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We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and how they are altered by including the additional carbon emissions that could arise from tipping points within the Earth's carbon cycle. The crossing of a climate tipping point at a threshold level of global mean surface temperature (threshold temperature) would commit the affected subsystem of the Earth to abrupt and largely irreversible changes with negative impacts on human well-being. However, it remains unclear which tipping points would be triggered under the different SSPs due to uncertainties in the climate sensitivity to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the threshold temperatures and timescales of climate tipping points, and the response of tipping points within the Earth's carbon cycle to global warming. We include those uncertainties in our analysis to derive probabilities of triggering for 16 previously identified climate tipping points within the Earth system.

Les sols constituent le socle qui soutient tout l’édifice des écosystèmes terrestres. Loin de n’être que des supports, ce sont en réalité des écosystèmes en trois dimensions, des milieux et non pas des surfaces, qui sont eux-mêmes vivants et remplissent une série de fonctions écologiques cruciales pour la vie terrestre et donc pour les sociétés humaines.

Atrazine is an herbicide widely used on plantations worldwide. Experimental studies suggest that the herbicide impairs male reproductive function in mammals. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the impact of atrazine exposure on the levels of hormones from the hypothalamic-pituitary-testicular axis using murine as the animal model. After an extensive literature search, we selected 25 articles for the systematic review.

Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements.

Over the past 50 years, humans have extracted the Earth’s groundwater stocks at a steep rate, largely to fuel global agro-economic development. Given society’s growing reliance on groundwater, we explore ‘peak water limits’ to investigate whether, when and where humanity might reach peak groundwater extraction. Using an integrated global model of the coupled human–Earth system, we simulate groundwater withdrawals across 235 water basins under 900 future scenarios of global change over the twenty-first century. Here we find that global non-renewable groundwater withdrawals exhibit a distinct peak-and-decline signature, comparable to historical observations of other depletable resources (for example, minerals), in nearly all (98%) scenarios, peaking on average at 625 km3 yr−1 around mid-century, followed by a decline through 2100. The peak and decline occur in about one-third (82) of basins, including 21 that may have already peaked, exposing about half (44%) of the global population to groundwater stress. Most

Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons1–6. Here we use recent empirical findings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation, including daily variability and extremes7,8. Using an empirical approach that provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11–29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly through changes in average tempe

Ce rapport analyse les obstacles et leviers à la lumière de projets inspirants en matière d'adaptation des villes à l'élévation du niveau de la mer dans le Pacifique.

Mémoire présenté au ministère de l’Économie, de l’Innovation et de l’Énergie dans le cadre de la Consultation sur l'encadrement et le développement des énergies propres au Québec

Folia | Impact environnemental des dispositifs pour inhalation utilisés dans l’asthme et la BPCO

Ukraine, Covid-19, feux de forêts, contexte de défiance… : comment faire face à des crises qui se multiplient et s’amplifient ? Comment les prévenir, les gérer et surtout s’y préparer ? Pour y répondre, éclairer et orienter nos actions, nous publions avec le Crédoc le tout premier rapport sur la résilience de la société française. Une référence pour agir collectivement !

Quatre chercheurs, dont Philippe Ciais, climatologue CEA au Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, se sont penchés sur la santé des forêts françaises, fragilisées par les conséquences du changement climatique et par les activités humaines. Verdict : elles se détériorent à grande vitesse et pourraient bien perdre leur capacité à absorber le CO2. Une étude à lire dans un rapport publié par l’Académie des sciences et l’Académie d’agriculture de France, le 7 juin 2023.

Flash drought, characterized by unusually rapid drying, can have substantial impact on many socioeconomic sectors, particularly agriculture. However, potential changes to flash drought risk in a warming climate remain unknown. In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model simulations. We find that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel usage. Flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America (change in annual risk from 32% in 2015 to 49% in 2100) and Europe (32% to 53%) in the most extreme emissions scenario. Following low-end and medium scenarios compared to high-end scenarios indicates a notable reduction in annual flash drought risk over cropland. Flash droughts are projected to become more frequent unde

We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pretrained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15%

La Niña is present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. La Niña is expected to continue into the winter, with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023. In February-April 2023, there is a 71% chance of ENSO-neutral.*

Vaccination, despite being recognized as one of the most effective primary public health measures, is viewed as unsafe and unnecessary by an increasing number of individuals. Anxiety about vaccines and vaccination programs leading to vaccine hesitancy results from a complex mix of social and political influences, cultural and religious beliefs, the availability of and ability to interpret health and scientific information, and personal and population experiences of health systems and government policies. Vaccine hesitancy is becoming a serious threat to vaccination programs, and was identified as one of the World Health Organization’s top ten global health threats in 2019. The negative impact of anti-vaccination movements is frequently cited as one of the major reasons for rising vaccine hesitancy amongst the general public world-wide. This review discusses the various issues surrounding vaccine hesitancy and the anti-vaccine movement, starting with the definitions of vaccine hesitancy and the anti-vaccine mo

Proposé par le Ministre du Climat, Philippe HENRY et la Ministre de l’Environnement, Céline TELLIER 9 septembre 2022

Différentes pressions s’exercent sur l’espace alpin, où on observe une augmentation moyenne de la température de 2°C depuis 1950, ce qui entraîne un déficit hydrique, de nouveaux parasites, et impacte les arbres des forêts et de l’espace urbain. On sait également que les forêts ne peuvent pas s’adapter aussi rapidement que les changements climatiques interviennent.

Ce policy brief propose une série de recommandations et appelle au renforcement des connaissances en amont de l’implantation d’éoliennes en mer. Il prône une meilleure connaissance du fonctionnement des écosystèmes marins, des impacts cumulés des activités humaines existantes et des impacts sur le milieu marin du changement climatique, afin de guider la planification notamment dans le choix des zones d’implantation des éoliennes.

Dans le cadre du programme Ecophyto II+, les ministères en charge de la transition écologique, de l’agriculture et de la recherche ont confié en 2020 à INRAE et l’Ifremer le pilotage d’une expertise scientifique collective sur les impacts de ces produits sur la biodiversité et les services écosystémiques, depuis leurs zones d’épandage jusqu’au milieu marin, en France métropolitaine et en Outre-Mer. Les conclusions de cette expertise, présentées ce 5 mai lors d’un colloque public, confirment que l’ensemble des milieux terrestres, aquatiques et marins – notamment côtiers – sont contaminés par les produits phytopharmaceutiques. Des impacts directs et indirects de ces substances sont également avérés sur les écosystèmes et les populations d’organismes terrestres, aquatiques et marins. La contamination tend néanmoins à diminuer pour les substances interdites depuis plusieurs années. Ces travaux mettent aussi en avant des besoins de recherche complémentaires pour mieux quantifier l’impact de ces produits sur l’envi

The Working Group III report provides an updated global assessment of climate change mitigation progress and pledges, and examines the sources of global emissions. It explains developments in emission reduction and mitigation efforts, assessing the impact of national climate pledges in relation to long-term emissions goals.