Sélection du moment:
De metafoor van het 'tipping point' of 'kantelpunt' is contraproductief in de context van de klimaatopwarming, argumenteert een groep wetenschappers in het vakblad Nature. Het concept kan mensen in verwarring brengen en actie in de weg staan, denken de onderzoekers.
Franchir les points de bascule écologiques aurait un coût économique gigantesque, selon plusieurs études scientifiques récentes. Des données qui rappellent l’urgence d’atténuer la crise écologique avant d’être face à des conséquences irréversibles en cascade.
Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why Amoc breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life
We're nearly halfway through the 2020s, dubbed the most decisive decade for action on climate change. Where exactly do things stand? Climate impact scholar Johan Rockström offers the most up-to-date scientific assessment of the state of the planet and explains what must be done to preserve Earth's resilience to human pressure.
Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements.
Nous voici arrivés à la moitié de la décennie 2020, celle qui est censée être décisive pour l'action contre le changement climatique. Mais où en sommes-nous exactement ? Johan Rockström est un universitaire spécialisé dans l'impact climatique. Il nous présente l'évaluation scientifique la plus récente sur l'état de notre planète et explique ce que nous devons faire pour préserver la résilience de la Terre face à la pression humaine.
Small increase in temperature of intruding water could lead to very big increase in loss of ice, scientists say
For many of us the climate crisis mainly calls to mind rising global temperatures, but the crisis goes far beyond this – we are at risk of pushing our planet across climate ‘tipping points,’ critical thresholds where small changes can lead to abrupt and irreversible shifts in the Earth’s climate system. One major element in climate tipping is a huge system of ocean currents, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is responsible for Europe's relatively mild climate. Past climate patterns show that these currents can switch abruptly between today’s vigorous flow and a much weaker flow state. A future shutdown would have potentially devastating consequences in Europe and around the world.
An international team of scientists has warned against relying on nature providing straightforward 'early warning' indicators of a climate disaster, as new mathematical modeling shows new fascinating aspects of the complexity of the dynamics of climate. It suggests that the climate system could be more unpredictable than previously thought.
RealClimate: A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: "Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course." The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals for approaching an AMOC tipping point (we discussed it here),
Scientists now have a better understanding of the risks ahead and a new early warning signal to watch for.
Collapse in system of currents that helps regulate global climate would be at such speed that adaptation would be impossible
Cruciale kantelpunten in het klimaatsysteem van de aarde komen in sneltempo dichterbij. Dat blijkt uit het grootste onderzoek ooit naar “tipping points”. Meer dan tweehonderd wetenschappers werkten mee aan een tekst met waarschuwingen en aanbevelingen, die is gepresenteerd op de klimaattop in Dubai (COP28).
Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass displacement and financial ruin as planet warms
Take part in the new scientific discussion about looming abrupt changes in the Earth system. This new webinar series invites scientists interested in tipping elements and the broader public to attend.
Extreme milieufenomenen zoals bosbranden en droogtes zetten ecosystemen zodanig onder druk dat ze steeds moeilijker terug evenwicht vinden. Dat leidt dan tot een zogeheten tipping point voor ecologisch verval. En die kantelpunten komen steeds sneller, zegt een nieuwe studie in Nature.
Amazon rainforest and other ecosystems could collapse ‘very soon’, researchers warn
Vast releases of gas, along with future ‘methane bombs’, represent huge threat – but curbing emissions would rapidly reduce global heating
By replacing thousands of equations with just one, ecology modelers can more accurately assess how close fragile environments are to a disastrous “tipping point.”
The Global Tipping Points Report was launched at COP28 on 6 December 2023. The report is an authoritative assessment of the risks and opportunities of both negative and positive tipping points in the Earth system and society. Global Tipping Points is led by Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute with the support of more than 200 researchers from over 90 organisations in 26 countries.
Three “super-tipping points” for climate action could trigger a cascade of decarbonisation across the global economy, according to a report. Relatively small policy interventions on electric cars, plant-based alternatives to meat and green fertilisers would lead to unstoppable growth in those sectors, the experts said. But the boost this would give to battery and hydrogen production would mean crucial knock-on benefits for other sectors including energy storage and aviation.
Le rythme actuel de réchauffement pourrait déclencher plusieurs « points de bascule » planétaires : des changements abrupts et irréversibles du système climatique. Les chercheurs Aurélien Boutaud et Natacha Gondran nous expliquent pourquoi.
A recent paper suggested damaging climate tipping points could be closer than first thought.
Governments and businesses failing to change fast enough, says United in Science report, as weather gets increasingly extreme. Despite intensifying warnings in recent years, governments and businesses have not been changing fast enough, according to the United in Science report published on Tuesday. The consequences are already being seen in increasingly extreme weather around the world, and we are in danger of provoking “tipping points” in the climate system that will mean more rapid and in some cases irreversible shifts.
Giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost regions may already have passed point of irreversible change
As Nobel laureate Solow said to Congress when criticizingeconomicmodelsforfailingtoanticipatethe“GreatReces-sion,” “Every proposition has to pass a smell test: Does itreally make sense?” (2). The methods and conclusions inDietzetal.(1)donotmakesense. ...
Anthropogenic activities are increasingly affecting ecosystems across the globe. Meanwhile, empirical and theoretical evidence suggest that natural systems can exhibit abrupt collapses in response to incremental increases in the stressors, sometimes with dramatic ecological and economic consequences. These catastrophic shifts are faster and larger than expected from the changes in the stressors and happen once a tipping point is crossed.
Climate tipping points in the Antarctica, the Arctic and the Amazon are at risk of being reached before or at the current level of global warming of 1.2 degrees Celsius, requiring a “major rethink” of global climate goals and the action necessary to achieve them, according to a recent report.
More than three-quarters of the world's largest rainforest has become less resilient to drought since the early 2000s, with areas near humans and with lower rainfall being the worst hit
Emerging ice-sheet modeling suggests once initiated, retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) can continue for centuries. Unfortunately, the short observational record cannot resolve the tipping points, rate of change, and timescale of responses. Iceberg-rafted debris data from Iceberg Alley identify eight retreat phases after the Last Glacial Maximum that each destabilized the AIS within a decade, contributing to global sea-level rise for centuries to a millennium, which subsequently re-stabilized equally rapidly.