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Earth is trapping much more heat than climate models forecast – and the rate has doubled in 20 years
(27/06) - collectifReal world measurements of how much extra heat the Earth is trapping are well beyond most climate models. That’s a real problem.
Un réchauffement climatique d’au moins +1,5°C est désormais inéluctable, concluent des scientifiques dans un rapport publié ce jeudi, qui vise à dresser un état des lieux de la santé de la planète.
In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15639576; Smith et al., 2025a) to produce updated estimates for key indicators of the state of the climate system: net emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. This year, we additionally include indicators for sea-level rise and land precipitation change. We follow methods as closely as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One report.
An international group of researchers has produced a third update to key indicators of the state of the climate system set out in the IPCC AR6 assessment, building on previous editions in 2023 and 2024. Forster et al. (2025) assess emissions, concentrations, temperatures, energy transfers, radiation balances, and the role of human activity and conclude that, while natural climate variability also played a role, the record observed temperatures in 2024 were dominated by human activity and the remaining carbon budget for 1.5° C is smaller than ever.
Le seuil de 1,5 °C de réchauffement planétaire sera dépassé sur plusieurs années, alerte un consortium international de scientifiques. Problème : le budget carbone pour le limiter sera bientôt épuisé.
Recent simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) indicate that a tipping event of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would cause Europe to cool by several degrees. This AMOC tipping event was found under constant pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing, while global warming likely limits this AMOC-induced cooling response. Here, we quantify the European temperature responses under different AMOC regimes and climate change scenarios. A strongly reduced AMOC state and intermediate global warming (C, Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) has a profound cooling effect on Northwestern Europe with more intense cold extremes. The largest temperature responses are found during the winter months and these responses are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic sea-ice extent. Enhanced North Atlantic storm track activity under an AMOC collapse results in substantially larger day-to-day temperature fluctuations. We conclude that the (far) future European temperatures are dependent o
Articles curated and summarized by the Environmental Health News' curation team. Some AI-based tools helped produce this text, with human oversight, fact checking and editing.
A new study uncovers Earth’s deep temperature history and shows just how tightly carbon dioxide has always controlled the climate
The Earth had its second-warmest April in NOAA's 176-year period of record. The 10 warmest Aprils on record have occurred since 2010.
Earth’s albedo (reflectivity) declined over the 25 years of precise satellite data, with the decline so large that this change must be mainly reduced reflection of sunlight by clouds. Part of the cloud change is caused by reduction of human-made atmospheric aerosols, which act as condensation nuclei for cloud formation, but most of the cloud change is cloud feedback that occurs with global warming. The observed albedo change proves that clouds provide a large, amplifying, climate feedback. This large cloud feedback confirms high climate sensitivity, consistent with paleoclimate data and with the rate of global warming in the past century.
Have you ever thought about what would happen if all life in the ocean disappeared? A recent study explores this extreme scenario to understand how ocean biology shapes the past, present, and future climate. The ocean plays a critical role in regulating Earth's climate. It is a massive carbon store that absorbs about 25% of human-caused emissions and thus helps maintain a relatively low CO2 level in the atmosphere. But what would happen if all marine life—from the tiniest plankton to the largest whales—disappeared? A recent study delves into this extreme scenario to uncover the crucial role that ocean biology plays in mitigating climate change.
2023 set a number of alarming new records. The global mean temperature also rose to nearly 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial level, another record.A team led by the Alfred Wegener Institute puts forward a possible explanation for the rise in global mean temperature: our planet has become less reflective because certain types of clouds have declined. The work is published in the journal Science.
Tipping elements within the Earth system are increasingly well understood. Scientists have identified more than 25 parts of the Earth’s climate system that are likely to have “tipping points” – thresholds where a small additional change in global warming will cause them to irreversibly shift into a new state. The “tipping” of these systems – which include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the Greenland ice sheet – would have profound consequences for both the biosphere and people. More recent research suggests that triggering one tipping element could cause subsequent changes in other tipping elements, potentially leading to a “tipping cascade”. For example, a collapsed AMOC could lead to dieback of the Amazon rainforest and hasten the melt of the Greenland ice sheet.
In thinking about the war being waged against life on Earth by Donald Trump, Elon Musk and their minions, I keep bumping into a horrible suspicion. Could it be that this is not just about delivering the world to oligarchs and corporations – not just about wringing as much profit from living systems as they can? Could it be that they want to see the destruction of the habitable planet?
The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is the world's strongest ocean current and plays a disproportionate role in the climate system due to its role as a conduit for major ocean basins. This current system is linked to the ocean's vertical overturning circulation, and is thus pivotal to the uptake of heat and CO2 in the ocean. The strength of the ACC has varied substantially across warm and cold climates in Earth's past, but the exact dynamical drivers of this change remain elusive. This is in part because ocean models have historically been unable to adequately resolve the small-scale processes that control current strength. Here, we assess a global ocean model simulation which resolves such processes to diagnose the impact of changing thermal, haline and wind conditions on the strength of the ACC. Our results show that, by 2050, the strength of the ACC declines by ∼20% for a high-emissions scenario. This decline is driven by meltwater from ice shelves around Antarctica, which is exported to lower latit
An international group of scientists, led by King's College London, has revealed how continued global warming will lead to more parts of the planet becoming too hot for the human body over the coming decades. the amount of landmass on our planet that would be too hot for even healthy young humans (18 to 60-year-olds) to keep a safe core body temperature will approximately triple (to 6%)—an area almost the size of the US—if global warming reaches 2°C above the preindustrial average.
2024 was the warmest year on Earth since direct observations began, and recent warming appears to be moving faster than expected.
Global warming is moving faster than the best models can keep a handle on.
Experts warn that mirror bacteria, constructed from mirror images of molecules found in nature, could put humans, animals and plants at risk of lethal infections
Climate change is causing unprecedented drying across the Earth — and five billion people could be affected by 2100, a new UN report has warned.
Earth for all – a survival guide for humanity est un rapport au club de Rome1 de 2022, dont l’ambition est d’engager le système économique sur une voie résiliente et équitable pou…
Olivia Ferrari is a New York City-based freelance journalist with a background in research and science communication. Olivia has lived and worked in the U.K., Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Her writing focuses on wildlife, environmental justice, climate change, and social science.
Harry is a U.K.-based senior staff writer at Live Science. He studied marine biology at the University of Exeter before training to become a journalist. He covers a wide range of topics including space exploration, planetary science, space weather, climate change, animal behavior, evolution and paleontology. His feature on the upcoming solar maximum was shortlisted in the "top scoop" category at the National Council for the Training of Journalists (NCTJ) Awards for Excellence in 2023.
We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis. For many years, scientists, including a group of more than 15,000, have sounded the alarm about the impending dangers of climate change driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem change (Ripple et al. 2020).
Record emissions, temperatures and population mean more scientists are looking into possibility of societal collapse, report says
Understanding how global mean surface temperature (GMST) has varied over the past half-billion years, a time in which evolutionary patterns of flora and fauna have had such an important influence on the evolution of climate, is essential for understanding the processes driving climate over that interval. Judd et al. present a record of GMST over the past 485 million years that they constructed by combining proxy data with climate modeling (see the Perspective by Mills). They found that GMST varied over a range from 11° to 36°C, with an “apparent” climate sensitivity of ∼8°C, about two to three times what it is today. —Jesse Smith
Subsurface Temperature Profiles
Het is vandaag Earth Overshoot Day: vanaf vandaag tot het einde van het jaar verbruikt de wereldbevolking meer dan onze planeet op een jaar aan grondstoffen en diensten kan leveren. Voor onze huidige levensstijl zijn eigenlijk 1,7 planeten aarde nodig, en dat kan uitdraaien op een ramp, waarschuwen experts. Earth Overshoot Day valt dit jaar ook een dag vroeger dan vorig jaar.
A carbon bomb is any fossil fuel extraction project that will generate more than one gigatonne of carbon dioxide (1GtCO2) over its remaining life.
Le satellite EarthCARE de l'Agence spatiale européenne a pris son envol mardi depuis la base de Vandenberg en Californie, à bord d'une fusée Falcon 9 de SpaceX. Sa mission : explorer en détail les effets des nuages sur le climat, un phénomène encore mal compris.
A UN meeting this week considered a motion on a suite of technologies known as ‘solar radiation modification’, but no consensus could be reached on the controversial topic.
The planetary boundaries concept presents a set of nine planetary boundaries within which humanity can continue to develop and thrive for generations to come
Juristen van ClientEarth hebben, samen met 14 ngo's, nieuwe juridische stappen ondernomen tegen INEOS, nu de petrochemiereus zijn plannen doorzet om Europa's grootste plasticproject te bouwen. De milieuorganisaties hebben vandaag een rechtszaak aangespannen tegen de Vlaamse overheid. Deze zaak markeert een nieuwe fase in de langdurige juridische strijd van de groep milieuorganisaties tegen 'Project One' van INEOS.
Even recapituleren. Op zondag 7 jan 2024 kreeg Ineos – na een verrassend positief advies van ANB – zijn huidige vergunning van de Vlaamse Regering. De vorige was onderuit gehaald op grond van de beroepsprocedure die de provincie Noord-Brabant had aangespannen. VlaReg werd toen door de Raad voor Vergunningenbetwistingen op de vingers getikt voor haar lossepolswerk aangaande de verwachte stikstofdepositie van Project One voorbij de Nederlandse grens. En al stond het in de sterren geschreven dat zowel de provincie Noord-Brabant als de provincie Zeeland opnieuw beroep zouden aantekenen en dat ook Client Earth opnieuw met een beroep ten gronde zou komen, toch startte Ineos op 8 januari full speed de constructiewerken in Lillo. Evident met de bedoeling om de weg van de voldongen feiten te kiezen en om de beroepsprocedures in snelheid te pakken. Mocht er een kink in de kabel komen, dan was er altijd nog de overheidswaarborg van een half miljard, waarvan overigens al 250 miljoen zijn geactiveerd. Poker à la Ratcliffe
Overall losses from natural disasters in 2023: US$ 250bn; more than 74,000 fatalities Insured global losses of US$ 95bn close to five-year average (US$ 105bn) and above the ten-year average (US$ 90bn) Earthquake in Turkey and Syria was the year’s most devastating humanitarian disaster Thunderstorms in North America and Europe more destructive than ever before: overall losses of US$ 76bn; insured losses US$ 58bn 2023 was the hottest year ever, with a large number of regional records broken
An easy way to start a long, heated debate is to mention global population. Thomas Malthus famously ignited furious arguments in the eighteenth century when
Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass displacement and financial ruin as planet warms
Plastic waste in aquatic environments may be severely disrupting the reproductive behavior of marine animals.
When Rishi Sunak granted 27 new North Sea licences this week, he wasn’t thinking about the survival of the living world, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot
September 2023 smashed the prior global temperature record. Hand-wringing about the magnitude of the temperature jump in September is not inappropriate, but it is more important to investigate the role of aerosol climate forcing – which we chose to leave unmeasured – in global climate change. Global temperature during the current El Nino provides a potential indirect assessment of change of the aerosol forcing. Global temperature in the current El Nino, to date, implies a strong acceleration of global warming for which the most likely explanation is a decrease of human-made aerosols as a result of reductions in China and from ship emissions. The current El Nino will probably be weaker than the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Ninos, making current warming even more significant. The current near-maximum solar irradiance adds a small amount to the major “forcing” mechanisms (GHGs, aerosols, and El Nino), but with no long-term effect. More important, the long dormant Southern Hemisphere polar amplification is probably com
Ahead of the UN’s SDG Summit (18-19 September), ground-breaking analyses shows how by enacting five ‘extraordinary turnarounds’ SDGs implementation can be accelerated.
This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary production drives Earth system biosphere functions, human appropriation of net primary production is proposed as a control variable for functional biosphere integrity. This boundary is also transgressed. Earth system modeling of different levels of the transgression of the climate and land system change boundaries illustrates that these anthropogenic impacts on Earth system must be considered in a systemic context.
First complete ‘scientific health check’ shows most global systems beyond stable range in which modern civilisation emerged
La séquestration du CO2 dans les sols agricoles est présentée comme une excellente stratégie pour atténuer le changement climatique. Mais est-ce réellement le cas ? Plusieurs pédologues ont exprimé leurs doutes lors de la Conférence sur les sols de Wageningen le 29 août.
Bonn and Geneva, 6 September 2023 (ECMWF and WMO) - Earth just had its hottest three months on record, according to the European Union-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) implemented by ECMWF. Global sea surface temperatures are at unprecedented highs for the third consecutive month and Antarctic sea ice extent remains at a record low for the time of year.
50 ans après le Rapport Meadows, le Club de Rome publie "Earth for All" (Terre pour Tous), un guide de survie pour l'humanité qui explore deux grands scénarios. Le statu-quo "trop peu trop tard" et le "pas de géant".
Morgen, op 2 augustus, zullen alle hulpbronnen al opgebruikt zijn die de planeet in een jaar kan genereren. Als iedereen aan het tempo van de Belgen zou consumeren, zou “Earth Overshoot Day” zelfs al op 26 maart gevallen zijn, zegt het Wereldnatuurfonds.
Climate breakdown and crop losses threaten our survival, but the ultra-rich find ever more creative ways to maintain the status quo, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot
As the Arctic warms, shrinking glaciers are exposing bubbling groundwater springs which could provide an underestimated source of the potent greenhouse gas methane, finds new research published in Nature Geoscience. The study, led by researchers from the University of Cambridge and the University Center in Svalbard, Norway, identified large stocks of methane gas leaking from groundwater springs unveiled by melting glaciers.
Going beyond climate disruption, the report by the Earth Commission group of scientists presents disturbing evidence that our planet faces growing crises of water availability, nutrient loading, ecosystem maintenance and aerosol pollution. These pose threats to the stability of life-support systems and worsen social equality.
Earth Day - Dag van de Aarde - is één van de grootste milieu protestbewegingen ter wereld. Het begon in 1970 en vindt elk jaar plaats op 22 april. Ongeveer 1 miljard mensen uit meer dan 190 landen nemen deel aan demonstraties, projecten e...
Several nations plan to build new coal power plants, with China alone approving nearly 100 gigawatts. Each gigawatt is the equivalent of installing more than 3 million solar panels.
Une étude démographique commandée par le Club de Rome présente de nouvelles perspectives sur l’évolution de la population mondiale d’ici la fin du siècle. Cette étude réalisée par Earth4all revoit en effet à la baisse les projections sur le nombre d’habitants qui peupleront la Terre en 2100. Alors que les démographes de l’ONU estiment que, à ce moment-là, notre planète comptera 9,7 milliards d’humains, le rapport d’Earth4all avance un chiffre plus faible compris entre 6 et 7,3 milliards.
Population likely to peak sooner and lower than expected with beneficial results – but environment is priority
Researchers found that exceeding the 2C increase has a 50% chance of happening by mid-century
Energy and extractive industry giants are targeting environmentalists with racketeering charges.
Fossil fuels, fisheries and farming: the world’s most destructive industries are protected – and subsidised – by governments
Flash droughts can develop within a few weeks, causing water shortages, damaging crops and worsening fire risks.
MIT researchers have confirmed that Earth harbors a “stabilizing feedback” mechanism that acts over hundreds of thousands of years to keep global temperatures within a steady, habitable range.“On the one hand, it’s good because we know that today’s global warming will eventually be canceled out through this stabilizing feedback,” says Constantin Arnscheidt, a graduate student in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS). “But on the other hand, it will take hundreds of thousands of years to happen, so not fast enough to solve our present-day issues.”
Bewoners uit heel België spannen een rechtszaak aan tegen de regionale overheden omdat zij hebben nagelaten de gezondheid van de burgers te beschermen tegen schadelijke niveaus van luchtvervuiling.
Lost nets, lines and hooks trap wildlife for years as they float in the ocean, sink to the bottom or are washed ashore
Earth For All is both an antidote to despair and a road map to a better future. Using powerful state-of-the-art computer modeling to explore policies likely to deliver the most good for the majority of people, a leading group of scientists and economists from around the world present five extraordinary turnarounds to achieve prosperity for all within planetary limits in a single generation.
Äerdchëff, le premier “earthship” (géonef) du Luxembourg, est sorti de terre à Redange. Un bâtiment quasiment autonome en énergie et en eau, en partie construit en utilisant certains types de déchets. Le gouvernement luxembourgeois veut en faire un projet pilote.
This Southern Ocean warming and its associated impacts are effectively irreversible on human time scales, because it takes millennia for heat trapped deep in the ocean to be released back into the atmosphere. This means changes happening now will be felt for generations to come – and those changes are only set to get worse, unless we can stop carbon dioxide emissions and achieve net zero.
Même si la sécheresse amène de nombreux cours d’eau européens à des niveaux record et endommage la biodiversité, la menace d’inondations catastrophiques à la suite d’une période de sécheresse se cache en arrière-plan.
Experts call for a new ‘Climate Endgame’ research agenda, and say far too little work has gone into understanding the mechanisms by which rising temperatures might pose a catastrophic risk to society and humanity.
Earth Overshoot Day is de dag waarop de vraag van de mensheid naar ecologische hulpbronnen dat wat de aarde in dat jaar kan aanleveren, overstijgt.
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In a major environmental case, the court has made clear that it would rather represent the interests of corporations and the super-rich than the needs and desires of the vast majority of Americans – or people on Earth
Begin juni 1972 en tijdens de afgelopen week was er in Stockholm een VN Earth Summit. De eerste leidde tot een reeks van Earth Summits, de oprichting van het United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) en een reeks van andere initiatieven, zoals het IPCC. In 1972 maakte men zich grote zorgen over het milieu en de schade die wij veroorzaken. Dat doen we nu, vijftig jaar later nog. We hebben gefaald. De kans op een duurzame en rechtvaardige wereld neemt af, maar die kans bestaat wel degelijk; als we willen. En wie zou dat niet willen?
Humankind is revealed as simultaneously insignificant and utterly dominant in the grand scheme of life on Earth by a groundbreaking new assessment of all life on the planet. The world’s 7.6 billion people represent just 0.01% of all living things, according to the study. Yet since the dawn of civilisation, humanity has caused the loss of 83% of all wild mammals and half of plants, while livestock kept by humans abounds.
A new survey from YouGov asked Americans for their thoughts on climate change, including what they believe its potential impacts could be and whether they believe they and their country are doing enough to tackle climate change. The findings suggest that most Americans anticipate dire consequences to climate change, but many believe there are still ways to avoid the worst of it.
Most marine-terminating glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere are shrinking; some have completely left the water.
Patagonian ice fields are among some of the fastest-melting glaciers on the planet. As these glaciers disappear, the earth that once lay beneath them is rebounding upwards at rates much faster than expected.
Water vapor is Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas. It’s responsible for about half of Earth’s greenhouse effect — the process that occurs when gases in Earth’s atmosphere trap the Sun’s heat. Greenhouse gases keep our planet livable. Without them, Earth’s surface temperature would be about 59 degrees Fahrenheit (33 degrees Celsius) colder. Water vapor is also a key part of Earth’s water cycle: the path that all water follows as it moves around Earth’s atmosphere, land, and ocean as liquid water, solid ice, and gaseous water vapor.
Tree diversity is fundamental for forest ecosystem stability and services. However, because of limited available data, estimates of tree diversity at large geographic domains still rely heavily on published lists of species descriptions that are geographically uneven in coverage. These limitations have precluded efforts to generate a global perspective. Here, based on a ground-sourced global database, we estimate the number of tree species at biome, continental, and global scales. We estimated a global tree richness (≈73,300) that is ≈14% higher than numbers known today, with most undiscovered species being rare, continentally endemic, and tropical or subtropical. These results highlight the vulnerability of global tree species diversity to anthropogenic changes.
We submit that the safe operating space of the planetary boundary of novel entities is exceeded since annual production and releases are increasing at a pace that outstrips the global capacity for assessment and monitoring. The novel entities boundary in the planetary boundaries framework refers to entities that are novel in a geological sense and that could have large-scale impacts that threaten the integrity of Earth system processes. We review the scientific literature relevant to quantifying the boundary for novel entities and highlight plastic pollution as a particular aspect of high concern. An impact pathway from production of novel entities to impacts on Earth system processes is presented.
Berkeley Earth, a California-based non-profit research organization, has been preparing independent analyses of global mean temperature changes since 2013. The following is our report on global mean temperature during 2021.
Une agence de publicité vient de créer “boite noire de la terre”, The Earth Black Box. La boîte noire de la terre est le fruit de l’imagination de l’agence de publicité australienne Clemenger BBDO en collaboration avec des chercheurs de l’Université de Tasmanie.
Il y a quelques jours, la Chine a annoncé la création de "China Rare Earth Group", une entreprise directement attachée à l’État, qui rassemble trois acteurs majeurs de l’extraction des terres rares. Une annonce qui n’étonne pas : le pays est, depuis dix ans, le leader dans ce marché : il assure près de 95% des terres rares dans le monde, s’assurant par là d’être un acteur incontournable dans le développement des technologies.