Articles 2020

Nous vivons une époque étrange. Jamais l’humanité n’a disposé d’autant de connaissances, de technologies, de capacités de calcul et de moyens d’action sur le monde. Et pourtant, rarement avons-nous semblé aussi démunis lorsqu’il s’agit de décider collectivement où nous voulons aller.

Climate models simulate a wide range of 21st century warming for a given forcing scenario. Constraining this uncertainty is a central challenge in climate science because of its implications for climate policy and adaptation. The transient climate response (TCR) is a key idealized metric used to quantify future warming in response to an exponentially increasing CO2 concentration. Climate models span a range of 1.3–3 K for TCR. In attempts to constrain this range, emergent constraints on TCR based on historical temperature trends consistently pointed toward TCR values at the lower end of the range of models. However, recent evidence from trends in the short-wave and long-wave components of Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) at the top-of-atmosphere suggests that models with higher TCR lie closer to the observed EEI trends. Here, we reconcile this discrepancy and provide a revised range for TCR of 1.9–2.6 K. Using a statistical variability-filtering approach, we show that previous temperature-based constraints wer

Le président russe Vladimir Poutine pourrait tenter, dans les années à venir, de tester la détermination de l'alliance militaire en lançant une attaque de faible ampleur contre un pays membre de l'OTAN. C'est ce qu'indiquent de nouveaux rapports des services de renseignement américains, rapporte le Wall Street Journal.

Members of parliament have demanded full publication of an explosive report by the UK’s spy leaders that found the collapse of ecosystems overseas would have catastrophic consequences for the UK’s national security, warning that the UK has “no future” if the findings are not urgently acted on.

The concepts of Green Growth and Degrowth represent two major narratives in the public and academic debate on socio-ecological transformation. . . Using a comparative analysis of the two research fields, we confirm several findings from previous reviews, including that Green Growth research is highly policy oriented, focuses on practical implementation and builds on empirical research methods, while Degrowth research is highly theory-driven, focuses on the analysis of complex human-nature interrelationships and builds on a sound theoretical and conceptual foundation. Our analysis further reveals that Green Growth and Degrowth are two rather isolated fields of research with little exchange and mutual reference on related topics. However, the topic of social change and transition represents an intersecting and promising future research area. . . .

La Conférence interministérielle (CIM) Santé, réunie ce mercredi, "tire les leçons" de la dernière vague de chaleur qu’a connue la Belgique et propose de nouvelles mesures prioritaires pour mieux affronter les futurs épisodes de ce type. L’instance qui rassemble les différents ministres de la Santé l’a annoncé mercredi dans un communiqué.

La Province de Namur vient d'annoncer avoir débloqué un budget de 350.000 euros, via la Fondation René Close, afin de lancer un projet ambitieux visant à développer des modèles d'ilots de fraîcheur. À terme, ces modèles devraient être implantés dans les 38 communes de la province de Namur.

Note éditoriale : Cet article, publié en septembre 2025, a été remis à jour le 24 juin 2026. Pour la deuxième fois...

Het KMI start het project 'Tales of Future Weather', dat klimaatwetenschap omzet naar concrete scenario’s van extreem weer zoals hitte, droogte en hevige neerslag. Zo worden de gevolgen van klimaatverandering tastbaar en kunnen we ons beter voorbereiden. Het project benadrukt dat burgers zelfredzamer moeten worden. "Er komt heel wat op ons af."

L’acide trifluoroacétique aussi appelé TFA est un tout petit PFAS, extrêmement stable et donc particulièrement persistant dans l’environnement. Comme il est très mobile et très soluble dans l’eau, il se retrouve dans tous les milieux. En outre, les procédés habituels de traitement de l’eau potable ne peuvent pas éliminer le TFA.

When major new climate change scenarios are released, there’s always strong interest. These scenarios lay out what our future climate will look like, depending on how fast we act to cut emissions.

Pendant sept ans, la réalisatrice Helena Molin a filmé une douzaine d’adolescents à l’origine de la création, en 2018, du mouvement Fridays for Future. Un documentaire encensé par la critique.

Notre affaire à tous, Générations futures, Bloom et plusieurs particuliers attaquent l’Etat devant le tribunal administratif de Paris pour tenter de faire reconnaître sa responsabilité dans le scandale de la contamination aux polluants éternels.

Climate models show considerable discrepancies in their future projections around the Atlantic, mainly due to uncertainties in the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Climate models suggest a reduction in AMOC strength of 32 ± 37% by 2100 (90% probability, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 scenario, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6). To refine this estimate and reduce its uncertainty, we use four different observational constraint methods. The best one, which provides the lowest leave-one-out error, integrates a large set of observable variables using ridge-regularized linear regression—a method unusual in climate science. It gives an estimate of the AMOC slowdown of 51 ± 8% (90% probability), i.e., a weakening ∼ 60% stronger than suggested by the multimodel mean. This refinement mainly results from correcting a bias in South Atlantic surface salinity, consistent with recent studies emphasizing its role in the proximity to an AMOC tipping point. This more substantial

Attaquées par les populistes en France et en Europe, les règlementations ciblant les pesticides, les Pfas ou les particules fines sont pourtant vitales, rappelle le porte-parole de l’association Générations futures, François Veillerette.

Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation and adaptation actions). This paper describes the scenario framework for ScenarioMIP as part of CMIP7. The design process has involved various rounds of interaction with the research community and user groups at large. The proposal covers a set of scenarios exploring high levels of climate change (to explore high-end climate risks), medium levels of climate change (anchored to current policy), and low levels of climate change (aligned with current international agreements). These scenarios follow very different trajectories in terms of emissions, with some likely to experience peaks and subsequent declines in greenhouse gas concentrations in this century. An important innovation is that most scenarios are intended to be run, if possible, in emission-driven mode, providing a better representation of the Earth system uncert

Le texte a été modifié par rapport à sa première mouture adoptée en juillet 2025, qui avait suscité l’indignation, avant que le Conseil constitutionnel censure l’article réintroduisant l’acétamipride, un pesticide de la famille des néonicotinoïdes.

The ecological concept of human carrying capacity is necessarily complicated because human beings are the ‘ultimate ecosystem engineers’ who moderate the environment for their benefit. For at least the last few hundred years, human ingenuity, access to massive stocks of fossil fuels, and technological development have driven facilitation whereby increasing human abundance has promoted higher population growth rates. However, this positive relationship broke down during the 1950s, and by 1962, the global human population entered a phase where the growth rate consistently declined as population increased. The onset of this negative phase occurred 8 years before a global biocapacity deficit began in 1970. The onset of the negative phase also varies regionally, with the lowest-income and highest fertility regions entering this phase later than higher-income regions. A Ricker logistic model fitted to the negative phase predicts that the global population could reach 11.7–12.4 billion people between 2067 and 2076.

Le philosophe de l'environnement Rupert Read dit à Ella Whelan la panéliste Moral Maze pourquoi nous ne pourrons peut-être plus profiter du même niveau de vie pour le bien de la planète et des générations futures.

Donald Trump a salué mardi un accord pour construire une nouvelle raffinerie de pétrole avec le soutien du géant indien de l'énergie Reliance industries, dans un contexte de frictions récurrentes avec New Delhi. Cette nouvelle structure sera construite par l'entreprise America First Refining dans l'Etat du Texas, dans le sud des Etats-Unis. "Il s'agit d'un accord historique de 300 milliards de dollars, le plus important de l'histoire des Etats-Unis", a écrit le président américain sur Truth Social, sans donner plus de détails.

Residents report terror of smoke-filled city, from potentially toxic rain, air and water to food scarcity and difficulty of escape

La réforme du règlement européen sur la sécurité des produits chimiques (REACH) figure à l'agenda de la Commission européenne depuis 2020. Cependant, une forte opposition de l'industrie, y compris tout au long de l'année 2025 comme le révèle ce rapport, a occulté l'urgence sanitaire et environnementale de lutter contre les substances chimiques nocives. La manipulation de l'industrie et son accès privilégié aux plus hautes instances de la Commission, conjugués à l'hostilité actuelle de l'UE envers les nouvelles réglementations environnementales et à sa frénésie de déréglementation, semblent avoir irrémédiablement compromis un objectif clé du Pacte vert pour l'Europe.

By the end of this century, parts of Africa could face heatwaves for 250-300 days a year, which will make it difficult for people to survive.

Climate change is making it challenging to identify future host cities.

US demand to own Greenland leaves little scope for compromise, and forcing the issue would entail end of Nato Greenland, with a population of fewer than 57,000, might not seem to be the territory on which the future of the relationship between Europe and the US, the viability of Nato as the world’s most successful defence alliance, or even the fractured relations between the UK and Europe would be determined. But battlefields are sometimes the product of chance, rather than choice. It now feels as if Donald Trump’s threat to impose 10% tariffs on eight fellow Nato states for sending troops last week to support Greenland’s sovereignty may be one of those clarifying moments in which Europe had no option. Successive European leaders condemned Trump’s blackmail and intimidation on Sunday and they sounded as if they meant it.

Qualité de l’eau du robinet, pesticides épandus, part de bio à la cantine… L’association Générations futures lance «Source commune», un outil qui rassemble des données publiques environnementales, commune par commune, à l’approche des élections municipales.

Notre ami Luke Kemp, chercheur au Centre pour l'étude du risque existentiel à l'Université de Cambridge (UK), a publié le livre Goliath’s Curse, the History and Future of Societal Collapse (Penguin, July 2025, 580 pages), qui sera édité en français par Albin Michel au printemps 2026. Cette « malédiction de Goliath » est le meilleur livre sur l’effondrement systémique mondial depuis dix ans, tant par la vision multidisciplinaire qu’il présente que par sa complétude et par son érudition.

Les scientifiques viennent de lever le voile sur une réalité qui pourrait redéfinir notre compréhension des catastrophes météorologiques à venir. Pendant des années, nos modèles climatiques ont scruté l’avenir avec des yeux myopes, incapables de percevoir la véritable ampleur des déluges qui nous attendent. Une équipe de chercheurs démontre aujourd’hui dans Nature Geoscience que nous avons dramatiquement sous-estimé l’intensité des pluies extrêmes futures. La différence n’est pas anodine : nous parlons d’écarts qui se comptent en vies humaines et en milliards de dollars de dégâts.

L'Égypte a annoncé un consensus sur les noms des membres du comité palestinien.

We are living in a time of polycrisis. If you feel trapped – you’re not alone. I hadn’t fully grasped how the idea of a better future sustained me – now I, like many others, find it difficult to be productive

Climate models simulate a wide range of 21st century warming for a given forcing scenario. Constraining this uncertainty is a central challenge in climate science because of its implications for climate policy and adaptation. The Transient Climate Response (TCR) is a key idealized metric used to quantify future warming in response to an exponentially increasing CO2 concentration. Climate models span a range of 1.3–3 K for TCR. In attempts to constrain this range, emergent constraints on TCR based on historical temperature trends consistently pointed towards TCR values at the lower end of the range of models. However, recent evidence from trends in the short-wave and long-wave components of Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) at the top-of-atmosphere suggests that models with higher TCR lie closer to the observed EEI trends. Here, we reconcile this discrepancy and provide a revised range for TCR of 1.9–2.6 K. Using a statistical variability-filtering approach, we show that previous temperature-based constraints we

Rob Hopkins has spent the past decades exploring one question: what if we could fall in love with the future? As co-founder of Transition Network and Transition Town Totnes, and author of four books, he travels the world helping communities cultivate imagination, longing and possibility. He believes that the transition we so urgently need depends on one thing above all: imagination.

The Global Environment Outlook, Seventh Edition: A Future We Choose, the product of 287 multi-disciplinary scientists from 82 countries, is the most comprehensive scientific assessment of the global environment ever carried out.

I always say that models are not predictions; they are qualitative illustrations of what the future could be. But as the future gets closer to the present, models can start being seen as predictive tools. It is the weather/climate dichotomy, so aptly exploited to confuse matters by politically minded people in the discussion about climate. Right now, we are getting close to the point that we could forecast a collapse in the same way as we can forecast the trajectory of a tropical storm. So, you remember how “The Limits to Growth” generated a long term forecast in 1972. Here it is

22 of the planet’s 34 vital signs are at record levels, with many of them continuing to trend sharply in the wrong direction. This is the message of the sixth issue of the annual “State of the climate” report. The report was prepared by an international coalition with contribution from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and led by Oregon State University scientists. Published today in BioScience, it cites global data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in proposing “high-impact” strategies.

Des chercheurs européens viennent de franchir une étape importante dans la médecine prédictive. Des équipes de l’EMBL (Laboratoire européen de biologie moléculaire), du DKFZ (Centre allemand de recherche sur le cancer) et de l’Université de Copenhague ont mis au point un modèle d’intelligence artificielle (IA) générative capable de prévoir l’évolution de la santé humaine à long terme. Conçu sur des principes similaires à ceux des grands modèles de langage – les systèmes derrière les assistants conversationnels modernes –, cet outil apprend à « lire » les antécédents médicaux comme une séquence d’événements pour en déduire la probabilité de futures maladies.

The latest Lancet Countdown report warns that health impacts of climate change are worsening, with millions dying needlessly each year due to fossil fuel dependence, growing greenhouse gas emissions, and failure to adequately adapt. As some countries and companies rollback on climate commitments, local and grassroots leadership is building momentum for a healthier future.​ The report represents the work of 128 experts from 71 institutions, monitoring progress across 57 indicators – from heat-related deaths to bank lending to fossil fuels – providing the most comprehensive assessment yet of the links between climate change and health.

Collapse has historically benefited the 99%. […] That’s the amazing conclusion of Luke Kemp, author of Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse.  Luke is a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, and has spent the past five years studying the collapse of civilisations throughout history. He joins me to explain his research, detailing the difference between complex, collective civilisations and what he calls “Goliaths”, massive centralising forces by which a small group of individuals extract wealth from the rest through domination and the threat of violence. Today, he says, we live in a global Goliath.

Le Future Risks Report explore les risques auxquels nous pourrions être confrontés à l'avenir. Ce rapport s’appuie sur les conclusions d’une enquête annuelle menée auprès de 3 600 experts issus de 57 pays et 23 000 personnes représentatives de la population dans 18 pays, les invitant à classer les 10 principaux risques du futur, en fonction de leur impact potentiel sur la société pour les cinq à dix prochaines années.

Four Prime Ministers in twelve months. Social protests in the streets. Extreme parties rising in the polls. President Macron, once seen as Europe's great reformer, seems politically finished. But what if France's paralysis is not an exception - what if it shows Europe's future?