Veille 2.1

La plantation d'arbres, outil classique de la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique, peut avoir l'effet inverse si elle transforme des terrains clairs, qui réfléchissent l'énergie du soleil, en une forêt sombre qui l'absorbe, avertit une étude publiée mardi, qui cartographie les lieux propices au reboisement.

Quelques jours après le passage du cyclone Belal, de nombreux foyers sont encore privés d’eau et d’électricité. Certains travaux pour la production électrique prendront « plusieurs mois », selon EDF.

De nombreuses personnes auraient été tuées dans des frappes israéliennes sur deux écoles de l'Organisation des Nations unies (Onu) dans la ville de Gaza, où se réfugient un grand nombre de Palestiniens déplacés, ont indiqué plusieurs médias.

Our work complements and enhances the work of others in the fields of science, health, business, industry, culture, finance, academia, politics and civil society. Established in 2012, the GSCC is a collaborative network of people working across a number of different organisations operating across six continents and covering themes such as climate science and impacts, food and nature, finance and economics, energy, transport, industry, and multilateral climate processes.

Deux scientifiques belges spécialisés dans la communication, Wim Vermeulen et Inez Schoenaers de l’agence de communication Bubka, et le professeur Gino Verleye enseignant à l’UGent, à la VUB et à l’imec sont parvenus à déchiffrer le langage de la durabilité. Ils ont ainsi défini les six caractéristiques qui confèrent de la crédibilité aux communications d’entreprise en matière de durabilité destinées au grand public. Les recherches apportent une contribution de taille à la science de la communication internationale et ont été publiées la semaine dernière par Frontiers, l’une des plus importantes maisons d’édition de revues scientifiques au monde. L’article s’est vu attribuer la classification A1, la plus élevée qui soit.

Although humans have long been predators with enduring nutritive and cultural relationships with their prey, seldom have conservation ecologists considered the divergent predatory behavior of contemporary, industrialized humans. Recognizing that the number, strength and diversity of predator-prey relationships can profoundly influence biodiversity, here we analyze humanity’s modern day predatory interactions with vertebrates and estimate their ecological consequences. Analysing IUCN ‘use and trade’ data for ~47,000 species, we show that fishers, hunters and other animal collectors prey on more than a third (~15,000 species) of Earth’s vertebrates. Assessed over equivalent ranges, humans exploit up to 300 times more species than comparable non-human predators. Exploitation for the pet trade, medicine, and other uses now affects almost as many species as those targeted for food consumption, and almost 40% of exploited species are threatened by human use. Trait space analyses show that birds and mammals threaten

The sixth assessment report of the IPCC assessed that the Arctic is projected to be on average practically ice-free in September near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, though not under low emissions scenarios, based on simulations from the latest generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Here we show, using an attribution analysis approach, that a dominant influence of greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in three observational datasets in all months of the year, but is on average underestimated by CMIP6 models. By scaling models’ sea ice response to greenhouse gases to best match the observed trend in an approach validated in an imperfect model test, we project an ice-free Arctic in September under all scenarios considered. These results emphasize the profound impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the Arctic, and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near

Flash drought, characterized by unusually rapid drying, can have substantial impact on many socioeconomic sectors, particularly agriculture. However, potential changes to flash drought risk in a warming climate remain unknown. In this study, projected changes in flash drought frequency and cropland risk from flash drought are quantified using global climate model simulations. We find that flash drought occurrence is expected to increase globally among all scenarios, with the sharpest increases seen in scenarios with higher radiative forcing and greater fossil fuel usage. Flash drought risk over cropland is expected to increase globally, with the largest increases projected across North America (change in annual risk from 32% in 2015 to 49% in 2100) and Europe (32% to 53%) in the most extreme emissions scenario. Following low-end and medium scenarios compared to high-end scenarios indicates a notable reduction in annual flash drought risk over cropland. Flash droughts are projected to become more frequent unde

Publications and communications

Les dernières communications du Premier Ministre belge Alexander De Croo à la COP27 ou dans une lettre ouverte, me pousse à vous partager mes réflexions sur son discours. Les mouvements de justice climatique doivent continuer leur travail car il ne faut pas oublier que c'est grâce à une pression constante que nous pouvons aller au plus proche de décisions ambitieuses. Sans mouvements massifs et constants, il n'y aura pas de changement systémique qui est nécessaire. A tout les activistes qui lisent ce message: Dont stop, never stop ! 🎵 @julieschummer 🎥 @luciemorauw

Persistent heat extremes can have severe impacts on ecosystems and societies, including excess mortality, wildfires, and harvest failures. Here we identify Europe as a heatwave hotspot, exhibiting upward trends that are three-to-four times faster compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes over the past 42 years. This accelerated trend is linked to atmospheric dynamical changes via an increase in the frequency and persistence of double jet stream states over Eurasia. We find that double jet occurrences are particularly important for western European heatwaves, explaining up to 35% of temperature variability. The upward trend in the persistence of double jet events explains almost all of the accelerated heatwave trend in western Europe, and about 30% of it over the extended European region. Those findings provide evidence that in addition to thermodynamical drivers, atmospheric dynamical changes have contributed to the increased rate of European heatwaves, with implications for risk management and potent

Des travaux de terrain menés au nord du Groenland suggèrent qu’une fois effondrées, les plateformes de glace ne sont plus en mesure de se reformer à moins que le climat ne se refroidisse considérablement. Aussi, un simple retour aux conditions pré-effondrement n’est pas suffisant. Les résultats ont été publiés dans la revue Nature Communications ce 9 mai.

Les services de renseignement allemands (BND) ont enregistré des communications radio de soldats russes dans lesquelles ils évoquent les exactions commises à Boutcha, au nord-ouest de Kiev, où des dizaines de cadavres ont été découverts, suscitant l'indignation, affirme jeudi le magazine der Spiegel.

L'Agence internationale de l'énergie atomique (AIEA) a exprimé dimanche sa "profonde inquiétude" à la suite d'informations concernant l'interruption des communications avec la centrale nucléaire ukrainienne de Zaporojie, la plus grande d'Europe, dont la Russie s'est emparée vendredi. L'AIEA, organisme de surveillance des Nations unies dans le domaine du nucléaire, a déclaré dans un communiqué que l'Ukraine l'avait informée que la direction de cette centrale, située dans le sud-est du territoire ukrainien, était désormais sous les ordres des forces russes.

Le gendarme des communications russe, Roskomnadzor, a menacé de « limiter l’accès » à Facebook, vendredi 25 février. Il accuse le réseau social américain de censurer des médias russes ainsi que de violer les droits humains et des citoyens russes. « En conformité avec la décision du procureur général à l’égard du réseau social Facebook, à compter du 25 février Roskomnadzor adopte des mesures pour limiter son accès », a déclaré l’agence, sans préciser toutefois la nature des limitations.

General Opsec Encrypt everything. Don’t carry anything with you that isn’t necessary from point to point. Not having something on you is better than having it on you encrypted if you are caught. Delete your messages / history routinely, turn off fingerprint unlock on phone/devices. Any transmitted signal is trackable/triangulatable instantly with the right monitoring setup, so transmit only when absolutely necessary if trying to avoid detection. Directional transmission (with directional antenna) is less risky than omnidirectionally blasting a signal. If possible, set up repeaters, for wider range and for better chances of being able to obfuscate origin of signal.

Le recul des glaces de mer en Arctique apporte des conditions de plus en plus favorables à la survenue d’incendies de forêt dans l’ouest des États-Unis. C’est du moins ce que révèlent de récents travaux publiés dans la revue scientifique Nature Communications.

Selon de nouveaux travaux basés sur l’étude de sédiments marins et soutenus par un ensemble grandissant de preuves, la désintégration partielle de la calotte glaciaire de l’Antarctique pourrait se jouer en ce moment même. Les résultats sont publiés dans la revue scientifique Nature Communications ce 18 novembre.

Emerging ice-sheet modeling suggests once initiated, retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) can continue for centuries. Unfortunately, the short observational record cannot resolve the tipping points, rate of change, and timescale of responses. Iceberg-rafted debris data from Iceberg Alley identify eight retreat phases after the Last Glacial Maximum that each destabilized the AIS within a decade, contributing to global sea-level rise for centuries to a millennium, which subsequently re-stabilized equally rapidly.

Le gouvernement chinois a appelé la population à constituer des réserves de nourriture, au moment où le pays tente de combattre un regain épidémique limité qui perturbe les communications.

Le réchauffement climatique pourrait avoir été atténué par la variabilité interne de la circulation océanique, d’après une étude publiée dans Nature Communications. Si cela est vrai, on peut craindre qu’il soit plus difficile de contenir le réchauffement sous les 2 °C dans les décennies à venir.

Communications from young people give me optimism. Potential leaders among young people seem to have an ability to see the forest for the trees regarding climate change policy, a desire to follow the data, and a recognition of the need to address political polarization.

Climate change is a critical factor affecting biodiversity. However, the quantitative relationship between temperature change and extinction is unclear. Here, we analyze magnitudes and rates of temperature change and extinction rates of marine fossils through the past 450 million years (Myr). The results show that both the rate and magnitude of temperature change are significantly positively correlated with the extinction rate of marine animals.

Stability in Earth's climate hinges on a delicate balance between the amount of energy the planet absorbs from the sun and the amount of energy Earth emits back into space. But that equilibrium has been thrown off in recent years — and the imbalance is growing, according to a paper published Wednesday in the journal Nature Communications.

A just-published study coins a new metric: the "mortality cost of carbon." That is, how many future lives will be lost—or saved—depending on whether we increase or decrease our current carbon emissions. If the numbers hold up, they are quite high. The study was published today in the journal Nature Communications.

Human activities are threatening to push the Earth system beyond its planetary boundaries, risking catastrophic and irreversible global environmental change. Action is urgently needed, yet well-intentioned policies designed to reduce pressure on a single boundary can lead, through economic linkages, to aggravation of other pressures. In particular, the potential policy spillovers from an increase in the global carbon price onto other critical Earth system processes has received little attention to date. To this end, we explore the global environmental effects of pricing carbon, beyond its effect on carbon emissions. We find that the case for carbon pricing globally becomes even stronger in a multi-boundary world, since it can ameliorate many other planetary pressures. It does however exacerbate certain planetary pressures, largely by stimulating additional biofuel production. When carbon pricing is allied with a biofuel policy, however, it can alleviate all planetary pressures. In the light of nine Earth Syst

Plastics in the marine environment have become a major concern because of their persistence at sea, and adverse consequences to marine life and potentially human health. Implementing mitigation strategies requires an understanding and quantification of marine plastic sources, taking spatial and temporal variability into account. Here we present a global model of plastic inputs from rivers into oceans based on waste management, population density and hydrological information. Our model is calibrated against measurements available in the literature. We estimate that between 1.15 and 2.41 million tonnes of plastic waste currently enters the ocean every year from rivers, with over 74% of emissions occurring between May and October. The top 20 polluting rivers, mostly located in Asia, account for 67% of the global total. The findings of this study provide baseline data for ocean plastic mass balance exercises, and assist in prioritizing future plastic debris monitoring and mitigation strategies. Rivers provide a m