La veille

The Kenyan marine ecologist David Obura is chair of a panel of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the world’s leading natural scientists. For many decades, his speciality has been corals, but he has warned that the next generation may not see their glory because so many reefs are now “flickering out across the world”.

News and views on the coming collapse

This Contemplation is the result of my beginning to put together a different one that’s focussing upon an academic article I’ve been reading (Collapse, Environment, and Society) but that got me thinking about the academic ‘debate’ regarding what ‘societal collapse’ is, how it may–or may not–unfold for our current experiment in large, complex societies, and how things are perceived in the moment by those experiencing societal change. The ‘debate’ (centred more-or-less on the question: Do societies actually ‘collapse’ or are they ‘merely’ shifting/transforming/adapting to changing conditions?) is rather ‘academic’ in that in the grand scheme of things it’s intellectually interesting but doesn’t have much to do with the on-the-ground, real-life experiences and concerns of most humans in a society–especially if they are experiencing some of the more ‘problematic’ consequences of collapse/transformation.

A subreddit tracking apocalyptic news in a calm, logical way comforts users who believe the end The threat of nuclear war, genocide in Gaza, ChatGPT reducing human cognitive ability, another summer of record heat. Every day brings a torrent of unimaginable horror. It used to be weeks between disasters, now we’re lucky to get hours.

It’s actually pretty obvious: the climate catastrophe is escalating, climate collapse has in all probability already begun, all the while fossil fuel infrastructures are being expanded all around the world. More and more people are turning away from climate action, while more and more people, no longer only in the global South, are suffering the consequences of climate chaos.

Recent simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) indicate that a tipping event of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would cause Europe to cool by several degrees. This AMOC tipping event was found under constant pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing, while global warming likely limits this AMOC-induced cooling response. Here, we quantify the European temperature responses under different AMOC regimes and climate change scenarios. A strongly reduced AMOC state and intermediate global warming (C, Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) has a profound cooling effect on Northwestern Europe with more intense cold extremes. The largest temperature responses are found during the winter months and these responses are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic sea-ice extent. Enhanced North Atlantic storm track activity under an AMOC collapse results in substantially larger day-to-day temperature fluctuations. We conclude that the (far) future European temperatures are dependent o

Ten kinds of possible collapses examined.

A new point in history has been reached, entomologists say, as climate-led species’ collapse moves up the food chain even in supposedly protected regions free of pesticides

What are the most significant groups in this complex network of our emergent ‘collapse culture’? These groups don’t cohere into a single unified culture that understands itself as singular. Instead, the are thinly connected inside the complex of contemporary culture, a set of linked clusters. Between them, ideas do circulate, but the links between them, as I will return to, are more often established through intermixing in the heads of their proponents, however chaotically this takes place.....

Now that the collapse of our political, economic, social and ecological systems is accelerating, the signs of this collapse, including scapegoating, corruption, and social disorder are becoming more obvious. This is the seventh of a series of articles on some of these signposts.

I’m used to environmentalists and futurists writing about The Limits to Growth. I’m less used to seeing investment writers mention research that’s linked to The Limits of Growth. But that’s what Joachim Klement did in his daily newsletter recently.

I’m used to environmentalists and futurists writing about The Limits to Growth. I’m less used to seeing investment writers mention research that’s linked to The Limits of Growth. But that’s what Joachim Klement did in his daily newsletter recently. Of course, anyone who writes about Limits of Growth has to do all the usual disclaimers first. This is because the combination of the words “limits” and “growth” in the title produced a lot of critical responses, on a range from straight-up hatchet jobs which misrepresented the book, to people who didn’t appear to understand the systems dynamics model that sat behind it.

Climate change is driving rising global temperatures, ecological degradation, and widespread human suffering. Yet, as a collective, humanity has failed to implement sufficient changes to mitigate these threats. This paper introduces the concept of “global narcissism” as a speculative lens to analyze the psychological barriers to climate action. By examining different levels of narcissism and their manifestations in human responses to climate change, this framework highlights key obstacles to meaningful action. While humanity is diverse, and lived experiences vary greatly, this perspective offers a way to discuss patterns of response and resistance. A central challenge lies in humanity’s difficulty in recognizing its symbiotic relationship with the non-human world. Through the metaphor of “global narcissism” this paper explores how humanity’s response to ecological crisis mirrors narcissistic defense mechanisms and suggests a collapse is taking place. This framework provides insights into how psychological int

It is said that George W. Bush Jr. decided to invade Iraq in 2003 because he had read some papers on oil depletion by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). Of course, it may be just a legend, but I don’t see it as impossible, and perhaps not even improbable. Politicians make decisions on the basis of vague ideas, often on the spur of the moment, and in many cases making terrible mistakes. But they normally understand some of the critical elements that keep alive the system. For the US, the critical resource was, and still is, crude oil. So, it is possible that Bush thought that it was necessary to compensate for the decline of the US oil production by seizing the Iraqi resources. That didn’t necessarily imply to start a war, just like filling the tank of your car doesn’t imply shooting dead the service station operator. But that’s the way some people’s minds work.

For years, climate scientists have warned us of rising temperatures, extreme weather, and ecological breakdown. Now, the very people who calculate financial risk—actuaries—are sounding the alarm. Their latest report projects a 50% collapse in global GDP within decades. That’s not a recession. That’s economic devastation on a scale we’ve never seen.

Collapse isn’t loud. It’s not a Hollywood explosion, not a sudden black hole swallowing the United States overnight. There’s no singular moment when the world collectively gasps and realizes everything has come undone. Instead, collapse is a slow, grinding process — insidious, creeping, and patient.

My childhood was perpetually filled with creative people. My parents, both musicians, often hosted gatherings of artists, writers, and performers. At each event a recurring theme emerged: the struggle of the creative mind in a world that seemed increasingly indifferent, if not hostile, to their contributions. Each person laid out what became a very clear window into how our systems exploited and marginalized the most creatively intelligent.

Climate change will set the parameters of our post-Princeton lives. The fires that devastated the Palisades earlier this month were, as our nation’s exasperated and exhausted climate scientists continue to remind us, only harbingers of the floods, tornados, and heatwaves to come. Global warming is surpassing the climate models that scientists built in the 2010s and early 2020s that already forecasted a borderline-apocalyptic future. Undoubtedly, by the time current Princeton students reach middle age, they will have witnessed a slew of societal structures sag — or collapse entirely — under the weight of extreme weather events and ever-worsening ecological decline.

Elon Musk has achieved astonishing power in Trump’s administration – and spent the weekend wielding it

Thoughts on the Collapse of Civilization

The CIO of Goldman Sachs has said that in the next year, companies at the forefront will begin to use AI agents as if they were employees — as team members with tasks to do.

The abrupt loss of many species from a system is generally attributed to a breakdown in ecological functioning. As species are sequentially knocked out, the whole community becomes unstable, and it all comes crashing down. Another mechanism that may be at play. My colleagues and I argue that despite the fact life on Earth displays such great variety, many species that live together appear to share remarkably similar thermal limits. That is to say, individuals of different species can tolerate temperatures up to similar points.

The year 2024 wasn’t just another chapter in the unfolding climate saga; it felt like the plot twist no one wanted to believe. For decades, climate scientists warned of ifs — if we pass this tipping…

L'apocalypse serait-elle devenue un sujet d'étude aussi banal que la photosynthèse ou les fractales ? Ces deux dernières décennies, le vocabulaire de la fin du monde s’est métamorphosé en un champ lexical scientifique florissant. Des concepts comme l’anthropocène ou les planetary boundaries ont proliféré dans les revues académiques. Des notions plus anciennes comme la polycrise d’Edgar Morin et le collapse ont resurgi récemment, transcendant les frontières disciplinaires, tandis que les cascading failures, les wicked problems ou les compound risks sont devenus incontournables dans l’analyse des risques.

I mapped out a likely scenario, based on a synthesis of a variety of estimates combined with a dose of interpretation. While I can't predict the future, if we continue business as usual we'll soon witness compounding destruction of our infrastructure, economy and agricultural systems. A reasonable estimate suggests cascading civilizational and social collapses by mid-century - just 25 years from now.

The climate and ecological crisis poses an unprecedented challenge, with scientists playing a critical role in how society understands and responds. This study examined how 27 environmentally concerned scientists from 11 countries construct the future in the context of climate change, applying a critical discursive psychology analysis. The degree to which the future is constructed as predetermined or transformable impacts both the urgency and scope of proposed actions. ...

In this article, we’ll see why cascading disruptions of environmental and political systems are entangled and mutually reinforcing. We’ll also try to identify the next stages of global collapse, and explore the options for individuals and communities seeking to survive and to prevent as much harm and suffering as possible.

Several high-profile research papers have brought renewed attention to the potential collapse of a crucial system of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, as we discussed in part one of this two-part post. Huge uncertainties in both the timing and details of potential impacts of such a collapse remain.

A short definition of the polycrisis, including global environmental, geopolitical, and economic aspects.

In March 2022, a New York City-sized ice shelf collapsed in East Antarctica, long thought to be relatively stable against rapid change. The Conger-Glenzer ice shelf collapsed following decades of ocean-induced thinning, allowing its long-stabilizing features to transform into destabilizing ones.

The idea that the AMOC is headed to collapse is very controversial, but it is clearly weakening. If the circulation did collapse, the consequences on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean would be immense—including large changes in temperature and a spike in weather-related disasters.

The Atlantic Ocean's most vital ocean current is showing troubling signs of reaching a disastrous tipping point. Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf tells Live Science what the impacts could be.

The network of Atlantic ocean currents keeping the Earth's climate stable are far closer to collapse than first estimated, scientists warn.

AMOC collapse would bring severe global climate repercussions, with Europe bearing the brunt of the consequences.

Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why Amoc breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life

The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is one of the global tipping points that will spell doom for our children's futures.

If modern societies are breaking down, is there a political movement ready to soften the collapse and begin anew? Or do we need new ideas and organisations for collective action? Might a local focus be the only meaningful approach as industrial consumer systems decline? Or is this a period that calls for greater international solidarity with those suffering the most? I think the conversations and initiatives in the Francophone world will provide us many insights on these questions, for a number of reasons, which I’ll come to in a moment.

The average size of monitored wildlife populations has shrunk by 73% since 1970.

L'apocalypse serait-elle devenue un sujet d'étude aussi banal que la photosynthèse ou les fractales ? Ces deux dernières décennies, le vocabulaire de la fin du monde s’est métamorphosé en un champ lexical scientifique florissant. Des concepts comme l’anthropocène ou les planetary boundaries ont proliféré dans les revues académiques. Des notions plus anciennes comme la polycrise d’Edgar Morin et le collapse ont resurgi récemment, transcendant les frontières disciplinaires, tandis que les cascading failures, les wicked problems ou les compound risks sont devenus incontournables dans l’analyse des risques.

As a six-year investigation into the Thwaites glacier in Antarctica wraps up, the scientists involved are pessimistic for the future of this glacier and the consequences for sea level rise

Several studies in recent years have suggested the crucial system — the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC — could be on course for collapse, weakened by warmer ocean temperatures and disrupted saltiness caused by human-induced climate change. But the new research, which is being peer-reviewed and hasn’t yet been published in a journal, uses a state-of-the-art model to estimate when it could collapse, suggesting a shutdown could happen between 2037 and 2064.

There is increasing concern that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may collapse this century with a disrupting societal impact on large parts of the world. Preliminary estimates of the probability of such an AMOC collapse have so far been based on conceptual models and statistical analyses of proxy data. Here, we provide observationally based estimates of such probabilities from reanalysis data. We first identify optimal observation regions of an AMOC collapse from a recent global climate model simulation. Salinity data near the southern boundary of the Atlantic turn out to be optimal to provide estimates of the time of the AMOC collapse in this model. Based on the reanalysis products, we next determine probability density functions of the AMOC collapse time. The collapse time is estimated between 2037-2064 (10-90% CI) with a mean of 2050 and the probability of an AMOC collapse before the year 2050 is estimated to be 59±17%.

When it comes to writing about climate change … or energy transition … or resource depletion … the new “it” word seems to be COLLAPSE. Collapse is everywhere. But collapse is an inherently fuzzy…

Un débat enregistré lors des premières rencontres d'Adaptation radicale, à Villeneuve d'Ascq les 17-18 et 19 Octobre 2023

The Amazon rainforest is facing a barrage of pressures that might tip it into large-scale ecosystem collapse as soon as 2050, according to new research Wednesday warning of dire consequences for the region and the world. The Amazon, which holds more than 10 percent of the world's biodiversity, helps stabilize the global climate by storing the equivalent of around two decades of emissions of planet-warming carbon dioxide.

A crucial system of ocean currents may already be on course to collapse, according to a new report, with alarming implications for sea level rise and global weather — leading temperatures to plunge dramatically in some regions and rise in others. Using exceptionally complex and expensive computing systems, scientists found a new way to detect an early warning signal for the collapse of these currents, according to the study published Friday in the journal Science Advances. And as the planet warms, there are already indications it is heading in this direction.

Disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current could freeze Europe, scorch the tropics and increase sea level rise in the North Atlantic. The tipping point may be closer than predicted in the IPCC’s latest assessment.

The new version of the “Seneca Effect” blog on Substack is doing reasonably well, so I thought it was time to prepare a page that explains what the Seneca Effect is and what it can teach us. (image by Dall-E) During the 1st Century AD, the Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca observed the start of the disintegration of the Roman Empire. It was a process that would take a few more centuries to complete, but that was already evident to those who were willing to look beyond the surface of the still powerful Empire.

Societies and political structures, like the humans they serve, appear to become more fragile as they age, according to an analysis of hundreds of pre-modern societies.

The collapse of civilization is becoming very obvious, yet most people still don't know. Here are three reasons why.

World Meteorological Organization says 2023 will be hottest year on record, leaving ‘trail of devastation and despair’

Climate Change is rapidly accelerating and will lead to the collapse of civilization in the lifetimes of most people alive today. Here's why.

Scientists warn of unlivable heat and food shortages after analyzing 35 planetary vital signs.

Life on planet Earth is under siege. We are now in an uncharted territory. For several decades, scientists have consistently warned of a future marked by extreme climatic conditions because of escalating global temperatures caused by ongoing human activities that release harmful greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, time is up. We are seeing the manifestation of those predictions as an alarming and unprecedented succession of climate records are broken, causing profoundly distressing scenes of suffering to unfold. We are entering an unfamiliar domain regarding our climate crisis, a situation no one has ever witnessed firsthand in the history of humanity.

Even if there were no climate change, civilization would still collapse in the next few decades. Here's why.

Catastrophic climate change and the collapse of human societies By Josep Peñuelas, Sandra Nogué National Science Review, Volume 10, Issue 6, June 2023 The scientific community has focused the agend…

If you've ever seen the movie Soylent Green, you know it's not about cannibalism. It's about the banality of social collapse. It's not quick. It's a slow burn. Nobody shows any sense of urgency about anything. Everyone still watches talk shows, even if they have to pedal a bike to generate electricity for their television. Nobody under 50 remembers anything better. Here's the plot twist: It's not that corporations are using people as the main ingredient in everyone's favorite new food. It's

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emi

A collapse would bring catastrophic climate impacts but scientists disagree over the new analysis

Climate breakdown and crop losses threaten our survival, but the ultra-rich find ever more creative ways to maintain the status quo, says Guardian columnist George Monbiot