Flux continu

Climate change is causing measurable harm globally1,2. Political and legal efforts seek to link these damages with specific emissions, including in discussions of loss and damage (L&D)3,4; however, no quantitative definition of L&D exists5,6, nor is there a framework to link past and future emissions from specific sources to monetized, location-specific damages. Here we develop such a framework, which is integrated with recent efforts to estimate the social cost of carbon7. Using empirical estimates of the non-linear relationship between temperature and aggregate economic output, we show that future damages from past emissions—one component of L&D—are at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions. For instance, one tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 caused US$180 in discounted global damages by 2020 ($40–530) and will cause an additional $1,840 through 2100 ($500–5,700). Thus, settling debts for past damages will not settle debts for past emissions. In other illustrative esti

The Physics of Sustainability – 25/12/2026 - (*The Physics of Sustainability: Material and Power Constraints for the Long Term* – [https://lnkd.in/eMHZ_zvS](https://lnkd.in/eMHZ_zvS)) - À partir de notre article scientifique co-écrit avec plusieurs collègues, qui propose une analyse systémique à l’échelle planétaire en synthétisant plus de 50 ans de résultats (énergie, cycles biogéochimiques, ressources, limites), voilà ce qui change vraiment le cadre. - Le grand malentendu : croire que la soutenabilité se résume à « décarboner ». En réalité, la transition n’est pas seulement une affaire de carbone ni de technologies. L’énergie est avant tout un problème de métabolisme : celui de nos sociétés, de leurs flux matériels, de leurs rythmes et de leurs limites. Sans repenser ce métabolisme, on ne fait que créer des solutions “zombies” : techniquement séduisantes, mais écologiquement et physiquement intenables à long terme.

Much of today's sustainability discourse emphasizes efficiency, clean technologies, and smart systems, but largely underestimates fundamental physical constraints relating to energy-matter interactions. These constraints stem from the fact that Earth is a materially closed yet energetically open system, driven by the sustained but low power-density flux of solar radiation. This Perspective reframes sustainability within these axiomatic limits, integrating relevant timescales and orders of magnitude. We argue that fossil-fueled industrial metabolism is inherently incompatible with long-term viability, while post-fossil systems are surface-, materials-, and power-intensive. Long-term sustainability must therefore be defined not only by how much energy or material is used, but also by how it is used: favoring organic, carbon-based chemistry with limited reliance on purified metals, operating at low power density, and maintaining low throughput rates. Achieving this requires radical technological shifts toward l

The main report provides an integrated narrative, examining the central and vital role that the climate and natural environment play in ensuring health, resilience and prosperity for people, anchored in the EU’s vision for a sustainable Europe by 2050.

Le politologue Edouard Morena revient sur la 5e édition du Building Bridges, le sommet de la finance durable organisé à Genève en décembre dernier – «Un pont qui donne l’illusion de solidité et de progrès mais qui est inadapté face au choc climatique en cours». Décryptage.

An extensive new multi-proxy database of paleo-temperature time series (Temperature 12k) enables a more robust analysis of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and associated uncertainties than was previously available. We applied five different statistical methods to reconstruct the GMST of the past 12,000 years (Holocene). Each method used different approaches to averaging the globally distributed time series and to characterizing various sources of uncertainty, including proxy temperature, chronology and methodological choices. The results were aggregated to generate a multi-method ensemble of plausible GMST and latitudinal-zone temperature reconstructions with a realistic range of uncertainties. The warmest 200-year-long interval took place around 6500 years ago when GMST was 0.7 °C (0.3, 1.8) warmer than the 19th Century (median, 5th, 95th percentiles). Following the Holocene global thermal maximum, GMST cooled at an average rate −0.08 °C per 1000 years (−0.24, −0.05). The multi-method ensembles and th

As the public conversation on climate change evolves, so too does the sophistication and range of arguments used to downplay or discount the need for action (McKie, Reference McKie2019; Norgaard, Reference Norgaard2011). A mainstay of this counter-movement has been outright denial of the reality or human causation of climate change (Farrell et al., Reference Farrell, McConnell and Brulle2019), supplemented by climate-impact scepticism (Harvey et al., Reference Harvey, Van Den Berg, Ellers, Kampen, Crowther, Roessingh and Mann2018) and ad hominem attacks on scientists and the scientific consensus (Oreskes & Conway, Reference Oreskes and Conway2011). A fourth strategy has received relatively little attention to date: policy-focused discourses that exploit contemporary discussions on what action should be taken, how fast, who bears responsibility and where costs and benefits should be allocated (Bohr, Reference Bohr2016; Jacques & Knox, Reference Jacques and Knox2016; McKie, Reference McKie2019). We call these ‘

Over the past 50 years, humans have extracted the Earth’s groundwater stocks at a steep rate, largely to fuel global agro-economic development. Given society’s growing reliance on groundwater, we explore ‘peak water limits’ to investigate whether, when and where humanity might reach peak groundwater extraction. Using an integrated global model of the coupled human–Earth system, we simulate groundwater withdrawals across 235 water basins under 900 future scenarios of global change over the twenty-first century. Here we find that global non-renewable groundwater withdrawals exhibit a distinct peak-and-decline signature, comparable to historical observations of other depletable resources (for example, minerals), in nearly all (98%) scenarios, peaking on average at 625 km3 yr−1 around mid-century, followed by a decline through 2100. The peak and decline occur in about one-third (82) of basins, including 21 that may have already peaked, exposing about half (44%) of the global population to groundwater stress. Most

“100% plantaardig!”, “CO2-neutraal geproduceerd”, “Gecertificeerd voor duurzaamheid”… Klinkt goed, toch? Maar let op: wat bedrijven op hun verpakkingen en in hun marketinguitingen claimen, is niet altijd wat het lijkt. Greenwashing, oftewel het misleidend presenteren van producten of diensten als duurzaam, is helaas een wijdverspreid probleem.

Nous croyons en un monde où les entreprises doivent répondre aux défis du 21ᵉ siècle et contribuent à une société prospère, juste et inclusive à l’intérieur des limites planétaires.