Transition énergétique ?

A critical step on the path towards climate neutrality, the European Union’s 2040 target calls for a 90-per-cent reduction in emissions. Yet as far-reaching as this goal may seem, its provisions constitute a weakening of Europe’s climate ambitions under the Green Deal. By allowing costly and ineffective CO2 removal and storage technologies as a way of lowering emissions, the target risks deterring direct emission cuts and outsourcing pollution.

With warming set to pass the critical 1.5-degree limit, scientists are warning that the world is on course to trigger tipping points that would lead to cascading consequences — from the melting of ice sheets to the death of the Amazon rainforest — that could not be reversed.

The doughnut-shaped framework of social and planetary boundaries (the ‘Doughnut’) provides a concise visual assessment of progress towards the goal of meeting the needs of all people within the means of the living planet1,2,3. Here we present a renewed Doughnut framework with a revised set of 35 indicators that monitor trends in social deprivation and ecological overshoot over the 2000–2022 period. Although global gross domestic product (GDP) has more than doubled, our median results show a modest achievement in reducing human deprivation that would have to accelerate fivefold to meet the needs of all people by 2030.

Passing 1.5ºC is now inevitable. Overshoot scenarios tell us that we can relatively safely pass this level but then bring temperatures back down again, but how realistic are they, and how safe?

Het is vandaag Belgian Overshoot Day. Als de hele wereld zou leven zoals de gemiddelde Belg, dan zouden alle natuurlijke hulpmiddelen en diensten voor dit jaar nu al opgebruikt zijn, na amper 3 maanden. Er zouden met andere woorden ruim 4 planeten aarde nodig zijn om de Belgische voetafdruk op te vangen. Hoe komt dat? Waarom doen onze buurlanden het beter? En wat kunnen we daaraan doen?

By over-consuming our environment—and ecosystem stability—in the short-term, we are putting our planet’s long-term stability and capacity to provide for future generations in jeopardy.

Ce 17 février marque le "jour du dépassement" au Luxembourg, date à laquelle le pays à consommer toutes les ressources qu'il pouvait produire durant l'année.

Alors que 2024 est officiellement la première année à avoir dépassé les 1,5°C de réchauffement et que l'objectif de se maintenir sous ce seuil de l'Accord de Paris semble de plus en plus inatteignable, certains s'interrogent sur la possibilité de revenir plus tard à des températures plus clémentes à grand recours de géo-ingénierie. Un scénario qui n'empêcherait pas certaines conséquences irréversibles du réchauffement climatique, alertent les spécialistes.

For those trying to pay attention in our post-truth, post fact-checking brave new world that has such misinformation systems in it, Dr. Rees is a source to consider. The link: Climate Change, Overshoot and the Demise of Large Cities: Why large cities will need to contract or be abandoned altogether

This research reinforces the scientific consensus that the only viable strategy to limit catastrophic climate change requires drastic and immediate emissions cuts. An important study was published last month in the journal Nature, titled “Overconfidence in climate overshoot.” While increasingly dire warnings of the catastrophic impacts of global climate change continue to be published by scientists, the findings of this new paper provide another stark reminder of the urgent necessity to limit global warming by immediately reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.