veille.eu

We infer that 2026 is likely to be the warmest year in the period of instrumental data, based on a physics-based approach with identifiable assumptions. This approach may help us learn something in 2026 about the mechanisms of climate change. The figures in this post and our other current papers will be continually updated on our website,2 when they remain relevant. We are also now on Substack3.

Dr. Hansen periodically posts commentary on his recent papers and presentations and on other topics of interest to an e-mail list. To receive announcements of new postings, please click here.

The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) earlier this year issued a forecast of a strong (“Super”) El Nino to begin later this year and peak in early 2027, as we have discussed in two earlier posts.3,4 El Ninos are important because of the large effects that they have on global weather, even though those effects are not always consistent from one El Nino to another. El Ninos have even greater effect in combination with ongoing global warming, e.g., Radfar et al.5 find that the combination of an El Nino with increasingly prevalent marine heat waves results in tropical cyclones consistently producing higher maximum wind speeds, storm surges, and precipitation rates, and Liu et al.6 describe evidence of El Ninos strengthened control over global climate anomalies in a warmer world

The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but we suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing, not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.

l'observatoire US de la dérégulation environnementale

Climate sensitivity is substantially higher than IPCC’s best estimate (3°C for doubled CO2), a conclusion we reach with greater than 99 percent confidence. We also show that global climate forcing by aerosols became stronger (increasingly negative) during 1970-2005, unlike IPCC’s best estimate of aerosol forcing. High confidence in these conclusions is based on a broad analysis approach. IPCC’s underestimates of climate sensitivity and aerosol cooling follow from their disproportionate emphasis on global climate modeling, an approach that will not yield timely, reliable, policy advice.

Des milliers de formulaires de candidature ont été dérobés. Parmi eux : le dossier de l’actuel prétendant démocrate à la mairie de New York, qui a été transmis à des médias.

Why is the Trump Administration trying to kill a small space science institute in New York City? Explanation begins with Galileo’s method of scientific inquiry and ends with the role of special interest money in the United States government. Galileo improved the telescope, allowing clearer observations of the planets and the Sun. Galileo differed from his peers, as he was unafraid to challenge authority. He claimed that the world should be understood based on observations, and he spoke directly to the public. He obtained philanthropic support for his observations and openly described the conclusion that Earth was not the center of the solar system – Earth revolved around the Sun.

La ministre de l’éducation américaine, Linda McMahon, reproche à l’université de ne pas avoir protégé les étudiants juifs du campus malgré des demandes en ce sens.

L’établissement new-yorkais a perdu 400 millions de dollars de subventions, dont 250 millions pour la santé. Il tente de se réformer pour récupérer ces financements coupés par l’administration Trump, qui mène une offensive contre des institutions d’enseignement jugées trop progressistes.

Un établissement sous tutelle. L’université new-yorkaise Columbia a accepté vendredi 21 mars d’engager les réformes drastiques demandées par l’administration de Donald Trump, pour ne pas perdre ses 400 millions de dollars de subventions fédérales. Il s’agit d’une concession majeure pour la prestigieuse université, depuis plusieurs semaines sous le feu du président américain.

We must learn from the past. We cannot remain silent in the face of authoritarian attacks on our peers, even if they have not yet come for us.

L'administration Trump a annoncé vendredi la "suppression immédiate" de 400 millions de dollars de subventions fédérales à l'université privée new-yorkaise Columbia, épicentre des manifestations pro-palestiniennes au printemps 2024, qu'elle accuse d'inaction face "à des actes antisémites".

Solvay surfe sur la vague de la transition écologique pour augmenter les capacités de ses usines et continuer à fabriquer des PFAS à destination des batteries de véhicules électriques. Malgré les différents scandales environnementaux dans lequel le groupe belge est impliqué, une enquête réalisée en collaboration avec The Examination, le Post and Courier et Columbia Investigation Journalism révèle que l’industriel est loin d’avoir renoncé à ces substances.

Global warming is accelerating because the drive for warming, Earth’s energy imbalance, has doubled in the past decade. Measurement of the acceleration is hampered by unforced tropical (El Nino/La Nina) variability, but a good measuring stick is provided by warming between successive large El Ninos. Strengthening of the current (2023-24) El Nino has raised it to a level similar to the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Ninos. The first six months of the current El Nino are 0.39°C warmer than the same six months of the 2015-16 El Nino, a global warming rate of 0.49°C/decade, consistent with expectation of a large acceleration of global warming. We expect the 12-month mean temperature by May 2024 to eliminate any doubt about global warming acceleration. Subsequent decline of the 12-month temperature below 1.5°C will likely be limited, confirming that the 1.5°C limit has already been passed.