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Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements.

World Meteorological Organization sees ‘no end in sight to the rising trend’, largely driven by fossil fuel burning

When attempting to quantify future harms caused by carbon emissions and to set appropriate energy policies, it has been argued that the most important metric is the number of human deaths caused by climate change. Several studies have attempted to overcome the uncertainties associated with such forecasting. In this article, approaches to estimating future human death tolls from climate change relevant at any scale or location are compared and synthesized, and implications for energy policy are considered. Several studies are consistent with the “1000-ton rule,” according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming, which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter. On this basis, relatively aggressive energy policies are summarized that would enable im

Top oil and gas companies have made little progress in turning away from hydrocarbons and towards the goals of the 2015 Paris climate deal, multinational nonprofit platform CDP said on Thursday.

The total concentration of greenhouse gases and other forcing agents, including cooling aerosols, reached 465 parts per million CO2 equivalents in 2020. This is around the peak level that the International Panel on Climate Change states 'should not be exceeded if — with a 67% likelihood and not allowing a temperature overshoot — the global temperature increase is to be limited to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels'. When allowing for a temperature overshoot, the peak level could be exceeded in 2024. The peak concentrations corresponding to a temperature increase of 2oC by 2100 could be exceeded between 2027 and 2030.

Vast releases of gas, along with future ‘methane bombs’, represent huge threat – but curbing emissions would rapidly reduce global heating

Electric utilities are likely responsible for the nation’s higher than expected emissions of sulfur hexafluoride, a greenhouse gas 25,000 times worse for the climate than carbon dioxide.

Vast carbon store may be close to point where it could flip from absorbing CO2 to releasing it, research shows. The Congo peatlands are a huge carbon “timebomb” that could be triggered by the climate crisis, research has shown.

Many countries' pledges to get to net zero greenhouse gas emissions rely partly on removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, using methods such as planting trees and restoring degraded ecosystems. But a report out today has revealed they are relying too heavily on these carbon drawdown schemes to fulfil these promises. The Land Gap Report, which was released today by the University of Melbourne and includes input from more than 20 international researchers, has calculated countries would collectively need 1.2 billion hectares of land to meet their Paris Agreement goals.

Scientists warn world ‘is heading in wrong direction’ amid rise in nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane.Atmospheric levels of all three greenhouse gases have reached record highs, according to a study by the World Meteorological Organization, which scientists say means the world is “heading in the wrong direction”.

The EU is on track to break a promise to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030 made due to a “policy vacuum” on livestock emissions, a report has warned.Most of Europe’s methane emissions come from agriculture – particularly livestock – but the EU has avoided using policy levers such as its €387bn common agricultural policy to directly tackle the problem

WMO records biggest increase in methane concentrations since start of measurements

Levels of the gas are growing at a record rate and natural sources like wetlands are the cause, but scientists don’t know how to curb it.

Greenhouse gas has undergone rapid acceleration and scientists say it may be due to atmospheric changes

The EPA ruling means it may now be mathematically impossible through available avenues for the US to achieve its greenhouse gas emissions goal

Climate-changing pollution reaches record levels, driving unprecedented heating

When people talk about ways to slow climate change, they often mention trees, and for good reason. Forests take up a large amount of the planet-warming carbon dioxide that people put into the atmosphere when they burn fossil fuels. But will trees keep up that pace as global temperatures rise? With companies increasingly investing in forests as offsets, saying it cancels out their continuing greenhouse gas emissions, that’s a multibillion-dollar question.

En février 2022, la revue Plos Climate, spécialisée dans les questions relatives au changement climatique, a fait paraître en accès libre un article au titre évocateur : Rapid global phaseout of animal agriculture has the potential to stabilize greenhouse gas levels for 30 years and offset 68 percent of CO2 emissions this century (L’arrêt rapide de l’élevage à l’échelle mondiale pourrait stabiliser les niveaux de gaz à effet de serre pendant 30 ans et compenser 68 % des émissions de CO2 de ce siècle).

Water vapor is Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas. It’s responsible for about half of Earth’s greenhouse effect — the process that occurs when gases in Earth’s atmosphere trap the Sun’s heat. Greenhouse gases keep our planet livable. Without them, Earth’s surface temperature would be about 59 degrees Fahrenheit (33 degrees Celsius) colder. Water vapor is also a key part of Earth’s water cycle: the path that all water follows as it moves around Earth’s atmosphere, land, and ocean as liquid water, solid ice, and gaseous water vapor.

Oil companies love to tell the world about the super cool technologies that have that will allow us to keep burning fossil fuels without cooking the climate. But those technologies are largely bullshit.