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Tipping elements within the Earth system are increasingly well understood. Scientists have identified more than 25 parts of the Earth’s climate system that are likely to have “tipping points” – thresholds where a small additional change in global warming will cause them to irreversibly shift into a new state. The “tipping” of these systems – which include the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the Greenland ice sheet – would have profound consequences for both the biosphere and people. More recent research suggests that triggering one tipping element could cause subsequent changes in other tipping elements, potentially leading to a “tipping cascade”. For example, a collapsed AMOC could lead to dieback of the Amazon rainforest and hasten the melt of the Greenland ice sheet.

Franchir les points de bascule écologiques aurait un coût économique gigantesque, selon plusieurs études scientifiques récentes. Des données qui rappellent l’urgence d’atténuer la crise écologique avant d’être face à des conséquences irréversibles en cascade.

We're nearly halfway through the 2020s, dubbed the most decisive decade for action on climate change. Where exactly do things stand? Climate impact scholar Johan Rockström offers the most up-to-date scientific assessment of the state of the planet and explains what must be done to preserve Earth's resilience to human pressure.

For many of us the climate crisis mainly calls to mind rising global temperatures, but the crisis goes far beyond this – we are at risk of pushing our planet across climate ‘tipping points,’ critical thresholds where small changes can lead to abrupt and irreversible shifts in the Earth’s climate system. One major element in climate tipping is a huge system of ocean currents, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is responsible for Europe's relatively mild climate. Past climate patterns show that these currents can switch abruptly between today’s vigorous flow and a much weaker flow state. A future shutdown would have potentially devastating consequences in Europe and around the world.

An international team of scientists has warned against relying on nature providing straightforward 'early warning' indicators of a climate disaster, as new mathematical modeling shows new fascinating aspects of the complexity of the dynamics of climate. It suggests that the climate system could be more unpredictable than previously thought.

Cruciale kantelpunten in het klimaatsysteem van de aarde komen in sneltempo dichterbij. Dat blijkt uit het grootste onderzoek ooit naar “tipping points”. Meer dan tweehonderd wetenschappers werkten mee aan een tekst met waarschuwingen en aanbevelingen, die is gepresenteerd op de klimaattop in Dubai (COP28).

Humanity faces ‘devastating domino effects’ including mass displacement and financial ruin as planet warms

Take part in the new scientific discussion about looming abrupt changes in the Earth system. This new webinar series invites scientists interested in tipping elements and the broader public to attend.

Amazon rainforest and other ecosystems could collapse ‘very soon’, researchers warn

Vast releases of gas, along with future ‘methane bombs’, represent huge threat – but curbing emissions would rapidly reduce global heating