Articles 2020

We can’t know how long the war in the Middle East will last. Nor can we know who will “win” it, and in which terms. What we know is that the destruction already wreaked on things and people is immense, and it keeps escalating. The longer the war, the bleaker their perspectives in a region already plagued by all sorts of problems, including drought, soil degradation, ecosystem damage, scarce agricultural resources, declining fertility rates, and more.

Energie-onafhankelijkheid is noodzakelijk, willen we niet langer de speelbal van buitenlandse dictators zijn.

Le philosophe de l'environnement Rupert Read dit à Ella Whelan la panéliste Moral Maze pourquoi nous ne pourrons peut-être plus profiter du même niveau de vie pour le bien de la planète et des générations futures.

There is mounting experimental evidence that lifetime exposure to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels can negatively impact the normal physiology of organisms. Directly assessing this in humans is very difficult. We analysed serum bicarbonate (HCO3−), calcium (Ca) and phosphorus (P) from 1999 to 2020 as indirect proxies for atmospheric CO2 exposure. Over this period, average bicarbonate levels in this population show an increasing trend which parallels rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Both. If these trends continue, blood bicarbonate values could be at the limit of the accepted healthy range in half a century, and Ca and P will be at the limit of their healthy ranges by the end of this century. This has the potential to cause a range of adverse health effects.

Science-based policies could successfully limit human-caused climate change, but when political parties are allowed to accept money from special interests, policies are distorted to the point of being ineffective. This is a solvable problem, but to clarify the situation and the needed actions, we need to first marshal the evidence. The draft Prologue of Sophie’s Planet is intended to help coherently organize the evidence. Here is Part III of V, with the final two paragraphs of Part II.

Three major Defence Agencies are quietly admitting what most still refuse to face: climate breakdown is coming for our food, and the cracks are already spreading. While the wealthy cling to logistics and illusion, the real defence strategy is soil and local growers who refuse to let their communities starve.

Au lendemain de la publication par le ministère américain de la Justice de trois millions de documents supplémentaires concernant Jeffrey Epstein, plusieurs personnalités sont citées : Donald Trump, Bill Gates ou encore Elon Musk. France 24 fait le point sur ce qui est dit sur ces personnalités de premier plan.

“Water crisis” has become the default label for almost any episode of water stress, from short-lived droughts to decades-long overuse of rivers and aquifers. Yet in many regions of the world, water problems no longer resemble a crisis in the conventional sense. They represent a post-crisis failure state in which human–water systems have exceeded their hydrological carrying capacities, and societies have spent beyond their sustainable hydrological budgets for so long that critical water assets are depleted, some ecosystem damages are irreversible on human time scales, and a return to “normal” is infeasible even with prohibitive economic, social, and environmental costs.

Vous écoutez Les éclaireurs invisibles par Nature et Progrès, le podcast qui incarne le changement pour un mieux, que ce soit des associations, des agriculteurs, des chercheurs.Notre ambition est de révéler les acteurs dans une réalité positive pour susciter un basculement de société. […] Aujourd'hui, nous recevons Céline Bertrand, experte en santé publique au sein de la cellule Environnement Santé de la Société Scientifique de Médecine Générale.

It has the world's largest reserves, produces comparatively little, and has a type of oil that the US needs. […] Over the weekend, the United States bombed Venezuela, and captured its president Nicolás Maduro. There has been a lot of speculation about the legality, true motive and implications going forward. Oil has been a central part of the discussion. I wanted to get a quick overview of what the global picture looks like. So here are five(ish) simple charts that give some context on the history of oil in Venezuela, and why the United States — which is, by far, the world’s largest producer itself — would care so much.

Perception, pattern-seeking, and the role of neurodivergence in a failing civilisation

The global collapse arrives piecemeal. Germany is going first.

Je dis toujours que les modèles ne sont pas des prédictions, mais des illustrations qualitatives de ce que pourrait être l’avenir. Cependant, à mesure que l’avenir se rapproche du présent, les modèles peuvent commencer à être considérés comme des outils prédictifs. Il s’agit de la dichotomie entre météo et climat, si habilement exploitée par les politiciens pour semer la confusion dans les débats sur le climat. À l’heure actuelle, nous nous rapprochons du point où nous pourrions prévoir un effondrement de la même manière que nous pouvons prévoir la trajectoire d’une tempête tropicale.

I always say that models are not predictions; they are qualitative illustrations of what the future could be. But as the future gets closer to the present, models can start being seen as predictive tools. It is the weather/climate dichotomy, so aptly exploited to confuse matters by politically minded people in the discussion about climate. Right now, we are getting close to the point that we could forecast a collapse in the same way as we can forecast the trajectory of a tropical storm. So, you remember how “The Limits to Growth” generated a long term forecast in 1972. Here it is

The reality of coming to terms with the end of industrial civilisation

On dénombre plus de 2.000 affaires judiciaires liées au changement climatique dans le monde. Des citoyen·nes, en ce compris des agriculteur·ices, investissent les tribunaux pour demander des comptes aux entreprises privées les plus polluantes. Exemple en Belgique avec Hugues Falys, qui attaquent TotalEnergies en justice. Ou Saul Luciano Lliuya, qui, depuis les Andes péruviennes, poursuit la multinationale RWE. Une démarche pertinente à plus d’un titre, mais qui tient du combat de David contre Goliath.

A l’occasion de la campagne des municipales, Trois degrés lance un cycle d’articles sur l’adaptation climatique au niveau local. Pour ouvrir ce cycle, nous publions un grand entretien avec Alexandre Florentin, élu local à Paris et spécialiste des questions d’adaptation au changement climatique.

Le climatologue Christophe Cassou écrit qu’à la fin du prochain mandat, un été type 2003 aura une chance sur dix de se produire. Trois mandats plus tard, ce sera quasiment un été normal. Que peut-on raisonnablement faire en un mandat ?

Malgré l’accumulation de preuves scientifiques sur les dangers des pesticides, la Wallonie peine à agir : pourquoi ce décalage entre alertes sanitaires et décisions politiques ? Céline Bertrand, spécialiste en santé environnementale qui participe à la formation des médecins généralistes, dénonce un aveuglement. Elle implore d’arrêter de « tourner autour du pot ».

Dans une interview accordée au média The Economist, Steve K. Bannon a évoqué la possibilité pour Trump de redevenir président en 2028. Le 22eamendement de la Constitution américaine interdit pourtant de faire plus de deux mandats. Selon l'ancien conseiller de Donald Trump, il existe plusieurs alternatives possibles pour contourner cet amendement. Il évoque même "un plan" qui sera "dévoilé au moment opportun". The Economist précise tout de même qu'on ne sait pas si Steve Bannon a réellement parlé de ce projet avec le président américain. La Maison Blanche, de son côté, n'a pas encore réagi.

A California outfit has used artificial intelligence to design viral genomes before they were then built and tested in a laboratory. Following this, bacteria was then successfully infected with a number of these AI-created viruses, proving that generative models can create functional genetics. "The first generative design of complete genomes." That's what researchers at Stanford University and the Arc Institute in Palo Alto called the results of these experiments. A biologist at NYU Langone Health, Jef Boeke, celebrated the experiment as a substantial step towards AI-designed lifeforms, according to MIT Technology Review. "They saw viruses with new genes, with truncated genes, and even different gene orders and arrangements," Boeke said.

Pourquoi le comportement de Donald Trump n'est pas seulement alarmant – il est clinique…

This is not a call to despair, but an invitation to understand the forces driving the process of collapse, and to explore how we might navigate the descent with integrity, purpose, and care for the living world.

Passing 1.5ºC is now inevitable. Overshoot scenarios tell us that we can relatively safely pass this level but then bring temperatures back down again, but how realistic are they, and how safe?

Anthropogenic activities are increasing the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. There is mounting experimental evidence that lifetime exposure to these increasing atmospheric CO2 levels can negatively impact the normal physiology of organisms. However, directly assessing this in humans is very difficult. We analysed serum bicarbonate (HCO3−), calcium (Ca) and phosphorus (P) levels from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2020 as indirect proxies for atmospheric CO2 exposure. Over this period, average bicarbonate levels in this population show an increasing trend which parallels rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Both Ca and Phave decreased steadily over the same period. If these trends continue, blood bicarbonate values could be at the limit of the accepted healthy range in half a century, and Ca and P will be at the limit of their healthy ranges by the end of this century. Studies indicate that, after this time, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide

Consumers ending up shouldering most of the costs of installing and operating CCS in the UK, a new report has found.

Interview with CBC: "If we had done it we would have saved billions of dollars and many many countless lives and we didn't do anything" "We have elevated economics and politics above science"

À cause de la destruction des espaces de vie, de la (sur)pêche et des pesticides, 73% des vertébrés sauvages ont été exterminés en 54 ans et 67% des arthropodes (dont les insectes) en 10 ans. Quant au climat, le seuil des 1,5°C a été franchi en 2024 – augurant un emballement brutal et irréversible. Cette limite planétaire est en conséquence largement dépassée, à l’instar de 5 autres (parmi les 9 qui ont été identifiées) : artificialisation des sols, pollution, perturbation des cycles biogéochimiques de l’azote et du phosphore, altération du cycle de l’eau douce et effondrement de la » biodiversité ». Pour quelle raison, alors que nous mettons en œuvre des actions écologiques depuis 50 ans, notre situation (celle du vivant en général) ne cesse d’empirer ?

À cause de la destruction des espaces de vie, de la (sur)pêche et des pesticides, 73% des vertébrés sauvages ont été exterminés en 54 ans2 et 67% des arthropodes (dont les insectes) en 10 ans3. Quant au climat, le seuil des 1,5°C a été franchi en 20244 – augurant un emballement brutal et irréversible. Cette limite planétaire est en conséquence largement dépassée, à l'instar de 5 autres (parmi les 9 qui ont été identifiées5) : artificialisation des sols, pollution, perturbation des cycles biogéochimiques de l'azote et du phosphore, altération du cycle de l'eau douce et effondrement de la « biodiversité ».

I am writing this message to the millions of people who have been involved in the climate movement over the past several years. This movement has been an incredible force, thanks to your courage, passion and commitment. It has created a new public consciousness and a powerful sense of popular will. These are major achievements. And yet it is clear that we have now reached an impasse and a new path is needed.

– how climate scientists and the IPCC still won’t tell the truth about accelerating climate change.

SO2 declines have contributed ~25% of recent warming and driven recent acceleration. The impact of additional SO2 emissions on cloud formation diminishes as emissions increase, meaning that reductions in SO2 over areas with low background sulphate concentrations, such as the ocean, could result in a proportionately larger warming effect than in highly polluted areas, such as south Asia.

Fifteen years ago, smack in the middle of Barack Obama's first term, amid the rapid rise of social media and a slow recovery from the Great Recession, a professor at the University of Connecticut issued a stark warning: the United States was heading into a decade of growing political instability.

Ten kinds of possible collapses examined.

What are the most significant groups in this complex network of our emergent ‘collapse culture’? These groups don’t cohere into a single unified culture that understands itself as singular. Instead, the are thinly connected inside the complex of contemporary culture, a set of linked clusters. Between them, ideas do circulate, but the links between them, as I will return to, are more often established through intermixing in the heads of their proponents, however chaotically this takes place.....

Le récit dominant des politiques climatiques a pour présupposé qu’il est possible de résoudre la crise sans toucher à la façon dont nous avons configuré le capitalisme. On pourrait avoir la croissance économique et la préservation des écosystèmes. Dans cette approche, le climat — c’est la même chose pour la biodiversité — est nettement incisé du contexte socioéconomique pour devenir une pure question géophysique....

On Monday House Republicans released the final parts of their proposed tax and budget bill — and it’s the stuff of nightmares. As Bobby Kogan of the Center for American Progress documents, the bill would impose the largest cuts to Medicaid and SNAP — the program formerly known as food stamps — in history. Millions of low-income Americans would lose health coverage; millions would go hungry. Many of those suffering would be children.

Cette semaine, les franges libérales des élites américaines nous avertissent : elles vont continuer à lancer des excréments sur le reste du monde...

It is said that George W. Bush Jr. decided to invade Iraq in 2003 because he had read some papers on oil depletion by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). Of course, it may be just a legend, but I don’t see it as impossible, and perhaps not even improbable. Politicians make decisions on the basis of vague ideas, often on the spur of the moment, and in many cases making terrible mistakes. But they normally understand some of the critical elements that keep alive the system. For the US, the critical resource was, and still is, crude oil. So, it is possible that Bush thought that it was necessary to compensate for the decline of the US oil production by seizing the Iraqi resources. That didn’t necessarily imply to start a war, just like filling the tank of your car doesn’t imply shooting dead the service station operator. But that’s the way some people’s minds work.

Opinion | The latest floods, wildfires, and other disasters reveal the flaws of adaptation as the main response to climate change.