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Several, more recent global warming projections in the coupled model intercomparison project 6 contain extensions beyond year 2100–2300/2500. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in these projections shows transitions to extremely weak overturning below the surface mixed layer (<6 Sv; 1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1) in all models forced by a high-emission (SSP585) scenario and sometimes also forced by an intermediate- (SSP245) and low-emission (SSP126) scenario. These extremely weak overturning states are characterised by a shallow maximum overturning at depths less than 200 m and a shutdown of the circulation associated with North Atlantic deep water formation. Northward Atlantic heat transport at 26°N decreases to 20%–40% of the current observed value. Heat release to the atmosphere north of 45°N weakens to less than 20% of its present-day value and in some models completely vanishes, leading to strong cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic and Northwest Europe. In all cases, these transitions to a

In an analysis of the best available Earth systems models, Northeastern researchers found that by the turn of the next century, 850 million people will feel the effects of declining runoff from the world's major rivers.

The researchers estimated an extra 8,000 people would die each year as a result of “suboptimal temperatures” even under the most optimistic scenario for cutting planet-heating pollution. The hottest plausible scenario they considered showed a net increase of 80,000 temperature-related deaths a year.

Olivia Ferrari is a New York City-based freelance journalist with a background in research and science communication. Olivia has lived and worked in the U.K., Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Her writing focuses on wildlife, environmental justice, climate change, and social science.

While some progress has been made in limiting greenhouse gas emissions, we are still on the path for high levels of global warming

Over 2.5 billion people depend on aquifers for fresh water, but rising seas and climate change are pushing saltwater into these crucial reserves.

With up to three billion people expected to be displaced by climate change by 2100, does there need to be a shift in the way we think about national borders, asks Gaia Vince?

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As required by the Climate Change Act 2008, the government has today submitted the Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) to Parliament. Professor Richard Betts MBE, who led this team, says that ""ne of the key conclusions from the University of Exeter's work was that current worldwide policies could result in up to 4°C warming by 2100."