Flux continu

The idea that the AMOC is headed to collapse is very controversial, but it is clearly weakening. If the circulation did collapse, the consequences on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean would be immense—including large changes in temperature and a spike in weather-related disasters.

Disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current could freeze Europe, scorch the tropics and increase sea level rise in the North Atlantic. The tipping point may be closer than predicted in the IPCC’s latest assessment.

The network of Atlantic ocean currents keeping the Earth's climate stable are far closer to collapse than first estimated, scientists warn.

Several studies in recent years have suggested the crucial system — the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC — could be on course for collapse, weakened by warmer ocean temperatures and disrupted saltiness caused by human-induced climate change. But the new research, which is being peer-reviewed and hasn’t yet been published in a journal, uses a state-of-the-art model to estimate when it could collapse, suggesting a shutdown could happen between 2037 and 2064.

The Atlantic Ocean's most vital ocean current is showing troubling signs of reaching a disastrous tipping point. Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf tells Live Science what the impacts could be.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the main driver of northward heat transport in the Atlantic Ocean today, setting global climate patterns. Whether global warming has affected the strength of this overturning circulation over the past century is still debated: observational studies suggest that there has been persistent weakening since the mid-twentieth century, whereas climate models systematically simulate a stable circulation. Here, using Earth system and eddy-permitting coupled ocean–sea-ice models, we show that a freshening of the subarctic Atlantic Ocean and weakening of the overturning circulation increase the temperature and salinity of the South Atlantic on a decadal timescale through the propagation of Kelvin and Rossby waves. We also show that accounting for upper-end meltwater input in historical simulations significantly improves the data–model agreement on past changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, yielding a slowdown of 0.46 sverdrups per decade since 1950

AMOC collapse would bring severe global climate repercussions, with Europe bearing the brunt of the consequences.

Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why Amoc breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life

There is increasing concern that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may collapse this century with a disrupting societal impact on large parts of the world. Preliminary estimates of the probability of such an AMOC collapse have so far been based on conceptual models and statistical analyses of proxy data. Here, we provide observationally based estimates of such probabilities from reanalysis data. We first identify optimal observation regions of an AMOC collapse from a recent global climate model simulation. Salinity data near the southern boundary of the Atlantic turn out to be optimal to provide estimates of the time of the AMOC collapse in this model. Based on the reanalysis products, we next determine probability density functions of the AMOC collapse time. The collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be 59±17%.

RealClimate: For various reasons I'm motivated to provide an update on my current thinking regarding the slowdown and tipping point of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). I attended a two-day AMOC session at the IUGG Conference the week before last, there's been interesting new papers, and in the light of that I have been changing

Collapse in system of currents that helps regulate global climate would be at such speed that adaptation would be impossible

Scientists now have a better understanding of the risks ahead and a new early warning signal to watch for.

Marine biologist Bill Montevecchi is ranked in the top two per cent of the world's scientists. While researching the foraging tactics and migratory ecology of seabirds, he has witnessed how the avian flu is killing off seabird colonies in Newfoundland and beyond — and warns something needs to be done.

Howard Dryden reached out to me to express his dismay at having been misquoted by the Sunday Post, which should have reported a "90% reduction in marine plankton in the Equatorial Atlantic, not the whole Atlantic." "The issue is that the findings are accurate and what is stated in the report are true. We are the first to identify the huge concentration of PCC, and the drop in Plankton. We are working with some academic institutes to prepare a formal peer reviewed report, but this takes time and I was so depressed by the results and the fact that we did not see a single whale or big fish, except for a few flying fish for 20 days at sea. This was the same for all the vessels and anyone now sailing in the equatorial Atlantic," Dryden told Ars. "The results should of course be verified independently, and it should be opened up to proper debate. This may be one of the few chances we have and others to pick up the issues and deal with them. If we fail to act and eliminate PCC pollution, microplastics and for e

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested to exhibit two distinct modes of operation. A collapse from the currently attained strong to the weak mode would have severe impacts on the global climate system and further multi-stable Earth system components. Observations and recently suggested fingerprints of AMOC variability indicate a gradual weakening during the last decades, but estimates of the critical transition point remain uncertain.

The Atlantic Ocean's current system, an engine of the Northern Hemsiphere's climate, could be weakening to such an extent that it could soon bring big changes to the world's weather, a scientific study said on Thursday.