Articles 2020

Economic assumptions about risks of the climate crisis are no longer relevant, says the communications expert Genevieve Guenther

The world has been too optimistic about the risk to humanity and planet – but devastation can still be avoided, says Timothy Lenton

Despite working on polar science for the British Antarctic Survey for 20 years, Louise Sime finds the magnitude of potential sea-level rise hard to comprehend

Tipping elements within the Earth system are increasingly well understood. Scientists have identified more than 25 parts of the Earth’s climate system that are likely to have “tipping points” – thresholds where a small additional change in global warming will cause them to irreversibly shift into a new state. The “tipping” of these systems – which include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the Greenland ice sheet – would have profound consequences for both the biosphere and people. More recent research suggests that triggering one tipping element could cause subsequent changes in other tipping elements, potentially leading to a “tipping cascade”. For example, a collapsed AMOC could lead to dieback of the Amazon rainforest and hasten the melt of the Greenland ice sheet.

Lenton, the founding director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, was the lead author of the 2008 paper that formally introduced the idea of tipping points in the Earth’s climate system.

Thousands of Greenland's crystal-clear blue lakes have turned a murky brown thanks to global warming — and the worst part is that they've started emitting carbon dioxide. Record heat and rain in 2022 pushed the lakes of West Greenland past a tipping point, so rather than absorbing carbon dioxide (CO₂), they began to emit it into the atmosphere, according to a new study.

De metafoor van het 'tipping point' of 'kantelpunt' is contraproductief in de context van de klimaatopwarming, argumenteert een groep wetenschappers in het vakblad Nature. Het concept kan mensen in verwarring brengen en actie in de weg staan, denken de onderzoekers.

Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why Amoc breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life

Small increase in temperature of intruding water could lead to very big increase in loss of ice, scientists say

An international team of scientists has warned against relying on nature providing straightforward 'early warning' indicators of a climate disaster, as new mathematical modeling shows new fascinating aspects of the complexity of the dynamics of climate. It suggests that the climate system could be more unpredictable than previously thought.

Scientists now have a better understanding of the risks ahead and a new early warning signal to watch for.

Collapse in system of currents that helps regulate global climate would be at such speed that adaptation would be impossible

Cruciale kantelpunten in het klimaatsysteem van de aarde komen in sneltempo dichterbij. Dat blijkt uit het grootste onderzoek ooit naar “tipping points”. Meer dan tweehonderd wetenschappers werkten mee aan een tekst met waarschuwingen en aanbevelingen, die is gepresenteerd op de klimaattop in Dubai (COP28).

Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass displacement and financial ruin as planet warms

Extreme milieufenomenen zoals bosbranden en droogtes zetten ecosystemen zodanig onder druk dat ze steeds moeilijker terug evenwicht vinden. Dat leidt dan tot een zogeheten tipping point voor ecologisch verval. En die kantelpunten komen steeds sneller, zegt een nieuwe studie in Nature.

Amazon rainforest and other ecosystems could collapse ‘very soon’, researchers warn

Vast releases of gas, along with future ‘methane bombs’, represent huge threat – but curbing emissions would rapidly reduce global heating

By replacing thousands of equations with just one, ecology modelers can more accurately assess how close fragile environments are to a disastrous “tipping point.”

Three “super-tipping points” for climate action could trigger a cascade of decarbonisation across the global economy, according to a report. Relatively small policy interventions on electric cars, plant-based alternatives to meat and green fertilisers would lead to unstoppable growth in those sectors, the experts said. But the boost this would give to battery and hydrogen production would mean crucial knock-on benefits for other sectors including energy storage and aviation.

Le rythme actuel de réchauffement pourrait déclencher plusieurs « points de bascule » planétaires : des changements abrupts et irréversibles du système climatique. Les chercheurs Aurélien Boutaud et Natacha Gondran nous expliquent pourquoi.