Flux continu

Exclusive: UCL scientists find large swathes of southern Europe are drying up, with ‘far-reaching’ implications

Much attention today focuses on uncertainties affecting the future evolution of oil and natural gas demand, with less consideration given to how the supply picture could develop. However, understanding decline rates – the annual rate at which production declines from existing oil and gas fields – is crucial for assessing the outlook for oil and gas supply and, by extension, for market balances. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has long examined this issue, and a detailed understanding of decline rates is at the heart of IEA modelling and analysis, underpinning the insights provided by the scenarios in the World Energy Outlook. This new report – based on analysis of the production records of around 15 000 oil and gas fields around the world – explores the implications of accelerating decline rates, growing reliance on unconventional resources, and evolving project development patterns for the global oil and gas supply landscape, for energy security and for investment. It also provides regional insights

L'hashtag #IEA a publié cette semaine un rapport peu commenté mais aux enseignements majeurs, "The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates" On y apprend notamment que 90% des investissements du secteur Oil and Gas servent à maintenir la production, face à un taux de déclin de plus en plus important. En 2025, le "déclin naturel" annuel des champs pétroliers représente 6 millions de barils/jour.

Il faut absolument se passer des délétères énergies fossiles car les coûts directs et indirects (dérèglement climatique, pollution, biodiversité, destruction de l'environnement,...) de leurs usages ne sont absolument pas soutenables. Mais s'en passer à des implications socio-économiques importantes qu'il y a lieu de comprendre et d'anticiper afin qu'une transition hors des énergies fossiles puisse se dérouler sans heurts.

The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates

Satellite data processing algorithms developed by ICM-CSIC have played a crucial role in detecting this significant shift in the Southern Hemisphere, which could accelerate the effects of climate change.

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is the world's strongest ocean current and plays a disproportionate role in the climate system due to its role as a conduit for major ocean basins. This current system is linked to the ocean's vertical overturning circulation, and is thus pivotal to the uptake of heat and CO2 in the ocean. The strength of the ACC has varied substantially across warm and cold climates in Earth's past, but the exact dynamical drivers of this change remain elusive. This is in part because ocean models have historically been unable to adequately resolve the small-scale processes that control current strength. Here, we assess a global ocean model simulation which resolves such processes to diagnose the impact of changing thermal, haline and wind conditions on the strength of the ACC. Our results show that, by 2050, the strength of the ACC declines by ∼20% for a high-emissions scenario. This decline is driven by meltwater from ice shelves around Antarctica, which is exported to lower latit

À quelques jours du début de la COP29, la victoire électorale de Donald Trump n'augure rien de bon pour le futur des politiques et du financement de la lutte contre le changement climatique.

À quelques jours du début de la COP29, la victoire électorale de Donald Trump n’augure rien de bon pour le futur des politiques et du financement de la lutte contre le changement climatique.Climatosceptique affiché, Donald Trump avait fait campagne en 2016 sur la relance du charbon aux États-Unis, l’allègement des contraintes environnementales imposées par l’administration démocrate et la sortie de l’Accord de Paris.

These powerful ‘rivers in the sky’ provide a huge share of annual precipitation in many regions, including California. They can also melt sea ice, with global climate implications.