Jean-Marc Jancovici

Lethal temperatures ​and wildfires have exposed a widening gulf between voters demanding ​action and politicians unwilling to confront the long-term choices global heating requires

What places on Earth are most resilient to global catastrophic risk (GCR)? We provide the first study of what locations are more resilient against the impacts of nuclear war, near-Earth objects, large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, large-scale cyberattacks, high altitude electromagnetic pulse, geomagnetic storms and pandemics. This shows there is no place on Earth which is resilient against all kinds of GCR. Australia shows resilience across the widest range of GCR scenarios in the literature we reviewed, but even for it, continued international cooperation and trade are essential. Across the different risks, common resilience factors that show up most are geographic isolation (e.g. islands), self-sufficiency (especially in food production), high governance quality (more democratic and lower inequality) and decentralization to mitigate single point catastrophic failures (e.g. impacting trade or food supply). Many of these factors stand in tension with each other and trade-offs are required to balance between d

Kiev élargit ses cibles en Russie et s'attaque désormais à des sites liés au commerce et au transport de marchandises. Une stratégie qui vise à perturber les infrastructures utilisées par l'économie russe.

Climate models simulate a wide range of 21st century warming for a given forcing scenario. Constraining this uncertainty is a central challenge in climate science because of its implications for climate policy and adaptation. The transient climate response (TCR) is a key idealized metric used to quantify future warming in response to an exponentially increasing CO2 concentration. Climate models span a range of 1.3–3 K for TCR. In attempts to constrain this range, emergent constraints on TCR based on historical temperature trends consistently pointed toward TCR values at the lower end of the range of models. However, recent evidence from trends in the short-wave and long-wave components of Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) at the top-of-atmosphere suggests that models with higher TCR lie closer to the observed EEI trends. Here, we reconcile this discrepancy and provide a revised range for TCR of 1.9–2.6 K. Using a statistical variability-filtering approach, we show that previous temperature-based constraints wer

Un article de recherche du FMI remet en cause les fondements mêmes de la logique de transition écologique. Certes, les énergies propres progressent, mais sans qu’elles se substituent aux hydrocarbures, en raison d’une constante augmentation de la consommation énergétique. La démonstration des auteurs pulvérise la logique à l’œuvre depuis trois décennies.

Europe is full of buried explosives left over from 20th century wars, and wildfires are now reaching them more regularly.

Exclusive: As wildfires rage, Frank Elderson says more work needed to assess risk from collapse of ecosystem services

Pour la troisième fois en quelques jours, un site logistique du géant russe de l'e-commerce Wildberries a été touché par une frappe ukrainienne.

In België zijn dit jaar al 117 natuurbranden geteld, al 2 meer dan in heel 2025. Vooral de provincie Limburg wordt zwaar getroffen. Dat blijkt uit cijfers van de UGent: "De impact van klimaatverandering beperkt zich niet tot de landen rond de Middellandse Zee. Ook in België stijgt het risico", waarschuwen de onderzoekers.

Depuis le 18 juillet, l’Ukraine multiplie les bombardements visant les entrepôts de Wildberries, l’équivalent russe d’Amazon. Avec ces attaques, Kiev veut rappeler à la population russe que le conflit a un impact immédiat sur les civils, et par la même occasion viser un groupe russe accusé de soutenir l’effort de guerre du Kremlin.

Global energy and materials are essential to the functioning of the economy and have significant implications for macroeconomics and the environment. At the same time, the world is not on track to meet Paris Agreement goals. This paper documents two stylized facts that connect these observations. First, the world economy is characterized by large embedded emissions and materials: different energies and materials are deeply entwined and interdependent. This has historically led to additive – rather than substitution – dynamics in energy and materials on a global scale. Second, historically there has been a strong positive correlation between efficiency in resource use and total resource use at a global scale. We synthesize these observations by introducing the Generalized Jevons Paradox (GJP). We argue that the GJP reflects the direct and indirect energy/material demand effects of long-term energy and material interdependencies, themselves shaped by market and geoeconomic power, trade arrangements, and financi

Na twintig jaar komt een einde aan het moratorium op soja uit het Amazonegebied, onder druk door wetgeving, de politiek en juridische stappen van de Braziliaanse agro-industrie. Daarmee dreigt jarenlange vooruitgang in de strijd tegen ontbossing tenietgedaan te worden, stelt een artikel in Science, en dat kan leiden tot ten minste 1,4 miljoen hectare extra ontbossing.

Exclusive: High-level documents show how Copa Cogeca worked to weaken legislation to protect climate and wildlife

Le 4 juin dernier, le World Inequality Lab (WIL) a lancé le « Global Justice Project », un programme destiné à « stimuler la recherche, l’élaboration des politiques et l’engagement citoyen afin de façonner un 21ème siècle plus juste, plus démocratique et plus durable ». Pour l’heure, il prend la forme d’un rapport, A Plan for Equality & Prosperity Within Planetary Boundaries, qui prolonge sept working papers du WIL – près de 970 pages de travail scientifique. L’effort est colossal. Comme le résume l’un des co-auteurs de l’étude, l’économiste Lucas Chancel, spécialiste des inégalités (Insoutenables inégalités, 2021) et de l’énergie (Énergie et inégalités, 2025) : « 24 mois de travail, 45 chercheurs venus du monde entier, combinant les connaissances issues de l’économie, de l’histoire et des sciences du climat ». À l’échelle de l’histoire de la macroéconomie, c’est l’équivalent d’une pyramide.

While the term “Anthropocene” is well established across scientific disciplines and social spheres, interpretations are diverse. Taking account of the 2024 rejection by a geological commission to accept the Anthropocene as a geological epoch and the related scientific debate, here we offer a future-oriented perspective from the viewpoint of Earth system science. We describe different pathways in the Anthropocene up to the year 3,000, systematically characterizing them according to impacts and causes. We discuss the enormous global consequences of anthropogenic pressures on the Earth system and quantify the corresponding long-term commitment to change. Regarding the causes, we conservatively explore best-case and middle-of-the road emission scenarios, in combination with climate sensitivities drawn from within the IPCC likely range. We also discuss implications for Earth system resilience that could result in what we call worst case scenarios for Anthropocene outcomes. We conclude that, beyond the slow pace of

Terwijl politici bewapening steeds vaker voorstellen als noodzaak, pleit Stijn Gryp, nationaal secretaris van het ACV, voor een ander idee van veiligheid: betaalbare zorg, onderwijs, woningen en een sterke samenleving. “Een betere toekomst voor onze kinderen bouw je niet met oorlogstuig”, zegt hij in dit uitgebreide interview.

Exxon warns oil inventories will hit dangerously low levels in weeks, forcing prices to shoot higher. […]

Brutal El Nino, drought, war threatens food supply

Fidel Castro waarschuwde in 1992 tijdens de VN-Milieuconferentie in Rio al ‘dat de mens als biologische soort door de snelle en progressieve liquidatie van de natuur dreigt te verdwijnen’. Maar het is pas sinds een tiental jaar dat Cuba met de installatie van grote zonnepanelenparken de eerste, grote stappen zet op het vlak van hernieuwbare energie.

World is approaching point where no one can shut down a rogue AI, says director of body behind research