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août 2026

Climate models simulate a wide range of 21st century warming for a given forcing scenario. Constraining this uncertainty is a central challenge in climate science because of its implications for climate policy and adaptation. The transient climate response (TCR) is a key idealized metric used to quantify future warming in response to an exponentially increasing CO2 concentration. Climate models span a range of 1.3–3 K for TCR. In attempts to constrain this range, emergent constraints on TCR based on historical temperature trends consistently pointed toward TCR values at the lower end of the range of models. However, recent evidence from trends in the short-wave and long-wave components of Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) at the top-of-atmosphere suggests that models with higher TCR lie closer to the observed EEI trends. Here, we reconcile this discrepancy and provide a revised range for TCR of 1.9–2.6 K. Using a statistical variability-filtering approach, we show that previous temperature-based constraints wer

juin 2026

For most of the modern era, capitalism justified itself through growth. Industrial societies converted vast amounts of fossil energy into production, wealth, and rising living standards. Roads, bridges, power grids, schools, and public institutions expanded alongside the economy. Inequality and exploitation remained deeply embedded in the system, but they were partly obscured by a broader story of material progress.
Cet article rapporte la difficulté du secteur manufacturier en Grande Bretagne à faire face à l’augmentation du cout de l'énergie. Dans l'ombre de cet article apparait ce qui sera la réalité à un moment donné, sans pétrole bon marché, l'industrie manufacturière ne peut pas fonctionner dans les conditions actuelles. Le contrat social sera rompu et il faudra réinventer une manière de vivre ensemble. La situation en Grande Bretagne est peut-être exacerbée par le Brexit et la situation insulaire mais elle est l'avant-poste de ce qui attend une bonne part du monde industrialisé, à moins de relancer le charbon avec toutes les conséquences sur le dérèglement climatique et la santé des personnes que nous connaissons.
C’est un indicateur climatique peu connu, et il part en vrille. Son nom : le déséquilibre énergétique de la Terre. Sa conséquence : il pourrait accélérer le réchauffement climatique bien au-delà de nos prévisions.

mai 2026

La production d'acier mondiale, responsable de 11% des émissions de gaz à effet de serre d'origine humaine, reste largement dépendante du charbon et les capacités de production d'acier "vert" n'ont que "très légèrement" augmenté en 2025, déplore l'ONG américaine Global Energy Monitor lundi. Pour transformer le minerai de fer en acier, les hauts fourneaux traditionnels consomment du charbon d'origine fossile, très polluant. Ils contribuent ainsi significativement au réchauffement de l'atmosphère.
Norway’s energy minister says country has a ‘responsibility’ to address shortfalls caused by wars in Ukraine and Middle East

mars 2026

Oil prices could jump to $200 per barrel and even higher if the Strait of Hormuz remains near-closed as it is at the moment, Fereidun Fesharaki, Chairman Emeritus of energy consultancy FGE NexantECA, told Bloomberg on Tuesday. Although the oil market is moving on sentiment and U.S. President Donald Trump’s social media posts about the war, the fact is that “every week, 100 million barrels of oil is not going through, and every month, 400 million barrels are not going through,” Fesharaki told Bloomberg Television.
Wael Sawan warns of pressure on diesel and petrol if strait of Hormuz does not reopen to oil and gas shipping
When James Prescott Joule lent his name to a unit of energy, he could not have foreseen today’s alarming calculations
Depleting THAAD and Patriot interceptor inventories threaten US extended deterrence, Gulf energy security, and the regional power balance amid sustained Iranian ballistic missile and drone assaults.

février 2026

Les commandes à Siemens Energy ont atteint un "nouveau record" au premier trimestre de son exercice décalé 2025/2026, en raison de la forte demande en électricité liée à l'IA, a annoncé mercredi l'équipementier énergétique allemand.
When a series of power outages hit Europe last year, the finger of blame was quickly – and falsely – pointed to an unlikely source: renewables. Blackouts are being used as a political tool to oppose the energy transition. But they can also become an opportunity for open discussions about energy infrastructure – a topic too often reserved only for technical audiences.
L'équipementier énergétique allemand Siemens Energy a annoncé mardi un plan d'investissement d'un milliard de dollars et la création de 1 500 emplois aux États-Unis, pour répondre à la forte demande en électricité liée à l'IA.

janvier 2026

A new international analysis published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences on 9 January finds that the Earth's ocean stored more heat in 2025 than in any year since modern measurements began. The finding is the result of a major international collaboration led by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, involving more than 50 scientists from 31 research institutions worldwide. The 2025 heat increase was 23 Zetta Joules (23,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Joules of energy), which is equivalent to ~37 years of global primary energy consumption at the 2023 level (~620 Exa Joules per year). The assessment combines data from major international data centers and independent research groups, including three observational products (Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Copernicus Marine; and NOAA/NCEI) and an ocean reanalysis (CIGAR-RT) from three continents: Asia, Europe, and America. These groups confirm that the 2025 ocean heat content (OHC) reached the h

décembre 2025

The activist and author of Here Comes the Sun discusses rapid advances in solar and wind power and how the US ceded leadership in the sector to its main rival

novembre 2025

87%. That’s how much the emissions of NVIDIA (worth 5 trillion dollars) increased in 2024, as an article from TruthDig is one of the only sources in the world to point out. This means it became the world’s most valuable company by answering soaring demand for AI… whilst doubling its carbon footprint. Not to mention water: Samsung’s next ‘mega-cluster’ of GPU fabs will consume half of Seoul’s water, says the same article.
Watchdog’s flagship report says rise in low-carbon electricity will make transition ‘inevitable’, despite Trump’s calls to carry on drilling

septembre 2025

The planet is nearing dangerous limits. Yet progress on clean energy shows what’s possible. With political will, cooperation can still avert the worst of the climate crisis
Much attention today focuses on uncertainties affecting the future evolution of oil and natural gas demand, with less consideration given to how the supply picture could develop. However, understanding decline rates – the annual rate at which production declines from existing oil and gas fields – is crucial for assessing the outlook for oil and gas supply and, by extension, for market balances. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has long examined this issue, and a detailed understanding of decline rates is at the heart of IEA modelling and analysis, underpinning the insights provided by the scenarios in the World Energy Outlook. This new report – based on analysis of the production records of around 15 000 oil and gas fields around the world – explores the implications of accelerating decline rates, growing reliance on unconventional resources, and evolving project development patterns for the global oil and gas supply landscape, for energy security and for investment. It also provides regional insights
Verso energy va fournir à l'industrie sidérurgique de la Sarre, en Allemagne, de l'hydrogène produit en Moselle à partir d'électricité "verte", ont annoncé vendredi l'énergéticien français et le groupe sidérurgique allemand SHS (Stahl-Holding-Saar), qui pourra ainsi décarboner sa production. Lors d'une conférence de presse à Dillingen, dans la Sarre, Verso energy et SHS ont annoncé avoir signé un contrat qui prévoit la fourniture d'au moins 6.000 tonnes d'hydrogène sur une période de dix ans à compter de 2029. Cela s'inscrit dans la stratégie de décarbonation du groupe allemand, qui entend remplacer le charbon par l'hydrogène dans son processus de fabrication de l'acier.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has described her plan to “maximise extraction” of the UK’s oil and gas from the North Sea as a “common sense” energy policy. Politicians are using language like this increasingly often – calling themselves “pragmatic” on climate change and invoking “common sense”. It sounds reasonable, reassuring, and grownup – the opposite of “hysterical” campaigners or “unrealistic” targets.

juillet 2025

Despite concerns over the environmental impacts of AI models, it's surprisingly hard to find precise, reliable data on the CO2 emissions and water use for many major large language models. French model-maker Mistral is seeking to fix that this week, releasing details from what it calls a first-of-its-kind environmental audit "to quantify the environmental impacts of our LLMs."
Taking a closer look at AI’s supposed energy apocalypse
Consumers ending up shouldering most of the costs of installing and operating CCS in the UK, a new report has found.

juin 2025

In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15639576; Smith et al., 2025a) to produce updated estimates for key indicators of the state of the climate system: net emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. This year, we additionally include indicators for sea-level rise and land precipitation change. We follow methods as closely as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One report.
The growth in US power demand is surging to its highest rate in decades, driven first by the electrification of oil and gas production and then by the build out of data centers. While still below the 5-10% growth seen in China, the world’s first “electrostate," the US power sector is experiencing rapid structural growth. The country is delivering more than a 3.5% annual power demand growth rate for the first time in several decades, potentially positioning the US as the world’s next “electrostate,” despite the strong oil and gas focus of the Trump administration.
La préfecture de Gironde a confirmé samedi le rejet par l'État d'un projet de huit nouveaux forages pétroliers près d'Arcachon, en prenant une arrêté de refus d'autorisation de travaux. La demande de forages était portée par le groupe canadien Vermilion Energy, titulaire jusqu'au 1er janvier 2035 d'une concession exploitée depuis les années 1960 sur la commune de la Teste-de-Buch, près d'Arcachon, dont la forêt avait été ravagée par des incendies monstres à l'été 2022.
L'américain Constellation Energy, grand opérateur de centrales nucléaires aux Etats-Unis, a passé un accord pour fournir durant 20 ans à Meta de l'énergie produite par sa centrale nucléaire de Clinton (Illinois), a-t-il annoncé mardi.

février 2025

Clean-energy sectors drove a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024 and have overtaken real-estate sales in value. The new sector-by-sector analysis for Carbon Brief, based on official figures, industry data and analyst reports, shows the growing role of clean technology in China’s economy – particularly the so-called “new three” industries, namely, solar, electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries.

novembre 2024

Trump could reverse the nation’s progress on climate change, but rolling back the Biden administration’s significant climate successes could be a low, slow and difficult process...
The results of one election can’t stop the momentum of the energy transition. But they can do a lot of damage.
A Trump presidency can delay, but not stop, the global transition to renewable energy, but it may more effectively stymie progress than during his first term.

octobre 2024

World Energy Outlook 2024 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.

août 2024

UN says a global ‘backlash’ against climate action is being stoked by fossil fuel companies

juillet 2024

A new study finds that the mining and processing of the metal critical to EV batteries and renewable energy storage projects depletes and contaminates surface water, often in already vulnerable communities.

juin 2024

Het wereldwijde gebruik van fossiele brandstoffen bereikte in 2023 een nieuw record. Dat blijkt uit een rapport van het Energy Institute, de Britse beroepsorganisatie voor werknemers in de energie-industrie. Ook de uitstoot van de energie-industrie was nog nooit zo hoog.

mai 2024

Foundational innovation in cloud technology and artificial intelligence will require more energy than ever before—shattering any illusion that we will restrict supplies.
Sharp declines in critical mineral prices mask risks of future supply strains as energy transitions advance - News from the International Energy Agency
This essay takes up and extends an analysis of the ambitions of the energy transition presented during the conference entitled “L’erreur fondamentale de la transition”, held in Lausanne in December 2022, at the annual Switzerland ShiftersDay. The intervention questioned the conceptualization of energy transition, given possible inaccuracies, or errors in the categorization of reality. It is not certain that the energy contained in the wind, solar radiation, or atoms is equivalent to hydrocarbon energy for human societalneeds. Although all energies are theoretically convertible into one another, the assumption that any type of energy can always be replaced by another is likely to prove false. An energy transition based on the substitution of energies would then be inconceivable.

avril 2024

Decarbonization efforts and sustainability transformations represent highly contested socio-political projects. Yet, they often encounter various forms of depoliticization. This article illuminates how a grand socio-ecological challenge like the energy transition gets depoliticized by an unusual suspect, namely Germany's Green Party. Based on a qualitative content analysis of Green Party programs, party conventions, and additional documents published between 1980 and 2021, this article traces how the Green Party has depoliticized the energy transition over time, emphasizing a shift from radical societal change to ecological modernization. The changing stance of the German Greens on the country's energy transition reflects more profound changes of a future society the party collectively envisions through their energy and climate change agenda. These changes result from a struggle between moderates advocating incremental political reforms and radicals aiming for more fundamental and systemic societal change.

mars 2024

Une coalition internationale d'activistes va manifester jeudi dès 08h00 aux abords de l'Atomium, en marge du premier "Nuclear Energy Summit", a annoncé Greenpeace EU dans un communiqué.
Le Premier ministre Alexander De Croo était l’invité de Maxime Binet sur LN24 ce jeudi 21 mars 2024. A l'occasion du premier "Nuclear Energy Summit" en Belgique, il a insisté sur la présence du nucléaire dans un mix énergétique décarboné en Belgique.
Global investment in the clean energy transition grew by 17% in 2023, showing resilience despite geopolitical tensions, high interest rates, and inflation. But was it enough to keep the world on track to hit net zero by 2050? To answer this question, we compare 2023 clean energy investment by sector with what’s annually needed to reach net zero by 2050, in partnership with the National Public Utilities Council.

février 2024

Le navire-laboratoire Energy Observer, premier navire capable de produire son propre hydrogène, fait escale cette semaine en Floride, dans le sud-est des États-Unis, dernier pays qu'il visitera avant de revenir en France pour achever un tour du monde entamé en 2020.

janvier 2024

Small modular reactors (SMRs) have been the subject of endless hype in recent years but in fact, no SMRs have ever been built, none are being built now and in all likelihood none will ever be built because of the prohibitive costs. SMRs are defined as reactors with a capacity of 300 megawatts (MW) or less with serial factory production of reactor components (or ‘modules’). No SMRs have been built, but dozens of small (<300 MW) power reactors have been built in numerous countries, without factory production of reactor components.

octobre 2023

L'énergéticien allemand Siemens Energy a annoncé jeudi être en discussions avec l'Etat allemand pour obtenir des garanties afin de l'aider à surmonter ses problèmes dans l'éolien, ce qui a provoqué un plongeon du titre en Bourse.La direction du groupe "mène des discussions préliminaires avec diverses parties, notamment les banques (...) et le gouvernement fédéral" en vue d'obtenir "un volume croissant de garanties", a-t-il indiqué dans un communiqué.

septembre 2023

Forecast downturn still ‘nowhere near steep enough’ to limit temperature rise to 1.5C, says watchdog
When attempting to quantify future harms caused by carbon emissions and to set appropriate energy policies, it has been argued that the most important metric is the number of human deaths caused by climate change. Several studies have attempted to overcome the uncertainties associated with such forecasting. In this article, approaches to estimating future human death tolls from climate change relevant at any scale or location are compared and synthesized, and implications for energy policy are considered. Several studies are consistent with the “1000-ton rule,” according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming, which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter. On this basis, relatively aggressive energy policies are summarized that would enable im

août 2023

BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies found to be leading a multi-pronged influencing campaign that could lock in fossil gas across both continents, with push back coming from more renewables-focused European energy players.
News of fusion has the effect of temporarily permitting people to shed the anxiety and embrace the dream all the more strongly.
L'énergéticien allemand Siemens Energy a réévalué lundi à 1,6 milliard d'euros le coût des charges dévoilées en juin, lié aux défaillances dans des composants d'éoliennes produits par sa filiale Gamesa, ce qui se traduit par une perte record de 3 milliards d'euros au troisième trimestre."Les coûts attendus pour remédier aux problèmes de qualité (des éoliennes ndlr) ont été pris en compte au 3ème trimestre, les charges pour dépenses futures s'élevant à 1,6 milliard d'euros", a indiqué le groupe dans un communiqué lundi.
The CEO of one of Infosys' other major clients, Shell, also joined Rishi Sunak's new business council two weeks ago.

juillet 2023

Energy firms have made record profits by increasing production of oil and gas, far from their promises of rolling back emissions

juin 2023

L'Energy Institute(1) a mis en ligne ce 26 juin le « Statistical Review of World Energy 2023 », rapport précédemment produit par BP(2) qui fait partie des principales publications statistiques portant sur l'énergie. État des lieux en infographies. La consommation d'énergie dans le monde et la hausse des prix en 2022
Sweden formally renounces EU net zero roadmap championed by the likes of Germany.
A new climate case was filed this week. Multnomah County, the Oregon county that includes Portland, filed suit against several oil majors for their role in exacerbating the climate change that led to the county's "heat dome" in June 2021, which killed 69 people. But the case doesn't just place
Major fossil fuel entities and trade associations including Koch Industries, the American Petroleum Institute, and the Western States Petroleum Association, as well as consulting behemoth McKinsey & Company, were slapped with the latest climate liability lawsuit today with the filing of a complaint in the Oregon Circuit Court in Multnomah County, Oregon.
A major reason for the growth in the use of renewable energy is the fact that if a person looks at them narrowly enough--such as by using a model--wind and solar look to be useful. They don't burn fossil fuels, so it appears that they might be helpful to the environment. Energy modeling misses important points. I believe that profitability signals are much more important.

mai 2023

Read the latest news headlines and analysis about politics, sports, business, lifestyle and entertainment from award winning Irish and British journalists.
Le géant gazier du Qatar, Qatar Energy, a annoncé mardi l'attribution d'un contrat de 10 milliards de dollars à une co-entreprise entre la société française Technip Energies et Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC). Le contrat d'une valeur "d'environ 10 milliards de dollars" prévoit "la construction de deux trains de gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) d'une capacité de production totale de 16 millions de tonnes par an" dans le champ de North Field South (NFS), a indiqué la compagnie dans un communiqué.
La compagnie pétrolière australienne Invictus Energy a annoncé lundi la découverte d'un gisement d'hydrocarbures, dans le nord du Zimbabwe, un pays qui souffre de coupures d'énergies massives. L'analyse des échantillons confirme la présence de pétrole, d'hélium et d'un gaz naturel "de grande qualité", a précisé la compagnie.La compagnie australienne a réévalué les données d'une étude menée dans les années 1990 par le géant pétrolier américain ExxonMobil (ex-Mobil) qui avait abandonné son projet sur ce site situé à 240 kilomètres au nord de la capitale Harare.

avril 2023

Several nations plan to build new coal power plants, with China alone approving nearly 100 gigawatts. Each gigawatt is the equivalent of installing more than 3 million solar panels.

mars 2023

Pie-in-the-sky fantasies of carbon capture and geoengineering are a way for decision-makers to delay taking real action
Microplastic pollution reduces energy production in a microscopic creature found in freshwater worldwide, new research shows. Paramecium bursaria contain algae that live inside their cells and provide energy by photosynthesis. The results of a NEW STUDY showed a 50% decline in net photosynthesis—a major impact on the algae's ability to produce energy and release oxygen

février 2023

L'entreprise canadienne TC Energy, qui exploite l'oléoduc Keystone entre le Canada et les Etats-Unis, a estimé jeudi que les conséquences d'une grosse fuite de pétrole dans le Kansas en décembre allaient lui coûter 480 millions de dollars. Ce montant inclut les frais engagés pour le nettoyage et la remise en état de la zone souillée, les enquêtes et le retour d'expériences, précise un communiqué. TC Energy avait repéré l'incident le 7 décembre et avait, dans la foulée, arrêté en urgence les flux d'hydrocarbures dans le tuyau.

janvier 2023

“Combustion is the problem – when you’re continuing to burn something, that’s not solving the problem,” says Prof Mark Jacobson. The Stanford University academic has a compelling pitch: the world can rapidly get 100% of its energy from renewable sources with, as the title of his new book says, “no miracles needed”. Wind, water and solar can provide plentiful and cheap power, he argues, ending the carbon emissions driving the climate crisis, slashing deadly air pollution and ensuring energy security. Carbon capture and storage, biofuels, new nuclear and other technologies are expensive wastes of time, he argues.
It beggars belief that the UN thought it a good idea to allow an authoritarian petro-state to host the already compromised summit, says Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of climate hazards
Group says forcing polluters to store carbon dioxide underground is needed to help world reach net zero
Russia’s war in Ukraine has earned Norway billions – and caused controversy. Thanks to oil and gas reserves in the waters off its coast, Norway is not only extremely rich but getting richer still. Already the World Bank’s seventh wealthiest country by GDP per capita at the start of this year, the resource-rich Scandinavian country’s profits have ballooned to record levels over the last 12 months, as prices on the energy markets tripled due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Norway replaced bellicose Moscow as Europe’s largest supplier of gas.

décembre 2022

Global coal demand is set to increase only marginally in 2022 but enough to push it to an all-time high amid the energy crisis, according to a new IEA report, which forecasts the world’s coal consumption will remain at similar levels in the following years in the absence of stronger efforts to accelerate the transition to clean energy.

novembre 2022

The Sea Port Oil Terminal, 30 miles off the Texas coast, is the first of four proposed offshore terminals designed to dramatically expand the U.S. oil export capacity.
Greenpeace voerde op maandagochtend 21 november actie aan het partijbureau van de N-VA. De milieuorganisatie toont met een groot spandoek dat de partij de fossiele energiebedrijven een hand boven het hoofd houdt. Greenpeace vindt het onbegrijpelijk dat N-VA de Belgische uitstap uit het omstreden Energiehandvestverdrag (ECT) blokkeert.

octobre 2022

Le groupe français HDF Energy s'est vu attribuer par le gestionnaire public du réseau électrique sud-africain Eskom la location de 1.700 hectares de terrain pour développer d'ici à 2027 des centrales électriques solaires à hydrogène vert dans la province minière de Mpumalanga, qui concentre 80% de la production de charbon d'Afrique du Sud. Ce projet, dont l'investissement total porte sur 3 milliards de dollars, est l'un des fers de lance de la transition énergétique du pays voué à abandonner à terme les centrales au charbon.
Er is een duidelijke mismatch tussen het beleid dat nodig is om de klimaatcrisis tegen te gaan en de systemen die vandaag in voege zijn, schrijft Marc Maes, beleidsmedewerker Handel bij 11.11.11. Nergens wordt die kloof duidelijker dan bij het Energy Charter Treaty, een miskleun van een verdrag dat maar niet wordt stopgezet.
Fossil fuel companies that want a free pass to keep pumping oil and gas are making wildly unrealistic promises about 'capturing' their emissions at sites of pollution, or removing them from the atmosphere at later date. But the science says drastic emission cuts are needed now if we are to stay within 1.5ºC warming. Thus ‘net zero’ policies are in reality 'not zero', and effectively guarantee that we’ll overshoot 1.5ºC, triggering catastrophic climate impacts which we have no reason to believe can be reversed by speculative and unproven ‘carbon removal’ technologies.

septembre 2022

Investments of more than half a trillion euros will be needed to modernise Europe's energy grid this decade, if countries are to succeed in ramping up wind and solar power to break free from Russian gas, a draft EU document showed. The European Commission is set to publish next week a plan to "digitalise" Europe's energy system, as well as laying out new emergency measures to tame sky-high gas prices and help cash-strapped energy firms this winter. The draft plan, seen by Reuters, said electricity grid investments of 584 billion euros are needed until 2030, to support the planned rapid uptake of electric vehicles, renewable energy and heat pumps, and shift away from fossil fuels. Of this, around 400 billion euros would target the distribution grid. Some 170 billion of that would focus on ditigalisation, including the so-called "smart grids" that respond faster to local supply and demand fluctuations, helping waste less energy and benefit from cheaper periods.
Eleven of the 20 largest economies got a C or worse on a renewable energy report card, which assessed their plans to reach net zero and their targets for producing and using renewable energy

août 2022

The eyes of history will pierce the fog of politics. Science has exposed the course upon which our quest for energy has set our planet. Consequences will fall mainly on young people, their children, and grandchildren — unless decisive political leadership abandons wishful thinking and superficial half-measures. Climate change is a global matter and demands a global perspective.

juillet 2022

Climate change is reducing output and raising safety concerns at nuclear facilities from France to the US. But experts say adapting is possible—and necessary.
He has weaponised food, energy and refugees, spreading economic and political pain across the continent. Sanctions don’t work, a land for peace deal would be a disaster. Only the military route remains