expliquer le réchauffement et ses conséquences concrètes.

La loi demande depuis dix ans aux grandes entreprises de chiffrer leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre, mais la majorité des acteurs concernés ne la respectent pas.

Il est possible, au moins en partie, de jauger la crédibilité environnementale d’un placement sans être ingénieur financier.

Charbon, pétrole, gaz, aviation… Le contenu des placements censés être les plus écologiques est loin des promesses de façade, révèle une vaste enquête européenne dont « Le Monde » est partenaire.

Years ago, James Schlesinger noted that human beings have only two operational modes: complacency and panic. It is an observation that rings true and that we can generalize in terms of groups: some humans are catastrophists, and some are cornucopians. I tend to side with the catastrophists, to the point that I created the term "Seneca Effect" or "Seneca Cliff" to define the rapid decline that comes after that growth stops. Indeed, catastrophes are a common occurrence in human history, but it is also true that sometimes (rarely) a catastrophic decline can be reversed: I termed this effect the "Seneca Rebound."