Transition énergétique ?

The world endured its costliest wildfire on record in 2025, its sixth-deadliest heat wave, and four floods or storms that caused at least 1,000 deaths.

I always say that models are not predictions; they are qualitative illustrations of what the future could be. But as the future gets closer to the present, models can start being seen as predictive tools. It is the weather/climate dichotomy, so aptly exploited to confuse matters by politically minded people in the discussion about climate. Right now, we are getting close to the point that we could forecast a collapse in the same way as we can forecast the trajectory of a tropical storm. So, you remember how “The Limits to Growth” generated a long term forecast in 1972. Here it is

A “pushing and triggering” mechanism has has driven the Arctic climate system to a new state, which will likely see consistently increased frequency and intensity of extreme events across the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere this century.

De door de mens veroorzaakte klimaatverandering maakte de droogte die Zuid-Europa dit voorjaar trof 10 keer waarschijnlijker. Dat besluiten klimaatwetenschappers van het collectief World Weather Attribution. Die droogte leidde tot verwoestende zomerbranden in onder andere Turkije, Griekenland en Cyprus. Als de klimaatverandering zich verder doorzet, dreigen zulke megabranden nog veel alledaagser te worden dan ze vandaag al zijn.

Extreme heat is breaking records around the world, with wildfires and poor air quality compounding the crisis, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released Thursday.

Extreme heat ‘the new normal’, says UN chief, as authorities across the continent issue health warnings

New data from Nasa has revealed a dramatic rise in the intensity of weather events such as droughts and floods over the past five years.The steepness of the rise was not foreseen. The researchers say they are amazed and alarmed by the latest figures from the watchful eye of Nasa’s Grace satellite, which tracks environmental changes in the planet.

Breaching threshold would ramp up catastrophic weather events, further increasing human suffering

Selon une alerte du réseau scientifique World Weather Attribution (WWA), ce mercredi 11 mai, cette fonte accélérée serait le résultat d’une vague de chaleur record entre le 15 et le 21 mai, qui a aussi touché l’Islande.

The Earth had its second-warmest April in NOAA's 176-year period of record. The 10 warmest Aprils on record have occurred since 2010.