Veille 2.1

An intense heat wave gripping South and South-East Asia since late March comes as no surprise to leading meteorologists who have been warning of steadily rising temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

Climate scientists have told the Guardian they expect catastrophic levels of global heating. Here’s what that would mean for the planet

Exclusive: Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for humanity, poll of hundreds of scientists finds

If the anomaly does not stabilise by August, ‘the world will be in uncharted territory’, says climate expert

Taking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected. More and better data are urgently needed. Taking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected. More and better data are urgently needed.

Evidence shows a continuing increase in the frequency and severity of global heatwaves1,2, raising concerns about the future impacts of climate change and the associated socioeconomic costs3,4. Here we develop a disaster footprint analytical framework by integrating climate, epidemiological and hybrid input–output and computable general equilibrium global trade models to estimate the midcentury socioeconomic impacts of heat stress. We consider health costs related to heat exposure, the value of heat-induced labour productivity loss and indirect losses due to economic disruptions cascading through supply chains. Here we show that the global annual incremental gross domestic product loss increases exponentially from 0.03 ± 0.01 (SSP 245)–0.05 ± 0.03 (SSP 585) percentage points during 2030–2040 to 0.05 ± 0.01–0.15 ± 0.04 percentage points during 2050–2060. By 2060, the expected global economic losses reach a total of 0.6–4.6% with losses attributed to health loss (37–45%), labour productivity loss (18–37%) and i

Rapid ocean warming and unusually hot winter days recorded as human-made global heating combines with El Niño

Marine heat waves will become a regular occurrence in the Arctic in the near future and are a product of higher anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions, according to a study just released by Dr. Armineh Barkhordarian from Universität Hamburg's Cluster of Excellence for climate research CLICCS. Since 2007, conditions in the Arctic have shifted, as confirmed by data recently published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment. Between 2007 and 2021, the marginal zones of the Arctic Ocean experienced 11 marine heat waves, producing an average temperature rise of 2.2 degrees Celsius above seasonal norm and lasting an average of 37 days. Since 2015, there have been Arctic marine heat waves every year.

James Hansen says limit will be passed ‘for all practical purposes’ by May though other experts predict that will happen in 2030s

The effect of increasing the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on global average surface air temperature might be expected to be constant, but this is not the case. A study published in the journal Science shows that carbon dioxide becomes a more potent greenhouse gas as more is released into the atmosphere.

Crise énergétique, hausse des prix,… faire des économies sur sa consommation de chauffage et d’électricité est une priorité pour de nombreux ménages. Pour éviter les factures trop salées, plusieurs solutions existent. Les chercheurs des universités de Bruxelles et de Louvain ont mis au point une astuce infaillible pour diminuer drastiquement sa consommation d’énergie sans pour autant se laisser mourir de froid : le Slow Heat. De quoi s’agit-il ? Que faut-il faire ? Le Slow Heat, la solution pour demain ? Les réponses dans Tendances Première.

World Meteorological Organization sees ‘no end in sight to the rising trend’, largely driven by fossil fuel burning

www.slowheat.org

Heatwaves, wildfires and floods are just the ‘tip of the iceberg’, leading climate scientists say

More than 1 billion cows around the world will experience heat stress by the end of the century if carbon emissions are high and environmental protection is low, according to new research published in Environmental Research Letters. This would mean cattle farming would face potentially lethal heat stress in much of the world, including Central America, tropical South America, Equatorial Africa, and South and Southeast Asia.

Human-caused climate disruption and El Niño push temperature in mountains to 37C

Antarctica’s sea ice levels are plummeting as extreme weather events happen faster than scientists predicted

It’s the middle of winter in South America, but that hasn’t kept the heat away in Chile, Argentina and surrounding locations. Multiple spells of oddly hot weather have roasted the region in recent weeks. The latest spell early this week has become the most intense, pushing the mercury above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, while setting an August record for Chile.

The baby boomer dream of tanning on the beach is fading as temperatures rise. We are going to have to reinvent July and August.

Following a record hot June, large areas of the US and Mexico, Southern Europe and China experienced extreme heat in July 2023, breaking many local high temperature records.

After hottest day ever, researchers say global heating may mean future of crop failures on land and ‘silent dying’ in the oceans

Energy firms have made record profits by increasing production of oil and gas, far from their promises of rolling back emissions

Three brush fires burning in rural areas across Riverside county, where 1,000 homes are under evacuation orders

A new climate case was filed this week. Multnomah County, the Oregon county that includes Portland, filed suit against several oil majors for their role in exacerbating the climate change that led to the county's "heat dome" in June 2021, which killed 69 people. But the case doesn't just place

Major fossil fuel entities and trade associations including Koch Industries, the American Petroleum Institute, and the Western States Petroleum Association, as well as consulting behemoth McKinsey & Company, were slapped with the latest climate liability lawsuit today with the filing of a complaint in the Oregon Circuit Court in Multnomah County, Oregon.

It’s not that our models can’t simulate small-scale weather – they’re basically the same models we use for weather forecasting – it’s just very computationally expensive to have them zoom in and run in “weather mode” to get a highly detailed simulation.

Mexico and the Caribbean are experiencing the most intense heatwave in their recorded history. The Mexican Plateau is being seared by harsh dry heat, while the Caribbean contends with deadly humid temperatures. On June 12, 2023, the mercury soared above 45 °C (113 °F) in several areas, including regions of high altitude. The city of Torreón, sitting at 1 123 m (3 684 feet) above sea level, saw temperatures rise to 43.3 °C (109.94 °F) on June 12, while Durango Airport, located at 1 872 m (6 142 feet) altitude, experienced 40.4 °C (104.72 °F) heat. La Bufa, perched even higher at 2 612 m (8 570 feet) above sea level, broke all-time records with a temperature of 33.4 °C (92.12 °F).

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World is on track for 2.7C and ‘phenomenal’ human suffering, scientists warn. Up to 1 billion people could choose to migrate to cooler places, the scientists said, although those areas remaining within the climate niche would still experience more frequent heatwaves and droughts. However, urgent action to lower carbon emissions and keep global temperature rise to 1.5C would cut the number of people pushed outside the climate niche by 80%, to 400 million.

Record sea surface temperatures suggest the Earth is headed for ‘uncharted territory’ in terms of sea level rise, coastal flooding and extreme weather