Jean-Marc Jancovici

Timely and accurate projections of when global warming will exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C threshold are essential for effective climate policy. Existing estimates place this exceedance in the early 2030 s but carry substantial uncertainty. Here we analyze the latest observational temperature records through 2025 and identify a statistically significant doubling of the global warming rate during 2011–2025 (0.40 °C per decade) compared to 1971–2025 (0.20 °C per decade). Extrapolating this accelerated rate projects a crossing of the 1.5 °C threshold by 2028, nearly a decade earlier than previous estimates. Regional analyses attribute this acceleration primarily to intensified warming over East Asia–the North Pacific, mid-latitude Eurasia, and the South Atlantic–Antarctic regions. The ensemble mean of 26 climate models fails to capture the observed doubling of the warming rate, simulating a rate of only 0.29 °C per decade. These findings suggest a narrower window remains to limit warming to 1.5 °C, undersco

Une nouvelle pollution intoxique la Méditerranée : le scrubbing. Pensée pour filtrer les émissions de gaz des navires, cette technologie ne fait que déplacer le mal de l’air vers l’eau, bien aidée par une législation permissive.

Natural sinks of forests and peat were key to Finland’s ambitious target to be carbon neutral by 2035. But now, the land has started emitting more greenhouse gases than it stores