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Climate

2026

Scientists know how to alter our atmosphere to try and fix climate change, but doing so could bring other potential unintended impacts
The Ocean is essential to life on Earth, regulates the climate, supports rich biodiversity, sustains livelihoods, and inspires cultures and societies. However, unregulated human impacts are putting the Ocean and its ability to contribute to humanity at risk. The Starfish Barometer is a new initiative launched on World Ocean Day (8 June 2025) to provide a concise, science-based annual overview of the multiple dimensions of the Ocean through the lens of its interdependence with humanity. Each year, the Starfish Barometer will present a carefully curated selection of Ocean-related developments, chosen for their global significance and grounded in the most up-to-date scientific evidence, intended for a broad non-specialist audience. Rather than offering an exhaustive review, it will spotlight key aspects, robust, evidence-based, and reflective of major developments of the year. The Starfish Barometer emphasizes the two-way relationship between humanity and the Ocean: we impact its future, and it shapes ours. Its
The system of ocean current that moves heat in the Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in regulating climate. Today’s monitoring of it may be discontinued...
Projections of near-term climate change are a potential research tool. However, for that tool to be most useful, the physical basis for a prediction must be made clear. The basis for our projection of record 2026 global temperature is high climate sensitivity, with its implication that aerosol cooling was still increasing during the period 1970-2005. One consequence, global sea surface warming, already has important effects. Causes of climate change must be understood for policy purposes. Figures in this post and our recent papers are continually updated on our website.[1] We are also now on Substack[2].
The Global Justice Project is a collective research initiative developed by the World Inequality Lab. Combining comparative historical data series from the World Inequality Database with global input-output tables, environmental accounts, labour force surveys and other sources, the project explores what a just distribution of socio-economic and environmental resources could look like at the global level from 2025 to 2100 – both between and within countries – in a way that is compatible with planetary boundaries. The project partly builds on the analysis and proposals set out in Thomas Piketty’s Brief History of Equality, extending them into a broader and more comprehensive global framework. The Global Justice Project is now available to explore on a dedicated website, that includes an interactive tool to explore the distributional pathways and climate scenarios behind the report.
The Global Justice Report offers a hopeful bargain: tax extreme wealth and replace consumer excess with social and economic security for all
Vagues de chaleur marines en hausse, fonte du budget carbone... Ces indicateurs qui explosent témoignent du rythme sans précédent atteint par le réchauffement planétaire, estiment 73 chercheurs dans un rapport publié le 11 juin.
- Artificial intelligence could pose a "more urgent" threat to humanity than climate change, AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton told Reuters in an interview on Friday. Geoffrey Hinton, widely known as one of the "godfathers of AI", recently announced he had quit Alphabet, opens new tab after a decade at the firm, saying he wanted to speak out on the risks of the technology without it affecting his former employer.
Global effort needed to limit effects of pollution, industrial fishing and climate crisis, World Ocean Assessment says
Les scénarios socio-économiques et les niveaux de réchauffement planétaire qui en résultent structurent la compréhension des chaines de causalité entre les émissions de gaz à effet de serre, le contrôle de la pollution atmosphérique, les changements d’usage des terres, la réponse du système Terre, les facteurs climatiques générateurs d’impacts, l’exposition, la vulnérabilité, les réponses d’adaptation, et les risques liés au climat.
Climatologists say a particularly powerful weather pattern could amplify wildfire risk, heatwaves and flooding worldwide as global temperatures continue to rise
Patrick Pester is the trending news writer at Live Science. His work has appeared on other science websites, such as BBC Science Focus and Scientific American. Patrick retrained as a journalist after spending his early career working in zoos and wildlife conservation. He was awarded the Master's Excellence Scholarship to study at Cardiff University where he completed a master's degree in international journalism. He also has a second master's degree in biodiversity, evolution and conservation in action from Middlesex University London. When he isn't writing news, Patrick investigates the sale of human remains.
Climate Action Tracker
Exclusive: Commission says alert would trigger coordinated international response that could help avoid millions dying. The climate crisis should be declared a global public health emergency by the World Health Organization, or millions more people will die unnecessarily, leading international experts have said. The independent pan-European commission on climate and health, which was convened by the WHO, concluded the climate crisis was such a worldwide threat to health that the WHO should declare it “a public health emergency of international concern” (Pheic).
Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation and adaptation actions). This paper describes the scenario framework for ScenarioMIP as part of CMIP7. The design process has involved various rounds of interaction with the research community and user groups at large. The proposal covers a set of scenarios exploring high levels of climate change (to explore high-end climate risks), medium levels of climate change (anchored to current policy), and low levels of climate change (aligned with current international agreements). These scenarios follow very different trajectories in terms of emissions, with some likely to experience peaks and subsequent declines in greenhouse gas concentrations in this century. An important innovation is that most scenarios are intended to be run, if possible, in emission-driven mode, providing a better representation of the Earth system uncert
Investment firms have put over $100 million into developing risky technologies that could cool the planet with unknown side effects.
Op 29 april publiceerden de Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) en de Wereld Meteorologische Organisatie (WMO) hun jaarlijkse rapport “European State of the Climate 2025”. Deze gedetailleerde analyse van het Europese klimaat omvat een brede waaier aan klimaatvariabelen, van de jaarlijkse temperatuur, hitte- en koudestress tot zonneschijnduur en bewolking, van bosbranden tot gletsjers en nog veel meer.
Vous êtes formateur ou formatrice et souhaitez aborder le sujet des modèles climatiques lors d’une formation ? Modéliser le climat dans votre classe est une ressource de formation professionnelle conçue pour aider les enseignants à comprendre comment les modèles climatiques sont construits, comment ils fonctionnent et comment ils permettent d’analyser le changement climatique, les projections futures et les enjeux climatiques en milieu urbain.
A climate monster is growing right now in the Pacific Ocean, perhaps the most fearsome El Niño since before scientists even began modeling them. They now know the pattern quite well: A marine heat-wave in the Pacific Ocean scrambles global weather and produces in some places more intense droughts and in others more intense rainfall and flooding; disruptions to hurricane patterns and monsoon seasons, which can cause widespread crop failures; and much more punishing heat.
We work to ensure that carbon pricing and other climate policies cut pollution and drive a just transition towards zero-carbon societies.
The process of relocating people from New Orleans should start immediately, as the city has reached a “point of no return” that will see it surrounded by the ocean within decades due to the climate crisis, a stark new study has concluded. Ongoing sea-level rise and the rampant erosion of wetlands in southern Louisiana will swallow up the New Orleans area within a few generations, with the new paper estimating the city “may well be surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico before the end of this century”.
Periodically posting commentary on climate science and policy.
We infer that 2026 is likely to be the warmest year in the period of instrumental data, based on a physics-based approach with identifiable assumptions. This approach may help us learn something in 2026 about the mechanisms of climate change. The figures in this post and our other current papers will be continually updated on our website,2 when they remain relevant. We are also now on Substack3.
The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) earlier this year issued a forecast of a strong (“Super”) El Nino to begin later this year and peak in early 2027, as we have discussed in two earlier posts.3,4 El Ninos are important because of the large effects that they have on global weather, even though those effects are not always consistent from one El Nino to another. El Ninos have even greater effect in combination with ongoing global warming, e.g., Radfar et al.5 find that the combination of an El Nino with increasingly prevalent marine heat waves results in tropical cyclones consistently producing higher maximum wind speeds, storm surges, and precipitation rates, and Liu et al.6 describe evidence of El Ninos strengthened control over global climate anomalies in a warmer world
There is reason to expect that global temperatures will continue to increase over the remainder of the year, as a strong El Niño event is expected
Environment News: UNITED NATIONS: Vanuatu will renew its climate justice fight at the United Nations General Assembly with a draft resolution that was watered down afte.
Wildfires used to die down and even stop at night with cooler temperatures and increased humidity. But a study released Friday says climate change is making burning weather more around the clock in North America because night is becoming warmer and drier. Canadian fire scientists say potential burning hours for fires have increased 36% in the last 50 years. California now has about 550 more fire-friendly hours a year than it did in the 1970s. North American summer nights are warming faster than days, evening relief is evaporating for forests and that means the area of land burned is soaring.
Climate models show considerable discrepancies in their future projections around the Atlantic, mainly due to uncertainties in the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Climate models suggest a reduction in AMOC strength of 32 ± 37% by 2100 (90% probability, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 scenario, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6). To refine this estimate and reduce its uncertainty, we use four different observational constraint methods. The best one, which provides the lowest leave-one-out error, integrates a large set of observable variables using ridge-regularized linear regression—a method unusual in climate science. It gives an estimate of the AMOC slowdown of 51 ± 8% (90% probability), i.e., a weakening ∼ 60% stronger than suggested by the multimodel mean. This refinement mainly results from correcting a bias in South Atlantic surface salinity, consistent with recent studies emphasizing its role in the proximity to an AMOC tipping point. This more substantial
The critical Atlantic current system appears significantly more likely to collapse than previously thought after new research found that climate models predicting the biggest slowdown are the most realistic. Scientists called the new finding “very concerning” as a collapse would have catastrophic consequences for Europe, Africa and the Americas.
A team including scientists, Indigenous people and conservationists point to the ecosystem connecting Yellowstone and the Yukon as an example of a region where humans and nature are flourishing together.
In a Swiss forest lab, scientists tracked how beech and oak leaves cool themselves and pinpointed the moment heat and drought push them past their limits.
Analysis of six extreme heatwaves found when temperature and humidity were accounted for, all were potentially deadly for older people
Climate regime shifts (CRSs), characterized by abrupt and persistent transitions between alternative stable states in the climate system, pose serious threats to ecosystems and human well-being. Understanding the potential drivers of CRSs is crucial, particularly in a warming world where CRSs are becoming more frequent.
Using a field experiment, we measured the heat tolerance of insects across many different groups. This is important because most previous studies either combine inconsistent datasets or focus on a single species. Our goal was to understand how entire insect communities respond to heat. We looked at a large variety of insects, such as flies, bees, beetles, butterflies and grasshoppers, to name just a few. We found that many are likely to face dangerous levels of heat stress. This was true even under conservative assumptions, including the possibility that species move into cooler habitats.
When James Prescott Joule lent his name to a unit of energy, he could not have foreseen today’s alarming calculations
Climate change is causing measurable harm globally1,2. Political and legal efforts seek to link these damages with specific emissions, including in discussions of loss and damage (L&D)3,4; however, no quantitative definition of L&D exists5,6, nor is there a framework to link past and future emissions from specific sources to monetized, location-specific damages. Here we develop such a framework, which is integrated with recent efforts to estimate the social cost of carbon7. Using empirical estimates of the non-linear relationship between temperature and aggregate economic output, we show that future damages from past emissions—one component of L&D—are at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions. For instance, one tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 caused US$180 in discounted global damages by 2020 ($40–530) and will cause an additional $1,840 through 2100 ($500–5,700). Thus, settling debts for past damages will not settle debts for past emissions. In other illustrative esti
Trump a lancé une attaque sans précédent contre l’environnement. Où est la riposte ? Les climatosceptiques s’attendaient à plus de résistance face à l’offensive en faveur des énergies fossiles. Mais les démocrates, les milliardaires et les militants sont restés silencieux. ...
As climate change accelerates, its effects are being felt in every corner of the world. A comprehensive global index developed by researchers at the University of Notre Dame has assessed the climate vulnerability and adaptive readiness of nearly 200 countries, revealing stark and troubling disparities between the world’s wealthiest and most impoverished nations.
 As climate protests are mounting across Italy, there is a corresponding escalation in repressive responses from public authorities. This trend is not unique to Italy but is rather widespread throughout Europe, as evidenced by frequent reports in national newspapers... What sets Italy apart from other European nations is the spectacular increase in the use of preventive measures by the public security administration.
Researchers identify sharp rise to about 0.35C every decade, after excluding natural fluctuations such as El Niño
What is currently happening in Brussels under the guise of regulatory simplification is being presented as something technical and logical. Less regulatory pressure, more competitiveness. A series of so-called omnibus bills are intended to streamline legislation. Reporting obligations are being limited and reassessments of raw materials postponed. It sounds like administrative efficiency. In Washington, things are moving even faster: Trump is dismantling the basis for climate laws while the world continues to warm up. The framing is the same: rules slow down businesses, and a slowed-down business community makes us poor. But that reasoning assumes something that is not true: that everyone wants the same thing from the market.
A recent UK national security assessment on biodiversity and ecosystem collapse made headlines, not for its dire warnings, but for its omissions. It's part of a larger trend of governments keeping climate security reports from the public.
Even as weather extremes worsen, the voices calling for the rolling back of environmental rules have grown louder and more influential
Science-based policies could successfully limit human-caused climate change, but when political parties are allowed to accept money from special interests, policies are distorted to the point of being ineffective. This is a solvable problem, but to clarify the situation and the needed actions, we need to first marshal the evidence. The draft Prologue of Sophie’s Planet is intended to help coherently organize the evidence. Here is Part III of V, with the final two paragraphs of Part II.
Three major Defence Agencies are quietly admitting what most still refuse to face: climate breakdown is coming for our food, and the cracks are already spreading. While the wealthy cling to logistics and illusion, the real defence strategy is soil and local growers who refuse to let their communities starve.
The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but we suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing, not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.
Welcome to the Global Climate Highlights 2025 report, compiled by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The Global Climate Highlights 2025 report provides authoritative climate data and concise insight on a global scale about 2025's climate conditions, covering surface and sea surface temperature, heat stress, sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic, among others.
US President Donald Trump has announced the reversal of the so-called endangerment finding, a key Obama-era scientific ruling that underpins much of US environmental legislation. As a result of this, experts are predicting various environmental and economic impacts, though the decision by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to be challenged in the courts from environmental groups.
A critical step on the path towards climate neutrality, the European Union’s 2040 target calls for a 90-per-cent reduction in emissions. Yet as far-reaching as this goal may seem, its provisions constitute a weakening of Europe’s climate ambitions under the Green Deal. By allowing costly and ineffective CO2 removal and storage technologies as a way of lowering emissions, the target risks deterring direct emission cuts and outsourcing pollution.
With warming set to pass the critical 1.5-degree limit, scientists are warning that the world is on course to trigger tipping points that would lead to cascading consequences — from the melting of ice sheets to the death of the Amazon rainforest — that could not be reversed.