Les Soulèvements de la Terre

Dario Amodei questions if human systems are ready to handle the ‘almost unimaginable power’ that is ‘potentially imminent’

Progress of artificial general intelligence could stall, which may lead to a financial crash, says Yoshua Bengio, one of the ‘godfathers’ of modern AI

Data group forecasts deficit of 10mn tonnes by 2040, equivalent to nearly one-third of current global demand

Les priorités fédérales révèlent une myopie anachronique : on invoque la rigueur et l’intérêt des générations futures pour préserver les finances de l’État, tout en négligeant ces mêmes arguments face aux risques climatiques et environnementaux devenus infiniment plus menaçants.

We propose a new paradigm, as toxicology currently lacks the proper perspective. From the 1950s to the 1970s, at least one-third of all toxicological testing in the United States, including for chemicals and drugs, was misleading scientists, and this worldwide issue persists today. Moreover, petroleum-based waste and heavy metals have been discovered in pesticide and plasticizer formulations. These contaminations have now reached all forms of life. Widespread exposure to chemical mixtures promotes health and environmental risks. We discovered that pesticides have never undergone long-term testing on mammals in their full commercial formulations by regulatory authorities or the pesticide industry; instead, only their declared active ingredients have been assessed, contrary to environmental law recommendations. The ingredients of these formulations are not fully disclosed, yet the formulations are in general at least 1000 times more toxic at low environmentally relevant doses than the active ingredients alone u

Dr Luke Kemp is a Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge. He has a PhD in international relations from the ANU and previous experience as a senior economist at Vivid Economics. This episode explores catastrophic and extinction risk, why the topic is understudied, and how we can weigh out the catastrophic risks of climate change and solar geo-engineering.

Today, Nate is joined by Luke Kemp, a researcher whose work is focused on existential risks (or X-risks), which encompass threats of human extinction, societal collapse, and dystopian futures. How can we begin to understand the likelihood and gravity of these ruinous events, and what kinds of responses from people and governments could further undermine social cohesion and resilience? What roles do human biases, hierarchical power structures, and the development of technologies, like artificial intelligence and geoengineering, play in X-risks? How can we collaborate across industries to protect our modern systems through effective risk management strategies? And in what ways do our institutions need to become more inclusive to better democratize decision-making processes, leading to safer futures for humanity?

Collapse has historically benefited the 99%. […] That’s the amazing conclusion of Luke Kemp, author of Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse.  Luke is a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, and has spent the past five years studying the collapse of civilisations throughout history. He joins me to explain his research, detailing the difference between complex, collective civilisations and what he calls “Goliaths”, massive centralising forces by which a small group of individuals extract wealth from the rest through domination and the threat of violence. Today, he says, we live in a global Goliath.

Le Future Risks Report explore les risques auxquels nous pourrions être confrontés à l'avenir. Ce rapport s’appuie sur les conclusions d’une enquête annuelle menée auprès de 3 600 experts issus de 57 pays et 23 000 personnes représentatives de la population dans 18 pays, les invitant à classer les 10 principaux risques du futur, en fonction de leur impact potentiel sur la société pour les cinq à dix prochaines années.

Effective identification and assessment of various energy transition risks are essential for ensuring energy security. This study conducts a systematic review of the literature on energy transition risk assessment, with three principal objectives: ① establishing a standardized risk taxonomy, ② analyzing the characteristics of current assessment methodologies, and ③ identifying the priority research directions. First, energy transition risks are structured into two categories: implementation risks and consequential risks. Subsequently, assessment methodologies are categorized into five methodological groups: the indicator approach, probabilistic risk assessment approach, econometric approach, simulation approach, and hybrid approach.

German scientists warn global warming is accelerating faster than expected, raising the risk of a 3 °C rise by 2050 and forcing Europe to confront unthinkable adaptation plans.

Four key parts of the Earth’s climate system are destabilising, according to a new study with contributions from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Researchers analysed the interconnections of four major tipping elements: the Greenland ice sheet, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the South American monsoon system. All four show signs of diminished resilience, raising the risk of abrupt and potentially irreversible changes.

EU officials warn climate breakdown and wildlife loss ‘are ruining ecosystems that underpin the economy’ […] The European way of life is being jeopardised by environmental degradation, a report has found, with EU officials warning against weakening green rules. The continent has made “important progress” in cutting planet-heating pollution, according to the European Environment Agency, but the death of wildlife and breakdown of the climate are ruining ecosystems that underpin the economy.

Gains in cutting deaths from tuberculosis at risk as health officials warn clinics forced to ration drugs and testing

A team of researchers in California drew notoriety last year with an aborted experiment on a retired aircraft carrier that sought to test a machine for creating clouds.   But behind the scenes, they were planning a much larger and potentially riskier study of salt-water-spraying equipment that could eventually be used to dim the sun’s rays — a multimillion-dollar project aimed at producing clouds over a stretch of ocean larger than Puerto Rico.

Farming seaweed, changing ocean chemistry, breeding corals and restoring mangroves could help fight climate change – if assessed and managed responsibly.

2024 was the hottest year on record [1], with global temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C above preindustrial climate conditions for the first time and records broken across large parts of Earth’s surface. Among the widespread impacts of exceptional heat, rising food prices are beginning to play a prominent role in public perception, now the second most frequently cited impact of climate change experienced globally, following only extreme heat itself [2]. Recent econometric analysis confirms that abnormally high temperatures directly cause higher food prices, as impacts on agricultural production [3] translate into supply shortages and food price inflation [4, 5]. These analyses track changes in overall price aggregates which are typically slow-moving, but specific food goods can also experience much stronger short-term price spikes in response to extreme heat.

The constant deluge of bad news about rising global temperatures and their impacts can make it feel like the world is ending. Is it?

Research in Chile suggests climate crisis makes eruptions more likely and explosive, and warns of Antarctica risk

The world has been too optimistic about the risk to humanity and planet – but devastation can still be avoided, says Timothy Lenton