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attribution
Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, France and Morocco experienced extreme heat in July 2024, causing at least 23 fatalities, widespread wildfires and bringing public life to a hold.
The floods displaced more than 80,000 people, led to over 150,000 being injured and, on the 29th of May, to 169 fatalities with 44 people still missing (Governo do Estado de Rio Grande do Sul, 2024). Essential services were also disrupted, leaving 418,200 households without electricity and over a million consumer units without water. Dozens of municipalities lost telephone and internet services.
Le changement climatique d’origine humaine modifie la probabilité de survenue de nombreux phénomènes météorologiques. Et il est possible de relier l’effet d’un réchauffement sur le temps long à des événements isolés.
De extreme hittegolven deze maand in grote delen van de VS, Zuid-Europa en China zouden ‘vrijwel onmogelijk’ geweest zijn zonder de door de mens veroorzaakte klimaatverandering. Dat is de conclusie van het World Weather Attribution-initiatief (WWA).
The method used to conduct an attribution study consists of eight steps, described here. The first step is the selection of an extreme event to study. After selecting an extreme weather event to study, the first step is to define the event, which provides a framework for the study. Researchers determine the geographical boundaries of the most impacted area, the best index to quantify the meteorological extreme (eg. maximum temperature, average rainfall, etc), and the duration of the event.
EN
Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change
(25/07) - World Weather AttributionFollowing a record hot June, large areas of the US and Mexico, Southern Europe and China experienced extreme heat in July 2023, breaking many local high temperature records.
Sans le savoir, vous avez peut-être déjà entendu parler de la science de l’attribution par les unes des journaux : “En 2022, le changement climatique a rendu les canicules meurtrières en Inde et Pakistan 30 fois plus probables“. Ou encore “Une étude confirme que la vague de chaleur qui frappe l’Inde et le Pakistan depuis début mars a été rendue trente fois plus probable par le changement climatique“.
Un guide sur l’attribution pour les journalistes - traduction
Some two dozen climate liability suits have been making their way through the courts since 2015, bolstered by media investigations and attribution studies that are able to accurately pinpoint the precise contribution climate change has made to the damages inflicted by extreme weather events. A 2021 study in the journal Nature, for example, found that just over $8bn (£7bn) of the $62.7bn (£55.3bn) in damages caused by Superstorm Sandy across New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, is attributable to sea-level rise caused by climate change.
Le Pakistan a subi pendant de longs mois des inondations meurtrières. Il est désormais courant d'attribuer ces événements extrêmes au changement climatique. Mais s'il est certain que ce dernier augmente leur intensité et leur fréquence, il est plus difficile d'attribuer directement tel événement au changement climatique, notamment quand il s'agit de précipitations, qui résultent généralement de plusieurs facteurs. C'est ce à quoi s’attelle la science de l'attribution, née en 2004, et qui est de plus en plus sollicitée.
Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and the harms experienced on the ground by people, property, and nature. It therefore allows the disentangling of different drivers of extreme weather from human-induced climate change and hence provides valuable information to adapt to climate change and to assess loss and damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out of reach. This is due to limitations in attribution science, including the capacity for studying different types of events, as well as the geographical heterogeneity of both climate and impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge of the influences of climate change on five different extreme weather hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), the impacts of recent extreme weather events of each type, and thus the degree to which various impacts are attributable to climate change.
À chaque événement météorologique extrême, c'est la même interrogation : le réchauffement climatique est-il responsable ? Pour répondre à cette question, un nouveau champ de la science se dessine : la science de l'attribution. Entretien avec Robert Vautard, membre du World Weather Attribution.
Since the beginning of March, India and Pakistan and large parts of South Asia experienced prolonged heat, that at the time of writing, May 2022, still hasn’t subsided.
Une nouvelle étude du World Weather Attribution, qui travaille sur l’attribution des événements climatiques extrêmes, estime que l’épisode de fournaise dans le sous-continent indien «aurait été extraordinairement rare» dans le passé.
Comment faire le lien entre des événements météorologiques extrêmes récents et le dérèglement climatique global causé par les activités humaines ? Entretien avec le chercheur au CNRS Robert Vautard, membre du réseau World Weather Attribution.
All available evidence taken together, including physical understanding, observations over a larger region and different regional climate models give high confidence that human-induced climate change has increased the likelihood and intensity of such an event to occur and these changes will continue in a rapidly warming climate
Whenever an extreme weather or climate-related event occurs, the media and decision-makers ask the question to what extent it is influenced by climate change. For a few years now the scientific community has been able to answer that question for relatively simple extremes: hot and cold extremes, extreme precipitation and drought. This emerging field of climate science is called Extreme Event Attribution ...
During the last days of June 2021, Pacific northwest areas of the U.S. and Canada experienced temperatures never previously observed, with records broken in many places by several degrees Celsius.
In our latest study, scientists from France, Germany, Netherlands, and the UK collaborated to examine whether and to what extent human-induced climate change had a part to play in the cold early April following a very warm March 2021 that led to large scale frost damages in grapevines and fruit trees in central France.
Climate Accountability Institute releases treasure trove of data on fossil fuel company operational and product-related emissions. "Our vision is for a world protected from the social, economic, and environmental damages of climate change."