Résiliænces Métamorphoses

The system of ocean current that moves heat in the Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in regulating climate. Today’s monitoring of it may be discontinued...

Scientists know how to alter our atmosphere to try and fix climate change, but doing so could bring other potential unintended impacts

Projections of near-term climate change are a potential research tool. However, for that tool to be most useful, the physical basis for a prediction must be made clear. The basis for our projection of record 2026 global temperature is high climate sensitivity, with its implication that aerosol cooling was still increasing during the period 1970-2005. One consequence, global sea surface warming, already has important effects. Causes of climate change must be understood for policy purposes. Figures in this post and our recent papers are continually updated on our website.[1] We are also now on Substack[2].

Vagues de chaleur marines en hausse, fonte du budget carbone... Ces indicateurs qui explosent témoignent du rythme sans précédent atteint par le réchauffement planétaire, estiment 73 chercheurs dans un rapport publié le 11 juin.

- Artificial intelligence could pose a "more urgent" threat to humanity than climate change, AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton told Reuters in an interview on Friday. Geoffrey Hinton, widely known as one of the "godfathers of AI", recently announced he had quit Alphabet, opens new tab after a decade at the firm, saying he wanted to speak out on the risks of the technology without it affecting his former employer.

Global effort needed to limit effects of pollution, industrial fishing and climate crisis, World Ocean Assessment says

The Global Justice Report offers a hopeful bargain: tax extreme wealth and replace consumer excess with social and economic security for all

Les scénarios socio-économiques et les niveaux de réchauffement planétaire qui en résultent structurent la compréhension des chaines de causalité entre les émissions de gaz à effet de serre, le contrôle de la pollution atmosphérique, les changements d’usage des terres, la réponse du système Terre, les facteurs climatiques générateurs d’impacts, l’exposition, la vulnérabilité, les réponses d’adaptation, et les risques liés au climat.

Climate Action Tracker

Investment firms have put over $100 million into developing risky technologies that could cool the planet with unknown side effects.

Exclusive: Commission says alert would trigger coordinated international response that could help avoid millions dying. The climate crisis should be declared a global public health emergency by the World Health Organization, or millions more people will die unnecessarily, leading international experts have said. The independent pan-European commission on climate and health, which was convened by the WHO, concluded the climate crisis was such a worldwide threat to health that the WHO should declare it “a public health emergency of international concern” (Pheic).

Op 29 april publiceerden de Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) en de Wereld Meteorologische Organisatie (WMO) hun jaarlijkse rapport “European State of the Climate 2025”. Deze gedetailleerde analyse van het Europese klimaat omvat een brede waaier aan klimaatvariabelen, van de jaarlijkse temperatuur, hitte- en koudestress tot zonneschijnduur en bewolking, van bosbranden tot gletsjers en nog veel meer.

Vous êtes formateur ou formatrice et souhaitez aborder le sujet des modèles climatiques lors d’une formation ? Modéliser le climat dans votre classe est une ressource de formation professionnelle conçue pour aider les enseignants à comprendre comment les modèles climatiques sont construits, comment ils fonctionnent et comment ils permettent d’analyser le changement climatique, les projections futures et les enjeux climatiques en milieu urbain.

Climatologists say a particularly powerful weather pattern could amplify wildfire risk, heatwaves and flooding worldwide as global temperatures continue to rise

We work to ensure that carbon pricing and other climate policies cut pollution and drive a just transition towards zero-carbon societies.

Patrick Pester is the trending news writer at Live Science. His work has appeared on other science websites, such as BBC Science Focus and Scientific American. Patrick retrained as a journalist after spending his early career working in zoos and wildlife conservation. He was awarded the Master's Excellence Scholarship to study at Cardiff University where he completed a master's degree in international journalism. He also has a second master's degree in biodiversity, evolution and conservation in action from Middlesex University London. When he isn't writing news, Patrick investigates the sale of human remains.

A climate monster is growing right now in the Pacific Ocean, perhaps the most fearsome El Niño since before scientists even began modeling them. They now know the pattern quite well: A marine heat-wave in the Pacific Ocean scrambles global weather and produces in some places more intense droughts and in others more intense rainfall and flooding; disruptions to hurricane patterns and monsoon seasons, which can cause widespread crop failures; and much more punishing heat.

We infer that 2026 is likely to be the warmest year in the period of instrumental data, based on a physics-based approach with identifiable assumptions. This approach may help us learn something in 2026 about the mechanisms of climate change. The figures in this post and our other current papers will be continually updated on our website,2 when they remain relevant. We are also now on Substack3.

Periodically posting commentary on climate science and policy.

The process of relocating people from New Orleans should start immediately, as the city has reached a “point of no return” that will see it surrounded by the ocean within decades due to the climate crisis, a stark new study has concluded. Ongoing sea-level rise and the rampant erosion of wetlands in southern Louisiana will swallow up the New Orleans area within a few generations, with the new paper estimating the city “may well be surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico before the end of this century”.

There is reason to expect that global temperatures will continue to increase over the remainder of the year, as a strong El Niño event is expected

Environment News: UNITED NATIONS: Vanuatu will renew its climate justice fight at the United Nations General Assembly with a draft resolution that was watered down afte.

Climate models show considerable discrepancies in their future projections around the Atlantic, mainly due to uncertainties in the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Climate models suggest a reduction in AMOC strength of 32 ± 37% by 2100 (90% probability, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 scenario, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6). To refine this estimate and reduce its uncertainty, we use four different observational constraint methods. The best one, which provides the lowest leave-one-out error, integrates a large set of observable variables using ridge-regularized linear regression—a method unusual in climate science. It gives an estimate of the AMOC slowdown of 51 ± 8% (90% probability), i.e., a weakening ∼ 60% stronger than suggested by the multimodel mean. This refinement mainly results from correcting a bias in South Atlantic surface salinity, consistent with recent studies emphasizing its role in the proximity to an AMOC tipping point. This more substantial

Wildfires used to die down and even stop at night with cooler temperatures and increased humidity. But a study released Friday says climate change is making burning weather more around the clock in North America because night is becoming warmer and drier. Canadian fire scientists say potential burning hours for fires have increased 36% in the last 50 years. California now has about 550 more fire-friendly hours a year than it did in the 1970s. North American summer nights are warming faster than days, evening relief is evaporating for forests and that means the area of land burned is soaring.

The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) earlier this year issued a forecast of a strong (“Super”) El Nino to begin later this year and peak in early 2027, as we have discussed in two earlier posts.3,4 El Ninos are important because of the large effects that they have on global weather, even though those effects are not always consistent from one El Nino to another. El Ninos have even greater effect in combination with ongoing global warming, e.g., Radfar et al.5 find that the combination of an El Nino with increasingly prevalent marine heat waves results in tropical cyclones consistently producing higher maximum wind speeds, storm surges, and precipitation rates, and Liu et al.6 describe evidence of El Ninos strengthened control over global climate anomalies in a warmer world

The critical Atlantic current system appears significantly more likely to collapse than previously thought after new research found that climate models predicting the biggest slowdown are the most realistic. Scientists called the new finding “very concerning” as a collapse would have catastrophic consequences for Europe, Africa and the Americas.

Analysis of six extreme heatwaves found when temperature and humidity were accounted for, all were potentially deadly for older people

A team including scientists, Indigenous people and conservationists point to the ecosystem connecting Yellowstone and the Yukon as an example of a region where humans and nature are flourishing together.

Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation and adaptation actions). This paper describes the scenario framework for ScenarioMIP as part of CMIP7. The design process has involved various rounds of interaction with the research community and user groups at large. The proposal covers a set of scenarios exploring high levels of climate change (to explore high-end climate risks), medium levels of climate change (anchored to current policy), and low levels of climate change (aligned with current international agreements). These scenarios follow very different trajectories in terms of emissions, with some likely to experience peaks and subsequent declines in greenhouse gas concentrations in this century. An important innovation is that most scenarios are intended to be run, if possible, in emission-driven mode, providing a better representation of the Earth system uncert

In a Swiss forest lab, scientists tracked how beech and oak leaves cool themselves and pinpointed the moment heat and drought push them past their limits.

Using a field experiment, we measured the heat tolerance of insects across many different groups. This is important because most previous studies either combine inconsistent datasets or focus on a single species. Our goal was to understand how entire insect communities respond to heat. We looked at a large variety of insects, such as flies, bees, beetles, butterflies and grasshoppers, to name just a few. We found that many are likely to face dangerous levels of heat stress. This was true even under conservative assumptions, including the possibility that species move into cooler habitats.

Climate change is causing measurable harm globally1,2. Political and legal efforts seek to link these damages with specific emissions, including in discussions of loss and damage (L&D)3,4; however, no quantitative definition of L&D exists5,6, nor is there a framework to link past and future emissions from specific sources to monetized, location-specific damages. Here we develop such a framework, which is integrated with recent efforts to estimate the social cost of carbon7. Using empirical estimates of the non-linear relationship between temperature and aggregate economic output, we show that future damages from past emissions—one component of L&D—are at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions. For instance, one tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 caused US$180 in discounted global damages by 2020 ($40–530) and will cause an additional $1,840 through 2100 ($500–5,700). Thus, settling debts for past damages will not settle debts for past emissions. In other illustrative esti

When James Prescott Joule lent his name to a unit of energy, he could not have foreseen today’s alarming calculations

Trump a lancé une attaque sans précédent contre l’environnement. Où est la riposte ? Les climatosceptiques s’attendaient à plus de résistance face à l’offensive en faveur des énergies fossiles. Mais les démocrates, les milliardaires et les militants sont restés silencieux. ...

As climate change accelerates, its effects are being felt in every corner of the world. A comprehensive global index developed by researchers at the University of Notre Dame has assessed the climate vulnerability and adaptive readiness of nearly 200 countries, revealing stark and troubling disparities between the world’s wealthiest and most impoverished nations.

Researchers identify sharp rise to about 0.35C every decade, after excluding natural fluctuations such as El Niño

What is currently happening in Brussels under the guise of regulatory simplification is being presented as something technical and logical. Less regulatory pressure, more competitiveness. A series of so-called omnibus bills are intended to streamline legislation. Reporting obligations are being limited and reassessments of raw materials postponed. It sounds like administrative efficiency. In Washington, things are moving even faster: Trump is dismantling the basis for climate laws while the world continues to warm up. The framing is the same: rules slow down businesses, and a slowed-down business community makes us poor. But that reasoning assumes something that is not true: that everyone wants the same thing from the market.

A recent UK national security assessment on biodiversity and ecosystem collapse made headlines, not for its dire warnings, but for its omissions. It's part of a larger trend of governments keeping climate security reports from the public.

Even as weather extremes worsen, the voices calling for the rolling back of environmental rules have grown louder and more influential

Science-based policies could successfully limit human-caused climate change, but when political parties are allowed to accept money from special interests, policies are distorted to the point of being ineffective. This is a solvable problem, but to clarify the situation and the needed actions, we need to first marshal the evidence. The draft Prologue of Sophie’s Planet is intended to help coherently organize the evidence. Here is Part III of V, with the final two paragraphs of Part II.