English references

Without continued investment in these fields, the world would lose the equivalent of Brazil and Norway’s combined production from the global oil balance each year

Gavin Newsom says Trump is a ‘gift’ to the climate cause for dispelling notions of fossil fuel energy security

New hires and comments in interviews show that the AI giant is using its capabilities against dissenters.

As the UN gathers, signatories from Bernie Sanders to Yeb Saño issue an open letter calling for clean power for all.

The ecological concept of human carrying capacity is necessarily complicated because human beings are the ‘ultimate ecosystem engineers’ who moderate the environment for their benefit. For at least the last few hundred years, human ingenuity, access to massive stocks of fossil fuels, and technological development have driven facilitation whereby increasing human abundance has promoted higher population growth rates. However, this positive relationship broke down during the 1950s, and by 1962, the global human population entered a phase where the growth rate consistently declined as population increased. The onset of this negative phase occurred 8 years before a global biocapacity deficit began in 1970. The onset of the negative phase also varies regionally, with the lowest-income and highest fertility regions entering this phase later than higher-income regions. A Ricker logistic model fitted to the negative phase predicts that the global population could reach 11.7–12.4 billion people between 2067 and 2076.

“The battle to feed all of humanity is over,” Stanford biologist and ecologist Paul Erhlich declared on the first page of his 1968 best-seller, “The Population Bomb.” Because the “stork had passed the plow,” he predicted, “hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death.”

New report predicts a heavy toll from Nigeria to the US – and comes on top of existing impacts of the climate crisis

Exclusive: Intelligence officers say Russian campaign could intensify ‘in months, not years’ – but that panic risks playing into Kremlin psy-ops

Guardian investigation reveals fossil fuel links of IPCC authors, with experts declaring the body’s conflict of interest policy ‘not fit for purpose’

A la hausse constante des prix alimentaires s'ajoutent les effets de plus en plus dramatiques du changement climatique et un monde de plus en plus instable. Serons-nous réellement capables de nourrir une population qui devrait bientôt atteindre 10 milliards. Le professeur Tim Benton, l’un des plus grands experts mondiaux des systèmes alimentaires, estime que notre modèle économique de croissance infinie sur une planète aux ressources finies est voué à s’effondrer. Mais quand cela se produira-t-il ? Qu’est-ce que cela signifie concrètement ? Et enfin, entrons-nous réellement dans une ère de famine ?

Tim Benton, expert reconnu en sécurité alimentaire mondiale, afin de comprendre les causes de l'effondrement de nos systèmes alimentaires et les conditions nécessaires à la construction d'un système véritablement régénérateur. – Pourquoi le système alimentaire actuel est fondamentalement insoutenable – Que signifie concrètement le concept de « limites planétaires » – Le mythe de la croissance verte – Comment nos régimes alimentaires et nos systèmes agricoles doivent évoluer – Les 3 mécanismes qui nous empêchent d'avancer

One of the biggest upheavals in a millennium is on its way, strengthened by the climate crisis. We need leaders who make things better not worse

Climate models simulate a wide range of 21st century warming for a given forcing scenario. Constraining this uncertainty is a central challenge in climate science because of its implications for climate policy and adaptation. The Transient Climate Response (TCR) is a key idealized metric used to quantify future warming in response to an exponentially increasing CO2 concentration. Climate models span a range of 1.3–3 K for TCR. In attempts to constrain this range, emergent constraints on TCR based on historical temperature trends consistently pointed towards TCR values at the lower end of the range of models. However, recent evidence from trends in the short-wave and long-wave components of Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) at the top-of-atmosphere suggests that models with higher TCR lie closer to the observed EEI trends. Here, we reconcile this discrepancy and provide a revised range for TCR of 1.9–2.6 K. Using a statistical variability-filtering approach, we show that previous temperature-based constraints we

In 1999, two colonels in China’s People’s Liberation Army wrote a strategy piece called Unrestricted Warfare. It gives guidance on how China can defeat the United States and the West in general. The 228 pages are a surprisingly easy and entertaining read. They’re also illuminating.

The concepts of Green Growth and Degrowth represent two major narratives in the public and academic debate on socio-ecological transformation. . . Using a comparative analysis of the two research fields, we confirm several findings from previous reviews, including that Green Growth research is highly policy oriented, focuses on practical implementation and builds on empirical research methods, while Degrowth research is highly theory-driven, focuses on the analysis of complex human-nature interrelationships and builds on a sound theoretical and conceptual foundation. Our analysis further reveals that Green Growth and Degrowth are two rather isolated fields of research with little exchange and mutual reference on related topics. However, the topic of social change and transition represents an intersecting and promising future research area. . . .

Whether you’re looking for hands-on strategies, a deeper understanding of the big-picture frameworks underpinning those strategies, or thought-provoking reflections on the current state of the world and its likely future, this book has something for you.

Alarming warnings from industry insiders increase pressure for curbs on artificial superintelligence

What sounds like the overwrought penultimate episode in a sci-fi series about AI doom is now our reality

The term ‘Anthropocene’ was coined in recognition that human activities have ended the relatively stable environment of the Holocene epoch. However, its widespread adoption across the humanities, arts and sciences has led to diverse and sometimes incompatible definitions. In this Perspective, we argue for a stabilized definition of the Anthropocene epoch to help address contemporary environmental challenges, and explore various applications of the Anthropocene across disciplines. The Anthropocene epoch, with a proposed start point in 1952, underscores that human-driven global-scale environmental disruption differs from earlier human impacts of the Holocene, which did not cause such profound destabilization. This clear distinction enables quantitative and qualitative comparisons between the Holocene and Anthropocene epochs, as already utilized, for instance, within the planetary boundaries framework. As the Anthropocene Earth system transformation is systemic, political responses also need be systemic, rather

Chronic exposure to pesticide mixtures through diet is common, yet their combined metabolic effects and interactions with dietary factors remain unclear. We identified four pesticides prevalent in human exposure (imazalil, thiabendazole, boscalid, lambda-cyhalothrin) and assessed their combined impacts on hepatic metabolism and metabolic homeostasis using human liver cells and male mice fed standard chow or western diets. We found that the pesticide mixture induced metabolic perturbations in human hepatocytes. In addition, the pesticide mixture altered hepatic gene expression in chow-fed mice and exacerbated western diet-induced glucose intolerance, fasting hyperglycemia, and insulin resistance without affecting body weight or liver steatosis. These findings reveal that dietary context influences the metabolic consequences of pesticide mixtures, highlighting the need to consider nutritional status when evaluating environmental contaminant risks. Our results suggest that pesticide mixtures at reference doses m

Exclusive: Angela Eagle urges UK citizens to be ‘a bit more resilient’ as they plan for national emergencies.

Les systèmes d'intelligence artificielle sont entrainés sur les comportements humains qu'ils lisent et regardent/écoutent. Dès lors, le mensonge est une partie intégrante de leurs stratégies. Leur capacité (à mentir et à masquer leurs mensonges) risque de nous dépasser assez rapidement.

Lethal temperatures ​and wildfires have exposed a widening gulf between voters demanding ​action and politicians unwilling to confront the long-term choices global heating requires

What places on Earth are most resilient to global catastrophic risk (GCR)? We provide the first study of what locations are more resilient against the impacts of nuclear war, near-Earth objects, large-magnitude volcanic eruptions, large-scale cyberattacks, high altitude electromagnetic pulse, geomagnetic storms and pandemics. This shows there is no place on Earth which is resilient against all kinds of GCR. Australia shows resilience across the widest range of GCR scenarios in the literature we reviewed, but even for it, continued international cooperation and trade are essential. Across the different risks, common resilience factors that show up most are geographic isolation (e.g. islands), self-sufficiency (especially in food production), high governance quality (more democratic and lower inequality) and decentralization to mitigate single point catastrophic failures (e.g. impacting trade or food supply). Many of these factors stand in tension with each other and trade-offs are required to balance between d

Exclusive: Economic harm of CO2 pollution from Rosebank and Jackdaw forecast to far outweigh any boost to UK

Historically, the decarbonisation of aviation has lagged behind other modes of transport. However, the technology and policy base for change is finally taking off in Europe, and the region has a real chance to lead. But Europe needs to step on the accelerator, not the brake to maintain its global leadership for a clean transition for the sector.

Climate models simulate a wide range of 21st century warming for a given forcing scenario. Constraining this uncertainty is a central challenge in climate science because of its implications for climate policy and adaptation. The transient climate response (TCR) is a key idealized metric used to quantify future warming in response to an exponentially increasing CO2 concentration. Climate models span a range of 1.3–3 K for TCR. In attempts to constrain this range, emergent constraints on TCR based on historical temperature trends consistently pointed toward TCR values at the lower end of the range of models. However, recent evidence from trends in the short-wave and long-wave components of Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) at the top-of-atmosphere suggests that models with higher TCR lie closer to the observed EEI trends. Here, we reconcile this discrepancy and provide a revised range for TCR of 1.9–2.6 K. Using a statistical variability-filtering approach, we show that previous temperature-based constraints wer

A new study finds two persistent mental shortcuts—not ignorance—are why people keep overrating recycling and underrating flying less.

Exclusive: Federal government court filings claim internal company documents included warnings about products being toxic

Americans aged 18-25 are anxious, powerless, and afraid. According to a recent study of American youth, 62.9% agree: "humanity is doomed". The same survey found that almost all agreed that the climate was changing. Remarkably, the findings were fairly consistent across party lines.

Food security (FS) remains a pressing issue at the global scale. Current literature about FS points to a plethora of causes of food insecurity, among which climate change and the loss of biodiversity are critical to all facets of food security. Building on this notion, we advocate for a comprehensive understanding of drivers of food security, thus contributing by examining climate change and biodiversity as drivers of food security. The interest in this subject stems not only from the scientific community, but also from practitioners and policymakers. However, holistic encapsulation of the relevant literature addressing this subject is currently lacking. This review systematically analyses and categorises the drivers of FS induced by climate change and biodiversity. Following the Systematic Literature Review approach, 342 peer-reviewed studies were selected and synthesised. Our findings identified 11 categories of climate change drivers and 9 categories of biodiversity drivers of FS. These drivers were found

Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security: a national security assessment

This summer’s extreme weather and wars in Iran and Ukraine have made our need for food stockpiles more pressing than ever

Europe is full of buried explosives left over from 20th century wars, and wildfires are now reaching them more regularly.

If you’re always above average, it’s probably time to redefine what’s normal. The new normal for Earth’s climate is systematically rising temperatures.

Methane emissions from Siberia have more than doubled over the past decade, according to new research co-led by scientists at the University of Edinburgh’s National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO)

Exclusive: As wildfires rage, Frank Elderson says more work needed to assess risk from collapse of ecosystem services

Herders and experts tell the BBC how Africa's camels are suffering because of extreme heat.

Rising temperatures are set to drive up emissions from wildfires, fermenting wetlands, and melting permafrost, but these feedback loops are poorly captured in climate models. Scientists are racing to make sense of these emissions to gauge how much warming may lie ahead.

Some have called for Nuremberg-style trials against big oil. But there are laws already on the books to describe companies’ conduct

Emerging climate extremes should draw public attention to human-caused climate change. We expect unusual sea surface temperature (SST) and global warming the rest of this year to make 2026 hotter than 2024, despite 2024 being a peak El Nino year, while 2026 is only the lead-in year of an emerging El Nino. Beware the “surprise” record high being blamed on an extreme El Nino on top of global warming otherwise consistent with IPCC estimates. Instead, record warmth provides additional evidence of high climate sensitivity and increased net climate forcing in the past decade. These two factors are driving an unusual increase in global SSTs with major consequences. If you bear with our discussion to the end, you will find some possible good news. Figures in this post are continually updated on our website.[2] We are now on Substack[3].

Exclusive: Global investigation reveals 235 lawsuits have been brought against governments in five countries since 2010

Increasing instability of the ocean, ice and atmosphere threatens farming, finance and society. We all need to wake up to that fact.

Exclusive: High-level documents show how Copa Cogeca worked to weaken legislation to protect climate and wildlife

Projections of near-term climate change are a potential research tool. However, for that tool to be most useful, the physical basis for a prediction must be made clear. The basis for our projection of record 2026 global temperature is high climate sensitivity, with its implication that aerosol cooling was still increasing during the period 1970-2005. One consequence, global sea surface warming, already has important effects. Causes of climate change must be understood for policy purposes. Figures in this post and our recent papers are continually updated on our website.[1] We are also now on Substack[2].

And why when we do see it, we fail to act.

Weather cycle threatens harvests worldwide, adding to inflation already fuelled by the Iran war

Members of parliament have demanded full publication of an explosive report by the UK’s spy leaders that found the collapse of ecosystems overseas would have catastrophic consequences for the UK’s national security, warning that the UK has “no future” if the findings are not urgently acted on.

Daily Sea Surface Temperature

A vast system of Atlantic currents that delivers warmth to northern Europe is at risk of collapse, according to a growing body of research. The latest study to warn of its demise finds there is at least a 10 percent chance that a collapse may already be “locked in.”

The fluoropolymer industry is at it again. The industry’s most notable products are non-stick industrial coatings such as Teflon, made using forever chemicals (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances: PFAS). But as the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) starts to wind up its second public consultation on the proposed EU PFAS ban, the fluoropolymer industry is once again mobilising its customers to criticise alternatives to their products.

New research shows major lenders are accelerating their investment in Big Oil as the industry turns toward plastics and petrochemicals.

Closed-door talks over the World Bank’s climate agenda have stalled, as the US pushes to scrap green targets and expand support for fossil fuels

European scientists warn of consequences for weather patterns, the global climate and marine life

For most of the modern era, capitalism justified itself through growth. Industrial societies converted vast amounts of fossil energy into production, wealth, and rising living standards. Roads, bridges, power grids, schools, and public institutions expanded alongside the economy. Inequality and exploitation remained deeply embedded in the system, but they were partly obscured by a broader story of material progress.

Drug-resistant bacteria are no longer confined to hospital settings but are spreading into communities in every country

The climate and nature crisis threatens all aspects of British life, from national security to the food supply. Despite the scale of the risks now facing the UK, there has been no comprehensive national emergency briefing delivered to the public by the Government.

Climate scientists warn of unprecedented Antarctic heatwave, with temperatures 20C above normal. Loss of sea ice threatens marine life and penguins.

Study also finds high humidity means people in hundreds of cities are enduring their worst ever heat stress

A new report has uncovered the many risks of participating in climate and environmental protests across the world – and how more countries are criminalising and repressing this activity in a bid to keep it in check.

Some Western nations are using old legislation or enacting harsh new laws to restrict the right to peaceful protest and impose disproportionate penalties, a report warns. Governments in democratic countries in Europe and the global north are using overly punitive measures to crack down on environmental activists, according to a new report.

Environmental defenders across Europe, South Caucasus and Central Asia are increasingly facing legal pressure, intimidation and attempts to restrict their work. Non-governmental organisations warn about a steady rise in SLAPP lawsuits (1), defamation cases, claims for compensation for alleged damages and other tactics intended to discourage public scrutiny of industrial, mining and development projects with a negative impact on environment. Civic oversight is becoming more difficult, especially for those who challenge powerful economic or political interests.

Yet, as the climate crisis worsens, the civic space for climate protests is shrinking. Instead of focusing on meeting their commitments to reduce climate change, governments are threatening environmental protectors—from Indigenous communities defending their ancestral lands to young activists protesting the expansion of fossil fuels—with intimidation, legal harassment, and at times deadly violence. New forms of attacks are emerging, like the use of counterterrorism laws against climate activists, who are vilified in public and political discourse. And governments have been ratcheting-up their repression of such protests.

The criminalization and repression of climate and environmental activists have intensified globally in the past few years.1 These are forms of backlash against often impactful social movements. The repressive wave has sparked major concerns in many quarters, with the UN secretary general, the UN special rapporteur on environmental defenders, and many nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), politicians, and social movements speaking out against it.2 In this article I will draw on findings from a University of Bristol project that I led on this topic.3 Driven by a combination of state and corporate actors, the repression of climate and environmental protest is a truly worldwide phenomenon that takes place across the Global North and South.

Scientists have linked extreme weather events like excessive heat, flooding and wildfires to big emitter states’ failure to take urgent climate action despite the dangers posed to the rights of those living there and around the world. Governments worldwide are breaking electoral promises, defying court decisions over their lack of climate action, and ignoring warnings that have been voiced by international bodies for years.

In a landmark paper, the UN Special Rapporteur on Environmental Defenders warns that the continued State efforts to repress and criminalise environmental protests, including direct action and civil disobedience, are a threat to fundamental freedoms and democracy itself.

A Climate Rights International report exposes the increasingly heavy-handed treatment of climate activists in Australia, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, the UK and the US. It found the crackdown in these countries – including lengthy prison sentences, preventive detention and harassment – was a violation of governments’ legal responsibility to protect basic rights to freedom of expression, assembly, and association. It also highlights how these same governments frequently criticise regimes in developing countries for not respecting the right to protest peacefully.

Do we really want to play dice with our planet?

Nearly every indicator of climate change is flashing red. But we still hold the tools available to bring the planet back into balance

Scientists know how to alter our atmosphere to try and fix climate change, but doing so could bring other potential unintended impacts

Ten million people left without power in latest of outages that sparked violent protest last weekend

Four months into US oil blockade, Cubans see island drained as state electric company fights to provide even a few hours of power a day Ruaridh Nicoll in Havana - The doctor called from the darkness, a shadowy figure sitting on the stoop of his apartment building. “I want to tell you we’ve been four days without light,” he said. “And without electricity, water is also a problem. And there are mosquitoes everywhere.”

Cet article rapporte la difficulté du secteur manufacturier en Grande Bretagne à faire face à l’augmentation du cout de l'énergie. Dans l'ombre de cet article apparait ce qui sera la réalité à un moment donné, sans pétrole bon marché, l'industrie manufacturière ne peut pas fonctionner dans les conditions actuelles. Le contrat social sera rompu et il faudra réinventer une manière de vivre ensemble. La situation en Grande Bretagne est peut-être exacerbée par le Brexit et la situation insulaire mais elle est l'avant-poste de ce qui attend une bonne part du monde industrialisé, à moins de relancer le charbon avec toutes les conséquences sur le dérèglement climatique et la santé des personnes que nous connaissons.

Photosynthesis does not always result in wood growth, a key factor in carbon dioxide sequestration

The system of ocean current that moves heat in the Atlantic Ocean plays a key role in regulating climate. Today’s monitoring of it may be discontinued...

Projections of near-term climate change are a potential research tool. However, for that tool to be most useful, the physical basis for a prediction must be made clear. The basis for our projection of record 2026 global temperature is high climate sensitivity, with its implication that aerosol cooling was still increasing during the period 1970-2005. One consequence, global sea surface warming, already has important effects. Causes of climate change must be understood for policy purposes. Figures in this post and our recent papers are continually updated on our website.[1] We are also now on Substack[2].

The Global Justice Project attempts to set out a new vision for global progress in the 21st century: grounding human development and equality in planetary habitability. It explores the conditions under which the world could move toward this horizon and traces an economically and ecologically consistent transition path from 2026 to 2100.

The Global Justice Project is a collective research initiative developed by the World Inequality Lab. Combining comparative historical data series from the World Inequality Database with global input-output tables, environmental accounts, labour force surveys and other sources, the project explores what a just distribution of socio-economic and environmental resources could look like at the global level from 2025 to 2100 – both between and within countries – in a way that is compatible with planetary boundaries. The project partly builds on the analysis and proposals set out in Thomas Piketty’s Brief History of Equality, extending them into a broader and more comprehensive global framework. The Global Justice Project is now available to explore on a dedicated website, that includes an interactive tool to explore the distributional pathways and climate scenarios behind the report.

The Global Justice Report offers a hopeful bargain: tax extreme wealth and replace consumer excess with social and economic security for all

While the term “Anthropocene” is well established across scientific disciplines and social spheres, interpretations are diverse. Taking account of the 2024 rejection by a geological commission to accept the Anthropocene as a geological epoch and the related scientific debate, here we offer a future-oriented perspective from the viewpoint of Earth system science. We describe different pathways in the Anthropocene up to the year 3,000, systematically characterizing them according to impacts and causes. We discuss the enormous global consequences of anthropogenic pressures on the Earth system and quantify the corresponding long-term commitment to change. Regarding the causes, we conservatively explore best-case and middle-of-the road emission scenarios, in combination with climate sensitivities drawn from within the IPCC likely range. We also discuss implications for Earth system resilience that could result in what we call worst case scenarios for Anthropocene outcomes. We conclude that, beyond the slow pace of

Our roadmap has been shaped by experts across the world, from UN agencies to grassroots movements. We call on political leaders at all levels to use it

- Artificial intelligence could pose a "more urgent" threat to humanity than climate change, AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton told Reuters in an interview on Friday. Geoffrey Hinton, widely known as one of the "godfathers of AI", recently announced he had quit Alphabet, opens new tab after a decade at the firm, saying he wanted to speak out on the risks of the technology without it affecting his former employer.

The British-Canadian computer scientist often touted as a “godfather” of artificial intelligence has shortened the odds of AI wiping out humanity over the next three decades, warning the pace of change in the technology is “much faster” than expected. Prof Geoffrey Hinton, who this year was awarded the Nobel prize in physics for his work in AI, said there was a “10% to 20%” chance that AI would lead to human extinction within the next three decades.

Terms such as El Nino, La Nina and ENSO are thrown around a lot in relation to Australian weather, but what do they actually mean for us and the rest of the world?

The Trump administration is dismantling a $368 million deep-ocean observation system that was put in place a decade ago to monitor coastal environments, marine ecosystems and powerful currents that affect the global climate.

Global effort needed to limit effects of pollution, industrial fishing and climate crisis, World Ocean Assessment says

In the icy waters of the Southern Ocean, whales and other marine mammals rely on krill to survive. But as the market for human dietary supplements and animal feeds booms, and climate change reduces krill populations, scientists worry there may not be enough to go around.

Brutal El Nino, drought, war threatens food supply

You may have heard the rumors of a "monster El Niño." It's not the first time we've heard forecasts like this in Australia, but this time, they aren't coming out of nowhere. Early signs in the Pacific have been building for months and forecasts now point to a high likelihood of a moderate to strong El Niño developing in 2026.

Halting and reversing the global decline in biodiversity is now urgent to avoid destabilizing Earth's vital systems that support human well-being. That's the stark message of a new paper published today in Frontiers in Science. The authors warn that without protecting remaining intact biomes and ecosystems, climate and development goals will be impossible to achieve.

La construction d'un datacenter en Utah a entrainé une opposition farouche des habitants. La course à l'IA repose la question de l'équilibre entre technologie et ressources limitées en eau, en terres arables et terres rares, en électricité. De nombreux datacenter vont utiliser des énergies fossiles.

Weather models project a potentially strong El Niño this year, which could spell disaster for heatwave-hit India, drench China and hurt agriculture across south-east Asia

Exxon warns oil inventories will hit dangerously low levels in weeks, forcing prices to shoot higher. […]

The IMD AI Safety Clock is a tool designed to evaluate the risks of Uncontrolled Artificial General Intelligence (UAGI) – autonomous AI systems that operate without human oversight and could potentially cause significant harm. Our mission is to evaluate and communicate these risks to the public, policymakers, and business leaders, helping ensure the safe development and use of AI technologies.

Climate and geopolitical shocks – from El Niño, global heating or wars – hit a food system which already magnifies environmental and social vulnerabilities.

How Cynicism Became the New Psychological Performance

A five-year study found that warming oceans are causing Maine’s underwater kelp forests to disappear and be replaced by turf algae.

Modi denied climate change for years. Now, as heat deaths mount, his government offers branding instead of protection.

Scientists have uncovered alarming new evidence that a common insecticide may leave lasting marks on the developing brain before a child is even born. Researchers studying New York City children found that prenatal exposure to chlorpyrifos — a pesticide once widely used indoors and still used in agriculture — was linked to widespread brain abnormalities and weaker motor skills years later.

Climatologists say a particularly powerful weather pattern could amplify wildfire risk, heatwaves and flooding worldwide as global temperatures continue to rise

World is approaching point where no one can shut down a rogue AI, says director of body behind research

Patrick Pester is the trending news writer at Live Science. His work has appeared on other science websites, such as BBC Science Focus and Scientific American. Patrick retrained as a journalist after spending his early career working in zoos and wildlife conservation. He was awarded the Master's Excellence Scholarship to study at Cardiff University where he completed a master's degree in international journalism. He also has a second master's degree in biodiversity, evolution and conservation in action from Middlesex University London. When he isn't writing news, Patrick investigates the sale of human remains.

A fire fighter tackles a wildfire

Climate Action Tracker

Exclusive: Commission says alert would trigger coordinated international response that could help avoid millions dying. The climate crisis should be declared a global public health emergency by the World Health Organization, or millions more people will die unnecessarily, leading international experts have said. The independent pan-European commission on climate and health, which was convened by the WHO, concluded the climate crisis was such a worldwide threat to health that the WHO should declare it “a public health emergency of international concern” (Pheic).

Current energy projections often envision an expansion of nuclear capacities to decarbonize future energy systems. However, this contrasts with the historic and current status of the nuclear industry, marked by techno-economic challenges for both light-water and non-light-water reactor technologies. Regardless, projections of strong nuclear growth have persisted since the 1970s. This paper investigates the “nuclear energy paradox” which shows the recurring divergence between historical projections and actual developments. A data compilation of long-term energy projections from international organizations such as the IAEA and the IEA as well as energy system models like GCAM and MESSAGE, as used in the IPCC, reveal a recurring pattern of high-growth projections for nuclear power. Such projections often rest on techno-economic assumptions such as substantial cost reductions. We propose the concept of nuclear imaginaries to show that these assumptions are embedded into techno-economic visions of nuclear power de

Scenarios serve as a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation and adaptation actions). This paper describes the scenario framework for ScenarioMIP as part of CMIP7. The design process has involved various rounds of interaction with the research community and user groups at large. The proposal covers a set of scenarios exploring high levels of climate change (to explore high-end climate risks), medium levels of climate change (anchored to current policy), and low levels of climate change (aligned with current international agreements). These scenarios follow very different trajectories in terms of emissions, with some likely to experience peaks and subsequent declines in greenhouse gas concentrations in this century. An important innovation is that most scenarios are intended to be run, if possible, in emission-driven mode, providing a better representation of the Earth system uncert

Investment firms have put over $100 million into developing risky technologies that could cool the planet with unknown side effects.

Norway’s energy minister says country has a ‘responsibility’ to address shortfalls caused by wars in Ukraine and Middle East

We work to ensure that carbon pricing and other climate policies cut pollution and drive a just transition towards zero-carbon societies.

Rights-based, post-growth policies that make poverty eradication a deliberate outcome of restructured economies — not a trickle-down side effect of destructive growth.

The process of relocating people from New Orleans should start immediately, as the city has reached a “point of no return” that will see it surrounded by the ocean within decades due to the climate crisis, a stark new study has concluded. Ongoing sea-level rise and the rampant erosion of wetlands in southern Louisiana will swallow up the New Orleans area within a few generations, with the new paper estimating the city “may well be surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico before the end of this century”.

How much CO₂ does the world emit? Which countries emit the most?

Periodically posting commentary on climate science and policy.

We infer that 2026 is likely to be the warmest year in the period of instrumental data, based on a physics-based approach with identifiable assumptions. This approach may help us learn something in 2026 about the mechanisms of climate change. The figures in this post and our other current papers will be continually updated on our website,2 when they remain relevant. We are also now on Substack3.

The European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) earlier this year issued a forecast of a strong (“Super”) El Nino to begin later this year and peak in early 2027, as we have discussed in two earlier posts.3,4 El Ninos are important because of the large effects that they have on global weather, even though those effects are not always consistent from one El Nino to another. El Ninos have even greater effect in combination with ongoing global warming, e.g., Radfar et al.5 find that the combination of an El Nino with increasingly prevalent marine heat waves results in tropical cyclones consistently producing higher maximum wind speeds, storm surges, and precipitation rates, and Liu et al.6 describe evidence of El Ninos strengthened control over global climate anomalies in a warmer world

Dr. Hansen periodically posts commentary on his recent papers and presentations and on other topics of interest to an e-mail list. To receive announcements of new postings, please click here.

There is reason to expect that global temperatures will continue to increase over the remainder of the year, as a strong El Niño event is expected

The unspoken truth about humanity's frightening future.

A Letter to the Newly Awake. I know exactly where you are sitting right now. You are staring at a chart of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, watching a red line spike into uncharted, terrifying territory. Yet another horrible data point proving what you already know. You feel a familiar, hollow drop in your stomach as you register the biophysical reality: the planet’s systems are unraveling.

We must confront two stark realities about the end of our era. First, the collapse of our industrial civilization is already underway, manifesting as a slow, agonizing process of structural decay, economic exhaustion, and ecological overshoot. Second, this descent is terminal. We have permanently exhausted the physical prerequisites for any future technological reboot.

Beneath the surface of the Pacific, a massive pool of heat is preparing to reshape global weather patterns. Time is running out to prepare for a climate shock of unprecedented scale. As 2026 unfolds, the Pacific Ocean is priming a catastrophic El Niño that threatens to cripple global food systems, trigger widespread economic instability, and shatter planetary temperature records.

Sixty-five million people will die from pollution caused by nuclear energy and weapons programs built before 1989, according to a report published earlier this year by a European scientific committee. The research, from the European Committee on Radiation Risk (ECRR), raises doubts about previous estimates of the risk posed to humans from exposure to radiation from nuclear power and weapons. The study by the ECRR, based on a risk-assessment model developed over the past five years, challenges previous assumptions about the safety of even minimum exposure to low-level radiation.

According to the Associated Press, the Trump administration last week proposed a set of rollbacks that would decimate the country’s waterways. Legally, Trump can’t just undo the Biden-era rules on a whim. Instead, his EPA has started work on a convoluted workaround, which includes state-level enforcement delays and revisions to the original regulations.

Environment News: UNITED NATIONS: Vanuatu will renew its climate justice fight at the United Nations General Assembly with a draft resolution that was watered down afte.

Even if global warming does not exceed two degrees, it could lead to more serious consequences than expected. This is the conclusion of a new study published in Nature.

Wildfires used to die down and even stop at night with cooler temperatures and increased humidity. But a study released Friday says climate change is making burning weather more around the clock in North America because night is becoming warmer and drier. Canadian fire scientists say potential burning hours for fires have increased 36% in the last 50 years. California now has about 550 more fire-friendly hours a year than it did in the 1970s. North American summer nights are warming faster than days, evening relief is evaporating for forests and that means the area of land burned is soaring.

Climate models show considerable discrepancies in their future projections around the Atlantic, mainly due to uncertainties in the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Climate models suggest a reduction in AMOC strength of 32 ± 37% by 2100 (90% probability, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 scenario, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6). To refine this estimate and reduce its uncertainty, we use four different observational constraint methods. The best one, which provides the lowest leave-one-out error, integrates a large set of observable variables using ridge-regularized linear regression—a method unusual in climate science. It gives an estimate of the AMOC slowdown of 51 ± 8% (90% probability), i.e., a weakening ∼ 60% stronger than suggested by the multimodel mean. This refinement mainly results from correcting a bias in South Atlantic surface salinity, consistent with recent studies emphasizing its role in the proximity to an AMOC tipping point. This more substantial

The critical Atlantic current system appears significantly more likely to collapse than previously thought after new research found that climate models predicting the biggest slowdown are the most realistic. Scientists called the new finding “very concerning” as a collapse would have catastrophic consequences for Europe, Africa and the Americas.

À Kolwezi, dans le sud-est de la RDC, la découverte de minerais radioactifs sur le remblai T17, exploité artisanalement, a déclenché une urgence radiologique.

A team including scientists, Indigenous people and conservationists point to the ecosystem connecting Yellowstone and the Yukon as an example of a region where humans and nature are flourishing together.

In a Swiss forest lab, scientists tracked how beech and oak leaves cool themselves and pinpointed the moment heat and drought push them past their limits.

The Earth is already operating beyond its capacity to sustainably support the global population, according to new research highlighting growing strain on food systems, climate stability, and human well-being. Despite this, researchers say that slowing population growth and increasing global awareness could still help reduce long-term risks.

Thawing permafrost may release greenhouse gases much faster than previously expected, potentially accelerating climate change even further. Experiments conducted by researchers at the University of Leeds, and published in the AGU journal Earth’s Future, show that when permafrost thaws, it becomes 25 to 100 times more permeable. This change allows significantly greater amounts of climate-forcing gases to escape into the atmosphere.

Analysis of six extreme heatwaves found when temperature and humidity were accounted for, all were potentially deadly for older people

Around 153 BCE, Cato the Elder, one of Rome’s most prominent senators, began ending every single one of his speeches with the same words: “Carthago delenda est”, or “Carthage must be destroyed”.

Millions of Pages of Previously Classified Documents on Industrial Poisons (and Counting)

Climate regime shifts (CRSs), characterized by abrupt and persistent transitions between alternative stable states in the climate system, pose serious threats to ecosystems and human well-being. Understanding the potential drivers of CRSs is crucial, particularly in a warming world where CRSs are becoming more frequent.

The world has become well versed in the importance of the strait of Hormuz to the world’s energy flows, but attention is increasingly turning to its vital role in another market – the fertiliser on which harvests depend. A third of the global trade in raw materials for fertiliser passes through the maritime choke point, which is also the route for 20% of shipments of natural gas, which is required to make it.

Researchers in Japan have developed a new material that allows solar cells to generate an amount of energy from sunlight that was previously thought impossible. The discovery, made by a team at Kyushu University, involves a special “spin-flip” emitter that can harvest energy from the Sun that is typically lost as heat. The breakthrough overcomes the long-standing limit of conventional solar cells to achieve an energy conversion efficiency of 130 per cent – opening up new possibilities for ultra-efficient solar panels.

Together with the Center for International Environmental Law, we expose the scientific deception by chemicals industry which is delaying or derailing regulation to protect health and the environment.

Oil prices could jump to $200 per barrel and even higher if the Strait of Hormuz remains near-closed as it is at the moment, Fereidun Fesharaki, Chairman Emeritus of energy consultancy FGE NexantECA, told Bloomberg on Tuesday. Although the oil market is moving on sentiment and U.S. President Donald Trump’s social media posts about the war, the fact is that “every week, 100 million barrels of oil is not going through, and every month, 400 million barrels are not going through,” Fesharaki told Bloomberg Television.

We can’t know how long the war in the Middle East will last. Nor can we know who will “win” it, and in which terms. What we know is that the destruction already wreaked on things and people is immense, and it keeps escalating. The longer the war, the bleaker their perspectives in a region already plagued by all sorts of problems, including drought, soil degradation, ecosystem damage, scarce agricultural resources, declining fertility rates, and more.

When James Prescott Joule lent his name to a unit of energy, he could not have foreseen today’s alarming calculations

Thousands of rallies are expected across the U.S. on Saturday as part of the latest “No Kings” protest against the policies of President Donald Trump and his administration. Organizers said more than 3,200 events are planned in all 50 states for what they hope could be the largest single-day nonviolent protest in U.S. history. The two previous No Kings events attracted millions of participants.

Anti-authoritarian rallies, taking place in all 50 states plus 16 countries, are expected to be biggest in US history

Climate change is causing measurable harm globally1,2. Political and legal efforts seek to link these damages with specific emissions, including in discussions of loss and damage (L&D)3,4; however, no quantitative definition of L&D exists5,6, nor is there a framework to link past and future emissions from specific sources to monetized, location-specific damages. Here we develop such a framework, which is integrated with recent efforts to estimate the social cost of carbon7. Using empirical estimates of the non-linear relationship between temperature and aggregate economic output, we show that future damages from past emissions—one component of L&D—are at least an order of magnitude larger than historical damages from the same emissions. For instance, one tonne of CO2 emitted in 1990 caused US$180 in discounted global damages by 2020 ($40–530) and will cause an additional $1,840 through 2100 ($500–5,700). Thus, settling debts for past damages will not settle debts for past emissions. In other illustrative esti

Oil has empowered capitalism, and some of the world’s most exploitative regimes. Move away from it and we can solve some of the key issues we face

Wael Sawan warns of pressure on diesel and petrol if strait of Hormuz does not reopen to oil and gas shipping

The fragility of the global food system fills me with dread – and the war with Iran has exposed just how close to collapse it is

Le philosophe de l'environnement Rupert Read dit à Ella Whelan la panéliste Moral Maze pourquoi nous ne pourrons peut-être plus profiter du même niveau de vie pour le bien de la planète et des générations futures.

Models are converging on prediction of an El Nino beginning this year, peaking in early 2027. After overlooking the possibility of an El Nino this year, some reporting is jumping on a “Super El Nino” bandwagon. El Nino strength and frequency are important, especially the issue of whether these are modified by global warming. However, the more important knowledge that needs to be extracted from near-term global warming concerns interpretation of ongoing, extraordinary, acceleration of ocean surface warming. Impacts of this ocean warming include a factor of two greater warming over land, increased extreme precipitation, and poleward movement of subtropical conditions.

​"Extreme heatwaves like the one impacting the Western US this month are one of the catastrophic disasters these companies predicted their conduct would bring about," said Public Citizen.

Trump has launched an unprecedented assault on the environment. Where’s the pushback?

As climate change accelerates, its effects are being felt in every corner of the world. A comprehensive global index developed by researchers at the University of Notre Dame has assessed the climate vulnerability and adaptive readiness of nearly 200 countries, revealing stark and troubling disparities between the world’s wealthiest and most impoverished nations.

Most research on “forever chemicals” focuses on how best to remove them from the environment. But solutions to tricky problems often emerge from the most unexpected of places—as demonstrated by a new study that instead redirects the pollutants into becoming tools for extracting precious lithium. In a recent Nature Water study, a team led by Rice University researchers describes a novel way to use spent perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, to recover lithium from high-salinity brine pools. The team tapped into the fluorine content inside PFAS leftovers, using it to attract lithium from briny water. Remarkably, the team was able to collect lithium fluoride at 99% purity and confirmed that the sample was pure enough to boost the stability and performance of lithium-ion batteries.

The Gulf Stream is part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The AMOC is a tipping element and may collapse under changing forcing. However, the role of the Gulf Stream in such a tipping event is unknown. Here, we investigate the link between the AMOC and Gulf Stream using a high-resolution (0. 1°) stand-alone ocean simulation, in which the AMOC collapses under a slowly-increasing freshwater forcing. AMOC weakening gradually shifts the Gulf Stream near Cape Hatteras northward, followed by an abrupt northward displacement of 219 km within 2 years. This rapid shift occurs a few decades before the simulated AMOC collapse. Satellite altimetry shows a significant (1993–2024, p < 0.05) northward Gulf Stream trend near Cape Hatteras, which is also confirmed in subsurface temperature observations (1965–2024, p < 0.01). These findings provide indirect evidence for present-day AMOC weakening and demonstrate that abrupt Gulf Stream shifts can serve as early warning indicator for AMOC tipping.

Industry’s spin and privileged access to the highest levels of the Commission, alongside the current EU hostility to new green rules and mania for deregulation, appear to have fatally undermined a key European Green Deal ambition.

Harmful chemicals in babies’ pacifiers. ‘Forever chemicals’ / PFAS in dental floss. Known carcinogens in lipstick lids. These are just three examples of toxic chemicals in everyday products that reveal how the EU’s flagship chemicals policy, REACH, is not delivering for citizens.

There is mounting experimental evidence that lifetime exposure to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels can negatively impact the normal physiology of organisms. Directly assessing this in humans is very difficult. We analysed serum bicarbonate (HCO3−), calcium (Ca) and phosphorus (P) from 1999 to 2020 as indirect proxies for atmospheric CO2 exposure. Over this period, average bicarbonate levels in this population show an increasing trend which parallels rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Both. If these trends continue, blood bicarbonate values could be at the limit of the accepted healthy range in half a century, and Ca and P will be at the limit of their healthy ranges by the end of this century. This has the potential to cause a range of adverse health effects.

The US was an oligarchy well before Trump’s first term. Recognizing this reality is essential to building a true democracy

 As climate protests are mounting across Italy, there is a corresponding escalation in repressive responses from public authorities. This trend is not unique to Italy but is rather widespread throughout Europe, as evidenced by frequent reports in national newspapers... What sets Italy apart from other European nations is the spectacular increase in the use of preventive measures by the public security administration.

Olivier De Schutter says new economic agenda needed to tackle crises of rising inequality and ecological collapse

Residents report terror of smoke-filled city, from potentially toxic rain, air and water to food scarcity and difficulty of escape

Critics say brash, bombastic Fox News host out of his depth to guide US military through murky new Middle East conflict

Anthropogenic activities are increasing the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. There is mounting experimental evidence that lifetime exposure to these increasing atmospheric CO2 levels can negatively impact the normal physiology of organisms. However, directly assessing this in humans is very difficult. We analysed serum bicarbonate (HCO3−), calcium (Ca) and phosphorus (P) levels from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1999 to 2020 as indirect proxies for atmospheric CO2 exposure. Over this period, average bicarbonate levels in this population show an increasing trend which parallels rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Both Ca and Phave decreased steadily over the same period. If these trends continue, blood bicarbonate values could be at the limit of the accepted healthy range in half a century, and Ca and P will be at the limit of their healthy ranges by the end of this century. Studies indicate that, after this time, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide

Seven Ukrainians arrested and money-laundering investigation launched in latest spat between Kyiv and Budapest

Researchers identify sharp rise to about 0.35C every decade, after excluding natural fluctuations such as El Niño

El Niño could fuel extreme weather and raise temperatures to record highs this year, but how sure can we be that it will return?

Fears US-Israeli onslaught could lead regime to push for bomb or embolden other groups to steal uranium stockpile

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been at the center of numerous toxicological and environmental concerns and regulatory scan- dals for two decades. Previous research has shown a long history of active obfuscation, misdirection (‘science bending’) and regulatory manipulation by the largest halogenation businesses, related to the depletion of the ozone layer and the toxicity of some fluorinated surfactants (PFOS and PFOA). We screened publications for potential evidence of other strategies of deception and obfuscated information regarding PFAS and fluoropolymers. A directed effort was identified to influence the scientific understanding of the environmental source and effects of ultrashort PFAS, especially trifluoroacetic acid (TFA). Critical issues in the current analytical approach to PFAS monitoring were identified, as well as evidence of a silently abandoned “total organofluoride” technique. The non-specific character of the production, incineration and degradation processes is discussed, inc

Depleting THAAD and Patriot interceptor inventories threaten US extended deterrence, Gulf energy security, and the regional power balance amid sustained Iranian ballistic missile and drone assaults.

In one of the most comprehensive empirical studies to date of AI strategic reasoning, Professor Kenneth Payne of King’s College London examined how large language models navigate simulated nuclear crises. Across 21 scenarios, the models displayed sophisticated escalation logic consistent with classical strategic theory – yet nuclear signalling occurred in 95% of games and no model ever chose outright concession. The findings challenge assumptions about AI restraint and offer new tools for defence analysis.

A recent UK national security assessment on biodiversity and ecosystem collapse made headlines, not for its dire warnings, but for its omissions. It's part of a larger trend of governments keeping climate security reports from the public.

What if the real danger wasn’t the crises ahead… but the established illusion that we can solve them without changing the system that produces said crises? In this uncompromising and deeply eye-opening talk, renowned systems thinker and strategist Arthur Keller challenges one of the most comforting ideas of our time: the belief that “solutions exist” to the great planetary predicaments of our time. Climate action, energy transition, technical innovation… are all crucial, yet they’re somewhat off topic if they remain integrated within a system that inexorably turns nature into waste. Arthur reframes the situation with brutal clarity. Humanity is not facing an ecological crisis: it is nature that’s facing a human crisis. The problematic is no collection of isolated problems to tackle one by one: it is rather the symptom of a civilization operating beyond planetary limits. Decarbonizing energy without transforming the underlying system, he argues, is like treating cancer with painkillers. The disease keeps sprea

The new joint policy brief offers a deep dive into the ways in which the social and solidarity economy can advance the objectives of the Roadmap by supporting the eradication of poverty beyond growth.

Even as weather extremes worsen, the voices calling for the rolling back of environmental rules have grown louder and more influential

Science-based policies could successfully limit human-caused climate change, but when political parties are allowed to accept money from special interests, policies are distorted to the point of being ineffective. This is a solvable problem, but to clarify the situation and the needed actions, we need to first marshal the evidence. The draft Prologue of Sophie’s Planet is intended to help coherently organize the evidence. Here is Part III of V, with the final two paragraphs of Part II.

Extinction Rebellion says some members have been visited by agents claiming to be FBI amid Trump’s threats toward liberal groups

As reported by the Guardian, scientists just published a warning that Earth is approaching a point of no return. A new study in the journal One Earth shows multiple climate systems — the Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarctic ice sheet, boreal permafrost, the Amazon rainforest — are all much closer to collapse than previously thought. “Research shows that several Earth system components may be closer to destabilising than once believed,” the researchers urged. “While the exact risk is uncertain, it is clear that current climate commitments are insufficient.”

The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but we suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing, not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.

Welcome to the Global Climate Highlights 2025 report, compiled by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The Global Climate Highlights 2025 report provides authoritative climate data and concise insight on a global scale about 2025's climate conditions, covering surface and sea surface temperature, heat stress, sea ice extent in the Arctic and Antarctic, among others.

US President Donald Trump has announced the reversal of the so-called endangerment finding, a key Obama-era scientific ruling that underpins much of US environmental legislation. As a result of this, experts are predicting various environmental and economic impacts, though the decision by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to be challenged in the courts from environmental groups.

As global soy giants walk away from a landmark pact, land grabbers move in to clear the forest for new crops.

A critical step on the path towards climate neutrality, the European Union’s 2040 target calls for a 90-per-cent reduction in emissions. Yet as far-reaching as this goal may seem, its provisions constitute a weakening of Europe’s climate ambitions under the Green Deal. By allowing costly and ineffective CO2 removal and storage technologies as a way of lowering emissions, the target risks deterring direct emission cuts and outsourcing pollution.

When a series of power outages hit Europe last year, the finger of blame was quickly – and falsely – pointed to an unlikely source: renewables. Blackouts are being used as a political tool to oppose the energy transition. But they can also become an opportunity for open discussions about energy infrastructure – a topic too often reserved only for technical audiences.

With warming set to pass the critical 1.5-degree limit, scientists are warning that the world is on course to trigger tipping points that would lead to cascading consequences — from the melting of ice sheets to the death of the Amazon rainforest — that could not be reversed.

China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole.

Neonicotinoid insecticides are a major driver of pollinator decline. Due to their persistence and mobility in soil, they can contaminate non-target vegetation through runoff or dust, reaching pollinator resources. However, predicting soil contamination is challenging, especially where pesticide use data is lacking. This study assessed the potential of using proxies such as cropping history and landscape structure to predict neonicotinoid content in soils. We analyzed seven neonicotinoids in 86 sites in agricultural landscapes of Belgium.

By the end of this century, parts of Africa could face heatwaves for 250-300 days a year, which will make it difficult for people to survive.

Newborn babies are particularly vulnerable to hot conditions. They have a limited ability to control their body temperature.

Doyne Farmer says a super-simulator of the global economy would accelerate the transition to a green, clean world

Continued global heating could set irreversible course by triggering climate tipping points, but most people unaware

Today, we are close to the critical moment when conventional economic growth becomes impossible on a finite planet, constrained by two parallel factors: resource depletion and pollution. Tthe depletion of fossil fuels and other mineral commodities is placing heavy constraints on both industrial and agricultural production. We are not running out of anything yet, but the cost of extraction is increasing, just as the damage that extraction causes to the ecosystem. On the other side, pollution is appearing in more than one form. Chemical pollution is growing in terms of heavy metals, endocrine-disruptors, and other poisoning substances, while climate change can be seen as another form of pollution generated by the excess of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The world seems headed into another El Nino, just 3 years after the last one. Such quick return normally would imply, at most, an El Nino of moderate strength, but we suggest that even a moderately strong El Nino may yield record global temperature already in 2026 and still greater temperature in 2027. The extreme warming will be a result mainly of high climate sensitivity and a recent increase of the net global climate forcing, not the result of an exceptional El Nino, per se. We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury.

In Belem, Brazil’s leader, President Lula da Silva, opened the talks by denouncing obstructionists who “reject scientific evidence and attack institutions.” “They manipulate algorithms, sow hatred and spread fear,” he said, describing a surge in disinformation and propaganda aimed at blocking action to slow climate change. The summit, for the first time, put the issue on the agenda. A coalition of countries and international agencies issued a separate “Declaration on Information Integrity on Climate Change,” calling on governments to address climate disinformation, promote transparency and protect journalists, scientists and environmentalists.

Children’s developing lungs make them vulnerable to air pollution.

The world endured its costliest wildfire on record in 2025, its sixth-deadliest heat wave, and four floods or storms that caused at least 1,000 deaths.

Climate change is making it challenging to identify future host cities.

I know it’s almost impossible to turn your eyes away from the Trump show, but that’s the point. His antics, ever-grosser and more preposterous, are designed to keep him in our minds, to crowd out other issues. His insatiable craving for attention is a global-threat multiplier. You can’t help wondering whether there’s anything he wouldn’t do to dominate the headlines.

The Global Environment Outlook, Seventh Edition: A Future We Choose, the product of 287 multi-disciplinary scientists from 82 countries, is the most comprehensive scientific assessment of the global environment ever carried out.

The decline in the health of nature around the world poses a threat to the UK's security and prosperity, an intelligence committee has concluded in a long-awaited report. The document warns of "cascading risks" from the degradation of some of the planet's most important ecosystems, including conflict, migration and increased competition for resources.

States and financial bodies using modelling that ignores shocks from extreme weather and climate tipping points

New year, new acronym! The newly established Intergovernmental Science-Policy Panel on Chemicals, Waste and Pollution (ISP-CWP) will meet in its first Plenary session from February 2-6 in Geneva, Switzerland. The Panel is designed to provide scientific assessments on chemicals, waste, and pollution to inform policymakers at national, regional, and international levels.

The first session of the Plenary of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Panel on Chemicals, Waste and Pollution (ISP-CWP P1) will be hosted by the Government of Switzerland, from 2 to 6 February 2026 at the Geneva International Conference Centre (CICG). The session will be preceded by regional and stakeholder meetings on 1 February 2026, at the same venue. The tentative schedule for the first session is available here. Please note that this schedule is subject to change.

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Panel on Chemicals, Waste and Pollution (ISP-CWP) is a new, independent intergovernmental body established to strengthen the global science-policy interface.

Cutting-edge materials and thoughtful urban planning can help cities beat the negative heating effects of climate change.

The Senate is on the verge of taking up a bill with the Orwellian title “Fix Our Forests Act.” It is designed to do the opposite, as Dan Galpern and I describe in an op-ed published yesterday in the Boston Globe, which is copied below with permission of the Globe. The bill would result in swaths of the public’s national forests becoming “categorical exclusion” zones open to logging exempt from any environmental review. Thus, the bill would override the purposes for which national forests were set up, including “outdoor recreation, range…watershed, and wildlife and fish purposes.” This sin is rationalized under the pretense that the Act will reduce wildfire risk and improve forest health by “thinning” the forest. This is nonsense, as our op-ed discusses.

Climate change could lead to half a million more deaths from malaria in Africa over the next 25 years, according to new research.

l'observatoire US de la dérégulation environnementale

Exclusive: Ben Goldsmith will work on issues including fishing and green belt preservation to attract green Tories

Testimony from medics, morgue and graveyard staff reveals huge state effort to conceal systematic killing of protesters

Dario Amodei questions if human systems are ready to handle the ‘almost unimaginable power’ that is ‘potentially imminent’

Scientists expect 41% of the projected global population to face the extremes, with ‘no part of the world’ immune

As climate and geopolitics shocks bite, countries are rebuilding food buffers. The UK clings to neoliberal ideas while households pay the price

The world has entered an era of “global water bankruptcy” that is harming billions of people, a UN report has declared. The overuse and pollution of water must be tackled urgently, the report’s lead author said, because no one knew when the whole system could collapse, with implications for peace and social cohesion. All life depends on water but the report found many societies had long been using water faster than it could be replenished annually in rivers and soils, as well as over-exploiting or destroying long-term stores of water in aquifers and wetlands.

“Water crisis” has become the default label for almost any episode of water stress, from short-lived droughts to decades-long overuse of rivers and aquifers. Yet in many regions of the world, water problems no longer resemble a crisis in the conventional sense. They represent a post-crisis failure state in which human–water systems have exceeded their hydrological carrying capacities, and societies have spent beyond their sustainable hydrological budgets for so long that critical water assets are depleted, some ecosystem damages are irreversible on human time scales, and a return to “normal” is infeasible even with prohibitive economic, social, and environmental costs.

Flagship report calls for fundamental reset of global water agenda as irreversible damage pushes many basins beyond recovery

Satellite analysis warns that widespread land subsidence threatens 1.6 billion people by 2040, with 86% of the at-risk population concentrated in Asia

Like living beyond your financial means, using more water than nature can replenish can have catastrophic results.

Breathing in air pollution like ozone and PM2.5 harms nearly every major system in the human body

The authors of a new book argue that the ocean cannot be saved by legislation alone. Paul Watson is one of the authors, along with academic Sarah Levy. Watson was an early member of Greenpeace, and founded the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society, but is no longer linked to either organization. While he maintains he has never caused physical injury to anyone, he promotes "aggressive non-violent" direct action, and is currently wanted by the Japanese state.

Much of today's sustainability discourse emphasizes efficiency, clean technologies, and smart systems, but largely underestimates fundamental physical constraints relating to energy-matter interactions. These constraints stem from the fact that Earth is a materially closed yet energetically open system, driven by the sustained but low power-density flux of solar radiation. This Perspective reframes sustainability within these axiomatic limits, integrating relevant timescales and orders of magnitude. We argue that fossil-fueled industrial metabolism is inherently incompatible with long-term viability, while post-fossil systems are surface-, materials-, and power-intensive. Long-term sustainability must therefore be defined not only by how much energy or material is used, but also by how it is used: favoring organic, carbon-based chemistry with limited reliance on purified metals, operating at low power density, and maintaining low throughput rates. Achieving this requires radical technological shifts toward l

Report by joint intelligence committee delayed, with concerns expressed that it may not be published

Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security - A national security assessment

Ecosystem destruction will increase food shortages, disorder and mass migration, with effects already being felt

Melting glaciers, coastal areas wiped off the map and regular 40C heat in Europe. Climate experts warn the gloomy predictions of long term environmental change are no longer the future - they are already here. Last year was the third hottest on record, with the World Meteorological Organization this week warning that 2025 continued a run of “extraordinary” global temperatures. The EU has said the Paris climate agreement of 1.5C could be broken before 2030, a decade sooner than expected.

US demand to own Greenland leaves little scope for compromise, and forcing the issue would entail end of Nato Greenland, with a population of fewer than 57,000, might not seem to be the territory on which the future of the relationship between Europe and the US, the viability of Nato as the world’s most successful defence alliance, or even the fractured relations between the UK and Europe would be determined. But battlefields are sometimes the product of chance, rather than choice. It now feels as if Donald Trump’s threat to impose 10% tariffs on eight fellow Nato states for sending troops last week to support Greenland’s sovereignty may be one of those clarifying moments in which Europe had no option. Successive European leaders condemned Trump’s blackmail and intimidation on Sunday and they sounded as if they meant it.

Bronwen Maddox says Trump’s rejection of international law leaves UK and Europe facing huge dilemma

“Combustion is the problem – when you’re continuing to burn something, that’s not solving the problem,” says Prof Mark Jacobson. The Stanford University academic has a compelling pitch: the world can rapidly get 100% of its energy from renewable sources with, as the title of his new book says, “no miracles needed”. Wind, water and solar can provide plentiful and cheap power, he argues, ending the carbon emissions driving the climate crisis, slashing deadly air pollution and ensuring energy security. Carbon capture and storage, biofuels, new nuclear and other technologies are expensive wastes of time, he argues.

The carbon capture company Climeworks only captures a fraction of the CO2 it promises its machines can capture. The company is failing to carbon offset the emissions resulting from its operations – which have grown rapidly in recent years.

Progress of artificial general intelligence could stall, which may lead to a financial crash, says Yoshua Bengio, one of the ‘godfathers’ of modern AI

The Environmental Protection Agency is moving forward with approvals for pesticides containing “forever chemicals” as an active ingredient, dismissing concerns about health and environmental impacts raised by some scientists and activists. This month, the agency approved two new pesticides that meet the internationally recognized definition for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, also known as PFAS or fluorinated substances, and has announced plans for four additional approvals.

We are living in a time of polycrisis. If you feel trapped – you’re not alone. I hadn’t fully grasped how the idea of a better future sustained me – now I, like many others, find it difficult to be productive

The world's oceans absorbed a record amount of heat in 2025, an international team of scientists said Friday, further priming conditions for sea level rise, violent storms, and coral death.

A “pushing and triggering” mechanism has has driven the Arctic climate system to a new state, which will likely see consistently increased frequency and intensity of extreme events across the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere this century.

This year, ExxonKnews reported on Big Oil targeting its critics, pushing false solutions, and encouraging political allies to help the industry escape accountability.

Perception, pattern-seeking, and the role of neurodivergence in a failing civilisation

Effective identification and assessment of various energy transition risks are essential for ensuring energy security. This study conducts a systematic review of the literature on energy transition risk assessment, with three principal objectives: ① establishing a standardized risk taxonomy, ② analyzing the characteristics of current assessment methodologies, and ③ identifying the priority research directions. First, energy transition risks are structured into two categories: implementation risks and consequential risks. Subsequently, assessment methodologies are categorized into five methodological groups: the indicator approach, probabilistic risk assessment approach, econometric approach, simulation approach, and hybrid approach.

Data group forecasts deficit of 10mn tonnes by 2040, equivalent to nearly one-third of current global demand

87%. That’s how much the emissions of NVIDIA (worth 5 trillion dollars) increased in 2024, as an article from TruthDig is one of the only sources in the world to point out. This means it became the world’s most valuable company by answering soaring demand for AI… whilst doubling its carbon footprint. Not to mention water: Samsung’s next ‘mega-cluster’ of GPU fabs will consume half of Seoul’s water, says the same article.

A new international analysis published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences on 9 January finds that the Earth's ocean stored more heat in 2025 than in any year since modern measurements began. The finding is the result of a major international collaboration led by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, involving more than 50 scientists from 31 research institutions worldwide. The 2025 heat increase was 23 Zetta Joules (23,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Joules of energy), which is equivalent to ~37 years of global primary energy consumption at the 2023 level (~620 Exa Joules per year). The assessment combines data from major international data centers and independent research groups, including three observational products (Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences; Copernicus Marine; and NOAA/NCEI) and an ocean reanalysis (CIGAR-RT) from three continents: Asia, Europe, and America. These groups confirm that the 2025 ocean heat content (OHC) reached the h

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Legal action has brought important decisions, from the scrapping of fossil fuel plants to revised climate plans

It has the world's largest reserves, produces comparatively little, and has a type of oil that the US needs. […] Over the weekend, the United States bombed Venezuela, and captured its president Nicolás Maduro. There has been a lot of speculation about the legality, true motive and implications going forward. Oil has been a central part of the discussion. I wanted to get a quick overview of what the global picture looks like. So here are five(ish) simple charts that give some context on the history of oil in Venezuela, and why the United States — which is, by far, the world’s largest producer itself — would care so much.

Trump is no longer bending the rules – he is demolishing them, with consequences far beyond Caracas

Back in 2018, Yale economist William Nordhaus won the Nobel Prize for his work on his Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model. The idea was to set up a picture of the global economy, add on some estimates of the economic costs of warming with a “damage function,” plus estimates of what climate policy would cost, and all adjusted with a discount term to account for how people value current production more than future production (according to economists, at least). That way you can calculate an “optimal” climate policy in the form of a carbon tax that would precisely compensate for warming damages without burdening the economy too much.

By over-consuming our environment—and ecosystem stability—in the short-term, we are putting our planet’s long-term stability and capacity to provide for future generations in jeopardy.

Children born in 2020 will face “unprecedented exposure” to extreme weather events even if warming is limited to 1.5C.

Hidden in every tenth of a degree of extra warmth are hair-trigger switches built into Earth systems that are critical for all life.

The datasets used to diagnose the modern history of the planet’s climate — and to proclaim that the world is now very near to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming — typically begin with the year 1850. The new one goes all the way back to 1781. This extended time frame matters because greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increased 2.5 percent between 1750 and 1850, enough to have caused some warming that the data hasn’t accounted for.

The activist and author of Here Comes the Sun discusses rapid advances in solar and wind power and how the US ceded leadership in the sector to its main rival

Study author says tech companies are reaping benefits of artificial intelligence age but society is left to pay cost

From floods to droughts, erratic weather patterns are affecting food security, with crop yields projected to fall if changes are not made

Pour convaincre les électeurs de droite et du centre d’agir pour protéger la planète, élus et ONG essaient d’adapter le message.

Global temperature in 2025 declined 0.1°C from its El Nino-spurred maximum in 2024, making 2025 the second warmest year. The 2023-2025 mean is +1.5°C relative to 1880-1920. The 12-month running-mean temperature should decline for the next few months, reaching a minimum about +1.4°C. Later in 2026, we expect the 12-month running-mean temperature to begin to rise, as dynamical models show development of an El Nino. We project a global temperature record of +1.7°C in 2027, which will provide further confirmation of the recent global warming acceleration.

The doughnut-shaped framework of social and planetary boundaries (the ‘Doughnut’) provides a concise visual assessment of progress towards the goal of meeting the needs of all people within the means of the living planet1,2,3. Here we present a renewed Doughnut framework with a revised set of 35 indicators that monitor trends in social deprivation and ecological overshoot over the 2000–2022 period. Although global gross domestic product (GDP) has more than doubled, our median results show a modest achievement in reducing human deprivation that would have to accelerate fivefold to meet the needs of all people by 2030.

Glacial earthquakes are a special type of earthquake generated in cold, icy regions. First discovered in the northern hemisphere more than 20 years ago, these quakes occur when huge chunks of ice fall from glaciers into the sea. Until now, only a very few have been found in the Antarctic. In a new study soon to be published in Geophysical Research Letters, I present evidence for hundreds of these quakes in Antarctica between 2010 and 2023, mostly at the ocean end of the Thwaites Glacier – the so-called Doomsday Glacier that could send sea levels rising rapidly if it were to collapse.

Data from World Inequality Report also showed top 10% of income-earners earn more than the other 90%

World Inequality Report 2026

UN GEO report says ending this harm key to global transformation required ‘before collapse becomes inevitable’

The global collapse arrives piecemeal. Germany is going first.

The reality of coming to terms with the end of industrial civilisation

Doomscrolling, an addictive habit, can be destructive if not managed – the way an alcoholic, say, manages drinking herself to death. It must be done with care, with binges considered for the long haul. “Overindulging…may be detrimental to your mental health,” warns the doomscrolling subreddit r/Collapse. “Anxiety and depression are common reactions when studying collapse…If you are considering suicide….” (If you are considering suicide: this may end up one of the mantras of the era of modern civilizational crack-up.)

World Energy Outlook 2025 - Event listed by the International Energy Agency

The International Energy Agency works with countries around the world to shape energy policies for a secure and sustainable future.

The UK has announced much harsher rules for asylum seekers including the prospect of more deportations for those whose applications fail. The US is trebling the size of its deportation force. The EU is doubling its border budgets. And in the coming decades, hundreds of millions of people might be displaced by ecological changes.

Budgets are now climate policy. But mainstream media hasn’t caught up.

Around 56 million years ago, Earth suddenly got much hotter. Over about 5,000 years, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere drastically increased and global temperatures shot up by some 6°C.

Logging and mining are destroying swathes of the Congo rainforest, with the result that African forests went from being  a carbon sink to a carbon source in 2010 to 2017

Exclusive: UCL scientists find large swathes of southern Europe are drying up, with ‘far-reaching’ implications

I always say that models are not predictions; they are qualitative illustrations of what the future could be. But as the future gets closer to the present, models can start being seen as predictive tools. It is the weather/climate dichotomy, so aptly exploited to confuse matters by politically minded people in the discussion about climate. Right now, we are getting close to the point that we could forecast a collapse in the same way as we can forecast the trajectory of a tropical storm. So, you remember how “The Limits to Growth” generated a long term forecast in 1972. Here it is

Vaccination, despite being recognized as one of the most effective primary public health measures, is viewed as unsafe and unnecessary by an increasing number of individuals. Anxiety about vaccines and vaccination programs leading to vaccine hesitancy results from a complex mix of social and political influences, cultural and religious beliefs, the availability of and ability to interpret health and scientific information, and personal and population experiences of health systems and government policies. Vaccine hesitancy is becoming a serious threat to vaccination programs, and was identified as one of the World Health Organization’s top ten global health threats in 2019. The negative impact of anti-vaccination movements is frequently cited as one of the major reasons for rising vaccine hesitancy amongst the general public world-wide. This review discusses the various issues surrounding vaccine hesitancy and the anti-vaccine movement, starting with the definitions of vaccine hesitancy and the anti-vaccine mo

The growth rate of greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing increased rapidly in the last 15 years to about 0.5 W/m2 per decade, as shown by the “colorful chart” for GHG climate forcing that we have been publishing for 25 years (Fig. 1).[1] The chart is not in IPCC reports, perhaps because it reveals inconvenient facts. Although growth of GHG climate forcing declined rapidly after the 1987 Montreal Protocol, other opportunities to decrease climate forcing were missed. If policymakers do not appreciate the significance of present data on changing climate forcings, we scientists must share the blame.

Delegates made minimal headway on timetable for replacing oil and gas or on firm commitments to reducing carbon emissions

A deal is welcome after talks nearly collapsed but the final agreement contains small steps rather than leaps

Rain-fed agriculture, the backbone of rural livelihoods, are no longer predictable as droughts follows floods.

Existential Risk and Global Catastrophic - Risk: A Review

Collapse has historically benefited the 99%. […] That’s the amazing conclusion of Luke Kemp, author of Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse.  Luke is a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, and has spent the past five years studying the collapse of civilisations throughout history. He joins me to explain his research, detailing the difference between complex, collective civilisations and what he calls “Goliaths”, massive centralising forces by which a small group of individuals extract wealth from the rest through domination and the threat of violence. Today, he says, we live in a global Goliath.

Exclusive interview with ex-US vice-president at Cop30 also reveals his hope around much-maligned climate summit

Watchdog’s flagship report says rise in low-carbon electricity will make transition ‘inevitable’, despite Trump’s calls to carry on drilling

We are hurtling toward climate chaos. The planet's vital signs are flashing red. The consequences of human-driven alterations of the climate are no longer future threats but are here now. This unfolding emergency stems from failed foresight, political inaction, unsustainable economic systems, and misinformation. Almost every corner of the biosphere is reeling from intensifying heat, storms, floods, droughts, or fires. The window to prevent the worst outcomes is rapidly closing. In early 2025, the World Meteorological Organization reported that 2024 was the hottest year on record (WMO 2025a). This was likely hotter than the peak of the last interglacial, roughly 125,000 years ago (Gulev et al. 2021, Kaufman and McKay 2022). Rising levels of greenhouse gases remain the driving force behind this escalation. These recent developments emphasize the extreme insufficiency of global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mark the beginning of a grim new chapter for life on Earth.

There is rising concern that several parts of the Earth system may abruptly transition to alternative stable states in response to anthropogenic climate and land-use change. Key candidates of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the South American monsoon system and the Amazon rainforest. Owing to the complex dynamics and feedbacks between them via oceanic and atmospheric coupling, the levels of anthropogenic forcing at which transitions to alternative states can be expected remain uncertain. Here we demonstrate how such interactions can generate spurious signals and potentially mask genuine signs of destabilization. We further review and present observation-based evidence that the stability of these four tipping elements has declined in recent decades, suggesting that they have moved towards their critical thresholds, which may be crossed within the range of unmitigated anthropogenic warming. Our results call for better monitoring of these ti

James Hansen - Climate Reckoning in ATLAS25, Operaatio Arktis, Helsinki, Finland

Money talks – and his essay denouncing ‘near-term emissions goals’ at Cop30 mostly argues the case for letting the ultra-rich off the hook

Decision by international court of justice hailed as a gamechanger for climate justice and accountability

Gates recently called for a ‘strategic pivot’ in climate strategy. That appears to have hit a nerve.

“I suppose it is tempting, if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail.” Thus wrote the famous psychologist Abraham Maslow in 1966.

The 2024 ‘State of the climate’ report says climate scientists are more worried than ever and calls for ‘transformative science-based solutions across all aspects of society.’

On this day, October 27, 1990, the British Magazine the Economist had a cover story about “global warming” and international agreements.

22 of the planet’s 34 vital signs are at record levels, with many of them continuing to trend sharply in the wrong direction. This is the message of the sixth issue of the annual “State of the climate” report. The report was prepared by an international coalition with contribution from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and led by Oregon State University scientists. Published today in BioScience, it cites global data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in proposing “high-impact” strategies.

Exclusive: ‘Devastating consequences’ now inevitable but emissions cuts still vital, says António Guterres in sole interview before Cop30

Today, Nate is joined by Luke Kemp, a researcher whose work is focused on existential risks (or X-risks), which encompass threats of human extinction, societal collapse, and dystopian futures. How can we begin to understand the likelihood and gravity of these ruinous events, and what kinds of responses from people and governments could further undermine social cohesion and resilience? What roles do human biases, hierarchical power structures, and the development of technologies, like artificial intelligence and geoengineering, play in X-risks? How can we collaborate across industries to protect our modern systems through effective risk management strategies? And in what ways do our institutions need to become more inclusive to better democratize decision-making processes, leading to safer futures for humanity?

Dr Luke Kemp is a Research Associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge. He has a PhD in international relations from the ANU and previous experience as a senior economist at Vivid Economics. This episode explores catastrophic and extinction risk, why the topic is understudied, and how we can weigh out the catastrophic risks of climate change and solar geo-engineering.

For the first 300,000 years of human history, hunter-gathering Homo sapiens lived in fluid, egalitarian civilizations that thwarted any individual or group from ruling permanently. Then, around 12,000 years ago, that began to change.

Named one of the “world’s ten most influential intellectuals” by MIT, Douglas Rushkoff is an author and documentarian who studies human autonomy in a digital age. Rushkoff’s work explores how different technological environments change our relationship to narrative, money, power, and one another. He coined such concepts as “viral media,” “screenagers,” and “social currency,” and has been a leading voice for applying digital media toward social and economic justice. In the conversation we talk about the power of ideas, our disconnection from reality, going meta, ancestral fears, tech billionaires mindset and how they are preparing for the apocalypse. We also reflect on the urgent need to be more human and reconnect with what is essential.

 Luke is a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, and has spent the past five years studying the collapse of civilisations throughout history. He joins me to explain his research, detailing the difference between complex, collective civilisations and what he calls “Goliaths”, massive centralising forces by which a small group of individuals extract wealth from the rest through domination and the threat of violence. Today, he says, we live in a global Goliath. In this astounding conversation, Luke takes us from the Ancient times to the modern day, revealing the root causes of collapse and paralleling them what we’re living through today. He explains the egalitarian nature of our species, and shines new light on what a future could look like free from today’s global Goliath. He reminds us all that we tend to view collapse through the eyes of the 1%, those who have the most to lose, and gives startling accounts of how populations bounced back after thei

“We’re losing 120 calories per person, per day, for every degree of global warming.” That stark data point from a 2025 Nature study signals more than a threat to food security, it points to a growing risk to global financial security. Food system instability exposes markets to cascading shocks: inflation, trade disruption, insurance losses and sovereign credit stress. Yet these risks remain largely unaccounted for in core financial systems.

We already have plenty of evidence of what happens when things better left to governments — which in this case might decide to never flip the switch at all — are ceded to private industry.

Sentient Media reveals less than 4% of climate news stories mention animal agriculture as source of carbon emissions

Researchers have discovered dozens of new methane seeps littering the ocean floor in the Ross Sea coastal region of Antarctica, raising concerns of an unknown positive climate feedback loop that could accelerate global warming.

The uniquely vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 5 meters. But when that will happen — and how fast — is anything but settled.

Ahead of the United Nations climate talks in Brazil, advocacy groups are pushing for companies and governments to set meaningful emissions targets to lower emissions from livestock.

Antibiotic use in farming is now rampant. How meat is produced in China may mean the drugs you need here won’t work, says Prof Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh

In a selective history of the evolution of the degrowth movement, his chapter in the Routledge Handbook of Degrowth (2025) offers a collective and subjective reflection revealing tensions between academics, practitioners and activists. Its four co-authors have lived in and with these tensions, analysing practical experiences in the degrowth cooperative Cargonomia (Budapest, Hungary) and the low-tech ecosystem Can Decreix (Cerbère, France). The chapter aims to launch a formal, respectful and significant dialogue between degrowth academics and practitioners. How did an initial public perception of degrowth as activists who experiment-by-doing based in a radical epistemological critique of traditional academia evolve more and more into an academia-dominated movement? We reflect on the movement’s organisation to suggest how deeper collaborative relationships between researchers, activism and practitioners might strengthen degrowth as an academic field, enhance the credibility and robustness of grounded prefigurat

We report striking discoveries of numerous seafloor seeps of climate-reactive fluid and gases in the coastal Ross Sea, indicating this process may be a common phenomenon in the region. We establish the recent emergence of many of these seep features, based on their discovery in areas routinely surveyed for decades with no previous seep presence. Additionally, we highlight impacts to the local benthic ecosystem correlated to seep presence and discuss potential broader implications. With these discoveries, our understanding of Antarctic seafloor seeps shifts from them being rare phenomenon to seemingly widespread, and an important question is raised about the driver of seep emergence in the region. While the origin and underlying mechanisms of these emerging seep systems remains unknown, similar processes in the paleo-record and the Arctic have been attributed to climate-driven cryospheric change. Such a mechanism may be widespread around the Antarctic Continent, with concerning positive feedbacks that are curr

Five of the seven breached planetary boundaries are linked to food systems. By transforming production and adopting a “planetary health diet,” we can halve food-related climate emissions and prevent millions of deaths, according to the 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission.

US president’s son-in-law was instrumental in getting deal – which could bring him huge windfall if plan to redevelop Gaza ever comes to fruition […] For a man with no formal role in the White House, Jared Kushner last week literally took centre-stage as Donald Trump’s emissary to the Middle East. As the administration took a victory lap for hammering out a Gaza ceasefire last week, Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, stood in Tel Aviv’s ‘hostages square’, addressing a feverish crowd that had booed the mention of Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and later broke into chants of: “Thank You Trump!”

Daniel P. Aldrich (born 1974) is an academic in the fields of political science, public policy and Asian studies. He is currently full professor of political science and public policy at Northeastern University.[1] Aldrich has held several Fulbright fellowships, including a Fulbright Distinguished Chair in Applied Public Policy (Democratic Resilience) at Flinders University in Australia in 2023,[2] a Fulbright Specialist[3] in Trinidad-Tobago in 2018, a Fulbright research fellowship at the University of Tokyo's Economic's Department for the 2012–2013 academic year, and a IIE Fulbright Dissertation Fellowship in Tokyo in 2002–2003. His research, prompted in part by his own family's experience of Hurricane Katrina,[4] explores how communities around the world respond to and recover from disaster.

CO2 in air hit new high last year, with scientists concerned natural land and ocean carbon sinks are weakening

Unless global heating is reduced to 1.2C ‘as fast as possible’, warm water coral reefs will not remain ‘at any meaningful scale’, a report by 160 scientists from 23 countries warns

GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS REPORT - 2025

GLOBAL TIPPING POINTS REPORT 2025 - Summary

We are an international group of researchers and practitioners interested in the emerging fields of post-growth and ecological macroeconomics. Our aim is to advance economic theory, methodology and policy in order to adequately address some of the biggest challenges of our time: climate change, rising inequality, and financial instability.

Author Adam Greenfield demonstrates the power of mutual aid and community networks, but they lack to power to fundamentally change societyIn his book Lifehouse, Adam Greenfield shows that ordinary people are capable of organising themselves and running their own lives even in the most difficult circumstances.

The World Sufficiency Lab is a non-profit and independent think-to-do tank, whose mission is to serve as the primary resource and voice for sufficiency worldwide.

Why Environmental Writing Isn’t Resonating As Much Anymore Active hope, not optimism. And why facts alone no longer move people. Environmental pieces aren’t landing like they used to. Writers, researchers, and activists are noticing the shift: climate content that once sparked engagement now fades into the background. The question isn’t whether people care about the planet — it’s that many readers are moving past narratives of awareness and individual action (or at least I think they should!). They want to understand power. They want to understand systems. They want hope rooted in collective transformation, not optimism sold as personal therapy. We Know the Planet Is Dying. So Now What?

If atmospheric CO2 levels exceed 1,200 parts per million (ppm), it could push the Earth’s climate over a “tipping point”, finds a new study. This would see clouds that shade large part of the oceans start to break up.

.. the real risk of geoengineering is not some Hollywood-style catastrophe, but complacency. A cheap way to delay the effects of warming risks undermining the need to rapidly reduce emissions, and going down that path would risk locking our children into a dependency where even stopping the process becomes too expensive to contemplate...

We make meaningful climate action faster and easier by mobilizing the global tech community to track greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with unprecedented detail.

Much attention today focuses on uncertainties affecting the future evolution of oil and natural gas demand, with less consideration given to how the supply picture could develop. However, understanding decline rates – the annual rate at which production declines from existing oil and gas fields – is crucial for assessing the outlook for oil and gas supply and, by extension, for market balances. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has long examined this issue, and a detailed understanding of decline rates is at the heart of IEA modelling and analysis, underpinning the insights provided by the scenarios in the World Energy Outlook. This new report – based on analysis of the production records of around 15 000 oil and gas fields around the world – explores the implications of accelerating decline rates, growing reliance on unconventional resources, and evolving project development patterns for the global oil and gas supply landscape, for energy security and for investment. It also provides regional insights

This paper analyses General Social Survey (United States) data and provides evidence that the advent of Facebook and other social media platforms has widened the gap in scepticism towards science between low-educated Americans and their more highly educated counterparts. The same trend holds true when considering distrust in medicine, the press and television. Overall, the results suggest that education may serve as a protective factor against the influence of fake news, disinformation and misinformation. Additionally, a heterogeneity analysis shows that the increase in distrust is particularly pronounced among young people. Further analyses reveal that political affiliation plays a role in shaping attitudes towards science and that the likelihood of voting for the Republican Party has increased among low-educated individuals. A comprehensive set of robustness and placebo tests supports the reliability of these findings.

Activist tells Swedish officials she has been subjected to harsh treatment, including insufficient food and water

Four key parts of the Earth’s climate system are destabilising, according to a new study with contributions from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Researchers analysed the interconnections of four major tipping elements: the Greenland ice sheet, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the Amazon rainforest and the South American monsoon system. All four show signs of diminished resilience, raising the risk of abrupt and potentially irreversible changes.

Some narratives in international development hold that ending poverty and achieving good lives for all will require every country to reach the levels of GDP per capita that currently characterise high-income countries. However, this would require increasing total global output and resource use several times over, dramatically exacerbating ecological breakdown. Furthermore, universal convergence along these lines is unlikely within the imperialist structure of the existing world economy. Here we demonstrate that this dilemma can be resolved with a different approach, rooted in recent needs-based analyses of poverty and development. Strategies for development should not pursue capitalist growth and increased aggregate production as such, but should rather increase the specific forms of production that are necessary to improve capabilities and meet human needs at a high standard, while ensuring universal access to key goods and services through public provisioning and decommodification. At the same time, in high

Chapter 5 in the Routledge Handbook of Degrowth (2025) sketches the French origins of, and approaches to, décroissance. In France, décroissance emerged early – as part of the long history of debates on the industrialisation of the world and its impacts, and of a shorter history of political ecology over the last half-century. Although inspired by a long genealogy questioning the Western industrial trajectory, the word décroissance really came to the fore in the French protest and intellectual scene in 2002, with a convergence between anti-development and anti-advertising movements. Even if degrowth as a slogan and as a movement only emerged recently, its origins, influences, pioneers, pillars and debates were already very strong in the 1970s. After a long hiatus in the 1980s and 1990s, the term décroissance spread spectacularly, entering the political and activist arena at the beginning of the 21st century, designating a sub-group of political ecologists committed to criticising economic development as the do

Sophisticated global networks are infiltrating journals to publish fake papers

We live in a world of worry. The ongoing Covid-19 pan­demic, having driven reversals in human development in almost every country, continues to spin off variants unpre­dictably. War in Ukraine and elsewhere has created more human suffering. Record-breaking temperatures, fires, storms and floods sound the alarm of planetary systems increasingly out of whack. Together, they are fuelling a cost-of-living crisis felt around the world, painting a pic­ture of uncertain times and unsettled lives.

The planet is nearing dangerous limits. Yet progress on clean energy shows what’s possible. With political will, cooperation can still avert the worst of the climate crisis

EU officials warn climate breakdown and wildlife loss ‘are ruining ecosystems that underpin the economy’ […] The European way of life is being jeopardised by environmental degradation, a report has found, with EU officials warning against weakening green rules. The continent has made “important progress” in cutting planet-heating pollution, according to the European Environment Agency, but the death of wildlife and breakdown of the climate are ruining ecosystems that underpin the economy.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has described her plan to “maximise extraction” of the UK’s oil and gas from the North Sea as a “common sense” energy policy. Politicians are using language like this increasingly often – calling themselves “pragmatic” on climate change and invoking “common sense”. It sounds reasonable, reassuring, and grownup – the opposite of “hysterical” campaigners or “unrealistic” targets.

The Production Gap Report finds that 10 years after the Paris Agreement, governments plan to produce more than double the volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, steering the world further from the Paris goals than the last such assessment in 2023.

A California outfit has used artificial intelligence to design viral genomes before they were then built and tested in a laboratory. Following this, bacteria was then successfully infected with a number of these AI-created viruses, proving that generative models can create functional genetics. "The first generative design of complete genomes." That's what researchers at Stanford University and the Arc Institute in Palo Alto called the results of these experiments. A biologist at NYU Langone Health, Jef Boeke, celebrated the experiment as a substantial step towards AI-designed lifeforms, according to MIT Technology Review. "They saw viruses with new genes, with truncated genes, and even different gene orders and arrangements," Boeke said.

The vast ice of Antarctica has long seemed impregnable. But sudden changes are arriving – from shrinking sea ice to melting ice sheets and slowing ocean currents.

The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates

Analysis and forecast to 2030

Focus on capital discipline, increasing customer centricity, and investments in new technologies may help companies navigate economic, geopolitical, and regulatory uncertainties in 2025

Report cites scale of killings and aid blockages, and calls on member countries to punish those responsible

Predictably, soon, most young people will reject extremist views. This will be none too soon because it is the essential step leading to global political leadership that appreciates the threat posed by climate’s delayed response to human-made changes of Earth’s atmosphere. Then the annual fraud of goals for future “net zero” emissions announced at United Nations COP (Conference of Parties) meetings might be replaced by realistic climate policies. It is important, by that time, that we have better knowledge of the degree and rate at which human-made forcing of the climate system must be decreased to avoid irreversible, unacceptable consequences.

A UN commission has found Israel’s war in Gaza ranks among history’s greatest crimes. The UK government must stop hiding behind legal fictions and recognise the reality

Legal analysis has accused Israel of committing genocide in four out of five categories as defined by 1948 convention

Several, more recent global warming projections in the coupled model intercomparison project 6 contain extensions beyond year 2100–2300/2500. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in these projections shows transitions to extremely weak overturning below the surface mixed layer (<6 Sv; 1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1) in all models forced by a high-emission (SSP585) scenario and sometimes also forced by an intermediate- (SSP245) and low-emission (SSP126) scenario. These extremely weak overturning states are characterised by a shallow maximum overturning at depths less than 200 m and a shutdown of the circulation associated with North Atlantic deep water formation. Northward Atlantic heat transport at 26°N decreases to 20%–40% of the current observed value. Heat release to the atmosphere north of 45°N weakens to less than 20% of its present-day value and in some models completely vanishes, leading to strong cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic and Northwest Europe. In all cases, these transitions to a

The Palestinian perspective: Israel is committing not only human violence, but also climate violence: genocide and ecocide.

Facebook and other social media platforms need to act to stop intimidation and harassment of environmental protectors

"What we are seeing is compelling evidence that the climate crisis is not just an environmental emergency, it is potentially a neurological one."

The growth in US power demand is surging to its highest rate in decades, driven first by the electrification of oil and gas production and then by the build out of data centers. While still below the 5-10% growth seen in China, the world’s first “electrostate," the US power sector is experiencing rapid structural growth. The country is delivering more than a 3.5% annual power demand growth rate for the first time in several decades, potentially positioning the US as the world’s next “electrostate,” despite the strong oil and gas focus of the Trump administration.

President Donald Trump has been sending campaign fundraising emails with the subject line: “I want to try and get to Heaven.” The emails follow recent public remarks regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine, in which he said he was trying to “get to heaven,” comments which gained national attention. Framing his political survival and legal battles as signs of divine purpose, the emails request supporters to donate $15 during a “24-HOUR TRUMP FUNDRAISING BLITZ.”

Our modelling of European fish species shows a patchwork of winners and losers as sea temperatures rise.

In a simulation game, five off-the-shelf large language models or LLMs were confronted with fictional crisis situations that resembled Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or China’s threat to Taiwan. The results? Almost all of the AI models showed a preference to escalate aggressively, use firepower indiscriminately and turn crises into shooting wars — even to the point of launching nuclear weapons.

– how climate scientists and the IPCC still won’t tell the truth about accelerating climate change.

Farming seaweed, changing ocean chemistry, breeding corals and restoring mangroves could help fight climate change – if assessed and managed responsibly.

The global economy could face a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090, unless immediate policy action on risks posed by the climate crisis is taken. Populations are already impacted by food system shocks, water insecurity, heat stress and infectious diseases. If unchecked, mass mortality, mass displacement, severe economic contraction and conflict become more likely.

Climate.gov, which went dark this summer, to be revived by volunteers as climate.us with expanded missionEarlier this summer, access to climate.gov – one of the most widely used portals of climate information on the internet – was thwarted by the Trump administration, and its production team was fired in the process.

Purpose Animal emissions account for nearly 60% of total greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock sector. To estimate these emissions, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) developed a dedicated module within the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). Although previous studies have explored selected inputs for specific animals and emission types, a comprehensive analysis of all 92 inputs (parameters and emission factors) had not been conducted. This study aimed to identify the most influential inputs affecting ruminant emissions in GLEAM.

Global risk management for human prosperity

Trump’s dictator-like behaviour is so brazen, so blatant, that paradoxically, we discount it. But now it’s time to call it what it is

The 511 billion barrels reported is nearly double Saudi Arabia’s proven reserves and more than ten times the North Sea’s output over the last 50 years.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important tipping element in the climate system. There is a large uncertainty whether the AMOC will start to collapse during the century under future climate change, as this requires long climate model simulations which are not always available. Here, we analyze targeted climate model simulations done with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the aim to develop a physics-based indicator for the onset of an AMOC tipping event. This indicator is diagnosed from the surface buoyancy fluxes over the North Atlantic Ocean and is performing successfully under quasi-equilibrium freshwater forcing, freshwater pulse forcing, climate change scenarios, and for different climate models. An analysis consisting of 25 different climate models shows that the AMOC could begin to collapse by 2063 (from 2026 to 2095, to percentiles) under an intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), or by 2055 (from 2023 to 2076, to percentiles) under a high-end emission scenar

Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout

Gains in cutting deaths from tuberculosis at risk as health officials warn clinics forced to ration drugs and testing

The planet is edging close to irreversible change, according to the most comprehensive probability analysis yet of climate “tipping points.”

Suspension of Soy moratorium could open up area of rainforest the size of Portugal to destruction