Flux continu

New report predicts a heavy toll from Nigeria to the US – and comes on top of existing impacts of the climate crisis

One of the biggest upheavals in a millennium is on its way, strengthened by the climate crisis. We need leaders who make things better not worse

Climate models simulate a wide range of 21st century warming for a given forcing scenario. Constraining this uncertainty is a central challenge in climate science because of its implications for climate policy and adaptation. The Transient Climate Response (TCR) is a key idealized metric used to quantify future warming in response to an exponentially increasing CO2 concentration. Climate models span a range of 1.3–3 K for TCR. In attempts to constrain this range, emergent constraints on TCR based on historical temperature trends consistently pointed towards TCR values at the lower end of the range of models. However, recent evidence from trends in the short-wave and long-wave components of Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) at the top-of-atmosphere suggests that models with higher TCR lie closer to the observed EEI trends. Here, we reconcile this discrepancy and provide a revised range for TCR of 1.9–2.6 K. Using a statistical variability-filtering approach, we show that previous temperature-based constraints we

Neuf communes belges font partie des villes lauréates du programme international "Youth Climate Action Fund" de Bloomberg Philanthropies. Chacune d’elles recevra 34.000 euros pour soutenir des jeunes de 15 à 24 ans dans la mise en place et la réalisation, à l’échelle locale, de projets concrets liés au climat et au développement durable.

Exclusive: As wildfires rage, Frank Elderson says more work needed to assess risk from collapse of ecosystem services

Emerging climate extremes should draw public attention to human-caused climate change. We expect unusual sea surface temperature (SST) and global warming the rest of this year to make 2026 hotter than 2024, despite 2024 being a peak El Nino year, while 2026 is only the lead-in year of an emerging El Nino. Beware the “surprise” record high being blamed on an extreme El Nino on top of global warming otherwise consistent with IPCC estimates. Instead, record warmth provides additional evidence of high climate sensitivity and increased net climate forcing in the past decade. These two factors are driving an unusual increase in global SSTs with major consequences. If you bear with our discussion to the end, you will find some possible good news. Figures in this post are continually updated on our website.[2] We are now on Substack[3].

Daily Sea Surface Temperature

Closed-door talks over the World Bank’s climate agenda have stalled, as the US pushes to scrap green targets and expand support for fossil fuels

Climate scientists warn of unprecedented Antarctic heatwave, with temperatures 20C above normal. Loss of sea ice threatens marine life and penguins.

Scientists know how to alter our atmosphere to try and fix climate change, but doing so could bring other potential unintended impacts